Effect of Russian bombing in Syria - lots of damage/casualties, little military effect
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...P=share_btn_fb …
Wonder if Putin reads The Guardian???
Damascus Airstrikes hit market of Bazyna in eastern Ghouta
-35 dead counted
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y-oNxuogTw …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33...40556&z=16&m=b …
Aleppo #FSA took over Mazra`at Qarah from #IslamicState
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq40khMhy8Q …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...34640&z=14&m=b …
To CrowBat
Only by reducing or eliminating this likelihood can Iran and the Shia militias be induced to stand down.Originally Posted by CrowBat
Well, as with Mossadegh, Arbenz and Allende, the runway was too short to tell. As I noted, Lebanon provides an obviously flawed but instructive model for a future Syria.
I don't see the Kurds having the numbers. However, the Kurds keeping their hands out of the cookie jar would be a prerequisite to defeating the Islamic State, in addition to putting a halt to Shia cleansing as well.
I'm personally in favor of redrawing borders right and left. But the primary beneficiaries of dissolving Iraq, Lebanon, Syria (and quite possibly Jordan) as we know them would be Russia (Donbass, Narva, Crimea officially) and China (Taiwan, perhaps Malaysia and Singapore), not to mention a host of other irridentist spoilers.
Look what the so-called "Kosovo precedent" did. Nor were Kosovar Albanians even allowed to join with their brethren across the border. So all that created was another artificial state with centrifugal tendencies.
On a side note, how do you feel about the PAAMS/Aster naval air defense combo, and how would it stack up against Aegis/Standard and the S-300? Aster looks good on paper, but I've heard there are major issues. Again, I know that the true performance of Western air defense systems are as guarded as the decibels of a Virginia SSN...
Now the Russians are hiding behind: was it us or the SyAAF?
Will use the experience of eastern Ukraine when the Russians pulled this with their "vacationers" and the it ain't us drill..
If it is a Russian made tank in this case a Russia made jet, if the pilot is Russian and or trained by Russia and the jet is maintained by Russian parts and is dropping Russian made bombs.
THEN it is simple--it was Russian end of story.......
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-22-2015 at 10:54 PM.
Report
25 killed, 50 injured in another "#RussianAirstrike" in #EastGhouta today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws3hqJxkdI4 …
pic.twitter.com/7bxkOE7pTD
Early this year, a former top WH official secretly went to Damascus and met with leaders of the Syrian regime http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ngton-insiders …
Footage
Aid organ. says #Russia bombed its depot in #EastGhouta today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mJES9sBQBY …
Footage
Syrian rebel once again captured #Qarah from #ISIS, despite Russian strikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq40khMhy8Q …
It's more that Russians are claiming that it is often difficult to distinguish SyAAF from RuAF jets and helicopters, especially when their roundels cannot be visually confirmed...
So the reputation of the SyAAF is going to be thrown under the bus...a small price to pay for having with VVS beside you...
BREAKING: Several reports of a chemical weapons attack in town of Muadamiyat al-Sham. #Syria. -
http://twitter.com/ValkryV/status/67...414213/video/1 …
MORE: Town is located SW of Damascus, near Darayya which has been under near constant attack by government forces.
Amir Siavachi, an IRGC field commander reportedly killed in southern #Aleppo yesterday.
IRGC captain Ismail Khan Alizadeh killed by revolutionary forces in rural South Aleppo.
Assad is running out of soldiers it seems.......
The #Syria|n Regime Forcibly Recruits Civilians in Regions under its Control
http://sn4hr.org/blog/2015/12/22/15807/ …
FSA 1st Coastal Div trying to repel regime advance near Tal Ghazaleh in Jabal al-Akrad, #Latakia
http://youtu.be/zDALnkoNzV4
Assad-Putin compete with #ISIL in destroying Syria's heritage sites. Pic from Busra al-Sham castle air attacked tody
Unconfirmed.......
