Firn,

Thanks for that update (above) and a "lurker" has pointed out a different, though similar viewpoint in today's Daily Telegraph:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...escalates.html

It appears to rely heavily on Dr Alsweilem, now at Harvard University's Belfer Centre.

I have not checked the McKinsey report you cite, but the article has this almost IMHO laughable suggestion attributed to McKinsey:
a McKinsey study – ‘Beyond Oil’ - that sketches how the country can break its unhealthy dependence on crude, and double GDP by 2030 with a $4 trillion investment blitz across eight industries, from petrochemicals to metals, steel, aluminium smelting, cars, electrical manufacturing, tourism, and healthcare.