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Thread: Syria in 2016 (January-March)

  1. #2001
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    Tracing the supply of components used in Islamic State bombs
    http://www.conflictarm.com/wp-conten...State_IEDs.pdf
    pic.twitter.com/wQSWB8I9aq


    bellingcat @bellingcat

    Reaper Drones Revealed to Be Operating from Jordan via @bellingcat

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...rating-jordan/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 07:21 AM.

  2. #2002
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian military tactics in Syria are actually those practiced in both Georgia 2008 and in Chechnya.....

    #Syria: Under #Russia's fist - deliberate targeting of civilians
    http://wp.me/ppCFZ-ca5 via @im_PULSE

    AND the Obama WH certainly did not realize Putin would do this right????

    And these are the Syrian Kurds a US proxy in #AynDaqnah fighting the #FSA ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nEOpVG2zTk … pic.twitter.com/Ig12au0N76

    Footage
    #FSA vs #YPG in #TallRifat last night.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_Qm0ag88zA
    pic.twitter.com/t3k29hXchW
    YPG forces in Ayn Daqnah get a hard time.
    Turkish backed rebels with pro mortar position.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx2xhMYI7u8
    pic.twitter.com/ZCEQOSiMwq

    Syrian Afghani Army mercenary captured by rebels west #Aleppo countryside.
    pic.twitter.com/ZyKNdUXFtd
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 07:45 AM.

  3. #2003
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    Telling...and the US keeps on telling the Turks and the FSA that they have the YPG under control....sure?????

    YPG not just coordinating with Assad/IRGC/RuAF now but also conducting joint ops against rebels from its territories


    Graphic: RuAF kill a whole family in Qabtian al-Jabal last night before IRGC/YPG ground atck
    https://youtu.be/gFGa67gw4rM

    PYD mocking Islamic rituals in mosques after their capture of areas of Aleppo & displacing Arabs

    From yesterday....
    Aleppo: ISIS blows up another car carrying Assad forces with IED on Ithriya/Khannaser road. That's like the 4th car today...


    Iranian revolutionary guards general Hamza Al Kadimi killed in #Syria

  4. #2004
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    Why is it that Obama and Kerry strangely do not "see the Iranian connections" in the various Arab Sunni nation states.....do they not believe in a Iranian non linear sectarian war?????

    Kerry desperate as Saudi sends jets to Syria via Turkey-

    Kerry: "we have stopped shipment of weapons coming from Iran to Yemen"

    BTW the Saudi's stopped many more than the US has.....actually the US have said little about these shipments for the last ten months or so..wonder why...I forgot....Iran Deal...

    Way to little.....way to late.

  5. #2005
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    Renewed airstrikes by Russian jets in Saraqeb, Idlib & Atareb, Aleppo & by Assad helicopters in Teirma'ala, Homs this morning. #Syria

    Russian airstrikes, Assad artillery & rocket fire targeting Douma, Marj & Bala this AM. Heavy clashes continue in Marj & Bala. #Damascus

    Regime & Iranian led militias tried to advance into Qubtan al-Jabal & Sheikh Aqil in western #Aleppo under Russia air cover after midnight

    A tank was reportedly destroyed, 8 killed & an Afghani fighter captured. Clashes still ongoing on outskirts. #Aleppo

    Rebels say the regime attack was coordinated with Jaish al-Thuwar & Kurdish forces

    Reports Turkish artillery targeted YPG positions near Munbatih in Tal Abyad, #Raqqa, #Syria

    FSA 1st Coastal Div launching mortar shells at regime positions in Kinsaba, rural #Latakia, #Syria
    http://youtu.be/BKiYm8tB2DM

    Regime & Iranian led militias tried to advance into Qubtan al-Jabal & Sheikh Aqil in western #Aleppo under Russia air cover after midnight

  6. #2006
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    Breakingnews || 10 air-strikes on #Douma_city now caused injuries.

    Important read re: MOC-FSA dynamics:
    http://www.thenational.ae/world/midd...bel-ranks#full

    Islamic State operated 122mm D-30, 130mm M-46 and T-55 in action around Khanaser in the past couple of days

  7. #2007
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    The pretend ceasefire in #Syria #Obama #Putin
    http://mme.cm/LXAW00 via @KyleWOrton

    The pretend ceasefire in Syria

    A ceasefire in Syria cannot work, but there are diplomatic gains from pretending it can

    February 25, 2016

    The Syrian ceasefire, which the United States and Russia agreed on February 12 and which was supposed to take effect on February 19, had seemed to amount to little more than granting Russia a week of internationally-legitimated time to press its aggression against Aleppo and then blame the rebellion for breaking the ceasefire when the rebels refused to freeze the fighting on the new frontlines. Of course, it has turned out worse than that: with the agreement of another ceasefire on February 22, due to take effect on February 27 at midnight, Russia has had two weeks to make gains.

    As it happens, the Russian-enabled offensive against Aleppo by the pro-regime coalition—led by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and various foreign Shiite jihadist forces under IRGC control, including Lebanese Hezbollah, various Iraqi militias, and Afghan Hazara refugees—has somewhat stalled.