Reports #ISIL downed unidentified jet over Qalamoun Mount near Dair Atiya #Syria.
Syrian organisation counts 1399 civilian victims among Syrians from #RussianAirstrikes, disputes SOHR figures. https://twitter.com/dorarshami/statu...41153415077889 …
FRANCE 24 English ✔ @France24_en
Amnesty accuses Russia of killing hundreds of civilians in Syria bomb raids
http://f24.my/22phUMI
pic.twitter.com/WUM5BVgPTt
'Russian air strikes killed 100s of civilians striking homes, mosques, markets & medical facilities' Amnesty says
pic.twitter.com/ZksSkwM95q
Latest @amnesty report is a #MustRead on #Syria.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...lian-killings/ …
#PutinAtWar The world knows it! pic.twitter.com/Y9XRSPopLV
.@amnesty and @hrw say #Russia commits #WarCrimes in #Syria.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...lian-killings/ …
https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/20/...ster-munitions …
International reaction: ZERO
Victims gasping for air trying to survive aftermath of #SAA Toxic Gas attack
#Moadamiyah_alsham #Syria Dec23
WARNING GRAPHIC
People bleeding from nose without any other injuries.
Probably chemical attack. #Damascus #Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBipzVHTIEg …
SCD identified so far 5 martyrs aftermath of #SAA BARREL BOMB filled w/TOXIC GAS on #Moadamiyah_alsham #Syria Dec23 pic.twitter.com/fNgxUAmMP9
Breaking #Syria
Extreme regime attacks incl. possible chemical attack on Moadamiya, west #Damascus
Arabic report: pic.twitter.com/FjTQkU5qlw
BREAKING: Reports of a chemical weapons attack in town of Muadamiyat al-Sham. #Syria.
pic.twitter.com/oKiPe7gtJE
Russia killed 100's of civilians in Syria & fabricated info to deflect criticism. New report
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...lian-killings/ … pic.twitter.com/TNhurMXYKx
THIS is the evidence that I am right that the entire Western political leadership has basically lost their combined way forward when it comes to the killing by Russia of hundreds of civilians......
See Russia's main argument, international community!!!
You fail(ed) so much, France, German, US & co.
pic.twitter.com/0zs6Id39ll
THIS is exactly just how bad the Obama WH global leadership has fallen to.
#BREAKING
Russian Federation Council’s Committee on Defense & Security DARES to call @amnesty report "provocation".
12 ppl killed in this toxic gas attack okayed by #UNSC resolution 2254 provided political cover for Assad, Iran & Russia to massacre Syrians
There have been 60+ small scale govt chemical attacks on frontline rebel towns/defences over last year
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-23-2015 at 12:46 PM.
...have read several such reports the last few days...
It's actually hard to say if they're really 'overstretched'. In essence, they've 'killed' two out of four prongs of regime's offensive on Idlib, NE Lattakia and Southern Aleppo: these are advances on al-Ghab Plain and in northern Lattakia.
Regime is still making some minor gains in NE Lattakia, but the FSyA has re-organized its local troops, and was meanwhile reinforced by the AAS and the JAN there, and I do not see the NDF and SSNP punching through there (at least not without renewed involvement of the Russian Army and Hezbollah, which appears to have caused about 150 KIA to these two alone).
Overall, the insurgent situation there is 'tense' but not even 'critical'.
The situation in southern Aleppo is the one to worry about, there's no doubt about this. Iranian Jihadists have concentrated no less but eight brigades of Hezbollah/Iraq there, plus at least one brigade of the 4th Armoured Division, apparently a brigade of Hezbollah/Lebanon too. That's nearly two full divisions - even by IRGC's standards. It's clear such a mass of forces is a major threat on its own, even more so considering this force avanced for nearly 20km into what is de-facto 'insurgent backyard'.