    It was always doubtful that the pro-regime forces could militarily crush the rebellion in Aleppo; the presence of foreign forces is strongly indicative of the regime’s shortage in manpower. And even if the moderate opposition in Aleppo could be destroyed, the regime could not hold the territory—thereby creating a vacuum that would inevitably be filled by ISIS.

    As it was, the pro-regime coalition was even weaker than it appeared, losing ground to ISIS in areas it had already ostensibly secured, namely As-Safira Plains in southern Rif Aleppo. In late 2013, the regime pushed the rebels from As-Safira, claiming it was retaking a local chemical weapons production facility and shoring-up a path to the coast so it could ship its chemical weapons out of the country, in accordance with the deal Russia made on Assad's behalf, which spared Assad from airstrikes in retribution for the Ghouta massacre and re-legitimized Assad as a partner in chemical disarmament.

    On the evening of February 21, Jund al-Aqsa (JAA), Imarat Kavkaz v Sham (Caucasus Emirate in Syria), the Turkistan Islamic Party, and ISIS attacked the pro-Assad forces’ supply line along the Aleppo-Khanaser road and captured various points. (All of the non-ISIS groups here are at least foreign-led, if not majority-foreign, and are affiliated with al-Qaeda, except for JAA. Last week, essentially the entire senior leadership of JAA and numerous fighters—apparently encompassing about 40% of the group—defected to Jabhat al-Nusra, the official al-Qaeda branch in Syria. This might be because JAA had shown signs of slowly being taken over by ISIS; certainly ISIS had infiltrators in JAA and the rump of JAA appears to be pro-ISIS.)

    The Russians, therefore, might actually be happy now to have a bit of breathing room to consolidate before they push on. After all, the main aim of Moscow's intervention—to secure Assad—has been achieved militarily for the short-term, and the long-term stratagem of rehabilitating Assad internationally by eliminating all non-terrorist insurgents is proceeding apace. A ceasefire cannot work, of course, but there are diplomatic gains from pretending it can, and Russia seems to have taken them all, among other things getting the US to agree with Moscow that any snags preventing a political settlement are the opposition's fault.

    Blaming the opposition for the lack of peace is an old habit of the Obama administration. It is not surprising that it happened over Geneva III, since the process was—as anyone could see, even before it began—fundamentally weighted to the regime because Russia had helped turn facts-on-the-ground so decisively in the regime's favor, at least in its core zones. This meant that either the West forced the opposition to accept the regime's terms for peace (which remain essentially total victory) to keep the process going or the process collapsed.

    The new element is the US using the threat of Russian atrocities to cajole the Syrian opposition into surrender.

    Hadi al-Bahra, the former ETILAF president, said on Wednesday that US Secretary of State John Kerry told the Syrian opposition: "We are clear, if you don't choose be part of [the ceasefire] then you are choosing to perhaps make yourself a target." There are echoes of an incident from earlier this month.

    At the London donor conference for Syria on February 4, according to one of the Syrians who was there, Kerry was asked by a Syrian civil society activist to push the Russians harder to stop (and to stop Assad) bombing and starving civilians. The Higher Negotiating Committee (HNC), the opposition delegation to the Geneva III peace conference, had said it would only sit down with the regime once it stopped its aerial bombardments of civilians and blockading of humanitarian access. But Kerry's policy was that this was an unfair precondition that should be part of the negotiations. Kerry lashed out at any suggestion that the opposition had more to lose by participation: "It's going to get much worse [if HNC refuses to come to the table]. This will continue for three months, and by then the opposition will be decimated."

    When an aid worker pointed out that, rather than the regime de-escalating (as the US did) while the negotiations were going on, the Geneva III process was being used as cover for the pro-regime offensive in Aleppo, Kerry reportedly said that the regime's gains were actually caused by the opposition's refusal to negotiate under fire and starvation-siege. "Don't blame me—go and blame your opposition," the Secretary of State allegedly said to the aid worker (which was later denied by Kerry's spokesman.)

    As the above makes clear, Russia has correctly sensed that the US wants the process of peace rather than having any concept of peace, so Russia has decided to allow them the process, provided Russia can continue to do everything it wanted to do in Syria—and the US has happily played along, even using Russia's threats to checkmate the opposition, which is ostensibly its own side. The most telling example of this was Russia's victory in the wrangling over what to do about al-Nusra during a ceasefire.

    The US had asked for the ceasefire to include a cessation of Russian attacks on al-Nusra, at least initially. Easy to caricature—and for Iranian and Russian propagandists to cast as sinister and indicative—as "America calling for protecting al-Qaeda," it was in fact an attempt to protect the moderate and US-supported Syrian opposition. Al-Nusra has embedded itself into elements of the rebellion and Russia is not wrong—in some areas—that the rebels and al-Nusra are militarily indistinguishable, even if this is a tactical arrangement and not an ideological one. But Russia's aim is not empiricism in service of defeating extremists; it's saving Assad by giving itself political legitimacy to treat all armed opponents of the regime like al-Qaeda. Russia already claims that everything it hits is either al-Qaeda or ISIS. It is for this reason—Moscow's terminal mendacity—that there is any truth in the claim that America was asking for a halt to attacks on al-Qaeda. In order to protect US assets and prevent Russia from making the conflict a binary one between Assad and the terrorists, attacks on al-Nusra had to be stopped, too. As ever, the US caved. The ceasefire allows continued attacks on al-Nusra.