But, while IRGC-run units enjoy an advantage in firepower over insurgents in open terrain, the closer they've got to build-up areas along the M5 highway, the costlier this enterprise became. So, this offensive was stopped short of M5 highway about a week ago, and despite launching some 4-5 really massive attacks by infantry, supported even by a company of T-90s (not only the usual T-72s, that are now operated by Hezbollah/Lebanon), the IRGC and Hezbollah forces there failed to make any additional gains ever since (on the contrary, they've suffered really heavy losses in several of insurgent counterattacks).
Overall: except they haul additional brigades there (on the top of the three flown in to Syria this month, one of which was deployed in Eastern Ghouta, though), I do not see them punching through there. With very few exceptions (all from back in 2013), IRGC's commanders in Syria have not proven particularly imaginative, or even skilled: this offensive was launched on a much too wide front, and holding of all of these new frontlines is gulping too much of manpower which they simply do not have. Plus, IRGC-run unit are constantly failing to exploit opportunities (example: they're terribly slow in advancing once they've punched through one part of insurgent frontlines).
On the contrary: ex-SyAA officers running the FSyA are proving themselves much more skilled than anybody expected (makes one curious how much of Syrian military's bad reputation is actually caused by idiotic Assadists), and even the AAS and JAN are now listening to them. And also: insurgents have shown to be very quick in re-establishing their frontlines and stabilizing these if the enemy breaches through; they're patrolling, they're launching counterattacks etc. Finally, they have more reserves than usually thought (putting a huge question mark over various British assessments concluding 'there're no 70,000 moderate insurgents in Syria').
So, yes, insurgents are 'under severe pressure', no doubt about this. And these are some very hard times for them (perhaps hardest ever). But - and also thanks to hopelessly incompetent deployment of Russian airpower (which is wasting thousands of bombs to target civilians all over Aleppo, Idlib, and in Eastern Ghouta instead of providing CAS to Iranian/Iraqi Jihadists in southern Aleppo) - I do not see them as 'overstretched'.
Last edited by CrowBat; 12-23-2015 at 11:56 AM.
Taken from the 100% Russian government owned info war media outlet.....
"Sputnik International"........
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20...#ixzz3v8zdUkGh
Syrians Made Their Choice: 'Assad is Their Man for Now and Into the Future'
Middle East
13:28 23.12.2015(updated 13:46 23.12.2015)
The Obama administration might claim that the peace process in Syria could only start once Assad is gone but the Syrians want their president to stay because he is the one making every effort to prevent the country from falling apart, David Macilwain wrote for Information Clearing House.
"Syrians have already decided – Assad is their man, for now and into the future, helping to rebuild the society he has worked so hard to save from the terrorist armies of the 'Western allies.' Syrians know that their survival is because of Assad – not in spite of him," Macilwain asserted.
Western political and military leaders, as well as mass media offer a different picture. They claim that Assad and the Alawites are oppressing other religious groups in Syria. This is supposedly the main reason behind the 2011 insurgency.
Ex-Pentagon Chief Hagel Knew Ousting Assad ‘Insanely Foolish’ - Former White House Advisor
Macilwain remains unconvinced since Syria is a secular country, which was not troubled by sectarian violence prior to the war.
"Until the stirring up of sectarian tensions by the foreign fomenters of the armed insurgency many Syrians didn't even know, or care about their neighbors' religious affiliation — much as in the secular democracies of the West," he explained.
Macilwain offers another example to support the idea that Assad is not the problem:
"Emphasizing the secular character of Syrian society, and quite contrary to the pervasive western fairy tales, the religious affiliations of both government and army members broadly reflect that of the community as a whole, with a majority being Sunni Muslim. And apart from leading a government which is not 'Alawite,' President Assad has led by example – his wife Asma is a Sunni Muslim too."
This could well explain why the Syrians voted for Assad at the first multicandidate presidential election in the country's history, which was held in June 2014. This could also explain why the West does not want Assad to take part in the UN-supervised free and fair presidential poll.
The upcoming election is part of a peace plan outlined in a recently-adopted UN Security Council resolution. It is expected to take place after all stakeholders secure a ceasefire in the war-torn country.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-23-2015 at 12:23 PM.
Nope. Sorry, but this is simply wrong.
IRGC's Jihadists - whether 'genuine' Iranians, or Hezbollah/Iraq - have absolutely nothing to do in Syria. They're no 'equalizers', but worse in regards of sectarianism than Assad: contrary to average Syrians, Shi'a Jihadists are not used to live next-door to such a colourful mix of ethnic and religious groups, like Syrian are. They're not there to 'protect' anybody, but with the aim of speading Khamenei's ideology of Shi'a statehood controlling the Fertile Crescent, to maintain that 'bridge to Hezbollah' etc., and their presence is actually counteproductive for the future of not only Alawites, but also any other minorities that have sided with Assadists.
Indeed, I would go as far as to say: the more of them get there, the more Syrians they kill, the worse it's going to be - for Alawites - once this brawl is over.
Actually, the 'runway' was perfectly long enough to show that it did work. As mentioned above: even the Jewish Agency was signing contracts with that state. Such things are not happening without reasons.Well, as with Mossadegh, Arbenz and Allende, the runway was too short to tell. As I noted, Lebanon provides an obviously flawed but instructive model for a future Syria.
Don't get me wrong now (because of the following title), but read it here: Arabs & Israel for Beginners - and you'll see what I'm talking about.
This is long since only about foreign support (i.e. 'not about numbers'), and that's what Kurds are meanwhile getting more than enough.I don't see the Kurds having the numbers. However, the Kurds keeping their hands out of the cookie jar would be a prerequisite to defeating the Islamic State, in addition to putting a halt to Shia cleansing as well.
I don't mind it. But again: once one starts... where's the end?I'm personally in favor of redrawing borders right and left....
No idea, really. I know a little bit about Aegis, but generally, I've got very little clue about any weapons systems not used in combat in the Middle East and Africa of the last, say, 40 years.On a side note, how do you feel about the PAAMS/Aster naval air defense combo, and how would it stack up against Aegis/Standard and the S-300?
Last edited by CrowBat; 12-23-2015 at 12:18 PM.
Keep in mind the @amnesty report documented SIX Russian massacres with 200 civilian deaths.
Real number is MUCH higher as we know.
Russian logic: we did not target civilians in Syria, because otherwise international community would have said so...
Heavy humor.......
Lavrov: '#Amnesty & HRW are #CIA-backed organizations which hate #Russia, dead people on #Syria videos are actors'
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Amnesty's new report agrees with @bellingcat's assessment Russia lied about bombing a mosque https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...illings/<br /> …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-23-2015 at 01:01 PM.
IN addition to use of chemical weapons and WP on civilian targets......
Russia should stop defending the use of banned cluster munitions.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/12/23/...contradictions …
BUT WAIT both cluster munitions and WP were used against the Ukrainian Armed Forces/civilians AND the WEST said nothing......
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-23-2015 at 01:08 PM.
Russian MoD wishful thinking and a lot of Russian Orthodox prayers.....
T-90 in south #Aleppo managed to neutralise TOW? Propaganda.
The TOW is optically wire guided thus unaffected by what the Russians mount for anti TOW devices outside of the add on retro armor packs....but some TOW missile versions have a tandem warhead to defeat even that.
BUT the FSA has not reported any fired TOWs against T90s (outside of a T72 that had the longer T90 barrel but was hard to ID at the long distance of the video which made an ID hard)that had been hit in the engine area a completely self destructed.
SO again Russian propaganda........
Reference the Russian Private military Company Wagner in Syria....
Some speculate recent spike of Lukoil jet trips to Iran is testimony of transfer of PMC assets to the region / assignment / etc
...and a simple fact is: neither Macilwain nor anybody else (including me) can know - precisely because Assad is an oppressive dictator that has never permitted any kind of free and fair elections to be held in Syria. Period.
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