    Foreshadowing how the Nusra exception to the ceasefire will work in practice, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said:

    "We, the ISSG [International Syria Support Group], have been very clear in saying that al-Nusra and Daesh [ISIS] are not part of any kind of ceasefire or any kind of negotiated cessation of hostilities. So if you hang out with the wrong folks, then you make that decision… You choose your own who you hang out with, and that sends a signal."

    In other words, the US gave permission, in advance, for Russia to bomb any armed opposition group it likes and provided Moscow with the ready-made excuse that the group was collaborating with al-Qaeda, so has only itself to blame. Thus, in the last two days the US has sent the message that any rebel not actively fighting al-Nusra and any rebel who resists a peace process by working against them can expect to be bombed by Russia—and the US has no objection to this.

    While the pro-regime side has this massive loophole to continue its war as planned, the rebellion—assuming the US orders rebel units it supports to abide by the ceasefire and once again restricts rebel access to weapons—will be debilitated from protecting itself during the period when they are pretending there's a ceasefire, and will be politically and militarily weaker afterwards. If Syrians come to see US policy as collusion with Russia to put down the rebellion, they can be forgiven.

    If Syrians come to see US policy as collusion with Russia to put down the rebellion, they can be forgiven.
    NOTE: the article I posted yesterday from Hof via the Atlantic Council was attempting to address the Syrian "perception" that in fact the US and Russia have a "secret handshake" and those that have worked the ME...know Arabs tend to believe anything/everything via "perception" and right now I am sorry the "perception is Obama is selling out the Syrians so he can clear his inbox for his legacy"...........
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 08:22 AM.

  8. #2008
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    The small Arab news website, Firil.net has published a very interesting graph, listing no less but 360.000 foreigners sent to Syria to fight for Assad in the last five years...

    Hell, that 'Syrian Arab Army' is even more 'Syrian' than I could ever imagine...
    Attached Images Attached Images

  9. #2009
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    IEDs in Iraq - then and now
    2008:

    http://wp.me/p5vq3r-a3
    2014-16:
    http://www.conflictarm.com/wp-conten...State_IEDs.pdf … by @conflictarm

    IS uses IEDs the way the Russians are using their TBMs...will some solid effects especially in their current fighting with Assad forces near Aleppo and in Iraqi cities they control.

  10. #2010
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    A symbol: this week 75% of #TOW used so far in #Aleppo province were vs #YPG targets (& 60% of TOW used in whole Northern #Syria). Big shift

    Absolute must read: Five rebel spokesmen, commanders react to 'cessation of hostilities' to take effect Saturday
    http://syriadirect.org/news/five-reb...MO3y9U.twitter
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 08:39 AM.

  11. #2011
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    In view of the recent Turkish statements about their national security being threatened by YPG and now this FSA statement....linkage is afoot and the US can do nothing about it and the Obama WH has now fully sided with their Kurdish proxy against both Turkish and FSA interests....

    YPG Kurdish militia clearly stand on Assad/Russ side. Rebels now consider ops against YPG held territories as legitimate act of self-defence


    Important pre-ceasefire:
    Jabhat al-Nusra has now withdrawn from 6+ towns in #Idlib, inc. Al-Bara, Jebel al-Zawiyeh, Sarmada & Marat Misrin

    Simply put, Nusra is implying civilians are priority, while placing the onus on #Russia & #Assad to spoil ceasefire by bombing #Idlib.

    JaN knew the Russian ceasefire would target them and have been strategically building their air defenses and bunker complexs....

  12. #2012
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    The Nusra exception to the #Syria ceasefire was an important Russian win: means it can bomb who it likes.
    http://mme.cm/LXAW00

    AND naturally Obama and Kerry absolutely did not see this coming at them or did they an agreed???

    The Nusra exception to the #Syria ceasefire was an important Russian win: means it can bomb who it likes.
    http://mme.cm/LXAW00

    NOW we see this in the Russian "I can bomb 90% of rebel areas".....

  13. #2013
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    CrowBat.....that long awaited TOW hit on a T90 video might just be there....there is a report of a 800m TOW hit on a T72 which basically split it in two parts...I have seen the image and the T72 might have been wrongly ID'd and it might in fact be a T90 based on camo pattern, and turret config.

    Trying urgently to find the video....

  14. #2014
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    Syria'n regime forces try to encircle now #Aleppo also from west under cover of #Russia'n airstrikes b4 cease fire

    Syria #IS retook Al-Hammam & restore siege of #Khanasser
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...09034&z=14&m=b
    Regime supply route #Hama->#Aleppo still cut

  15. #2015
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat.....that long awaited TOW hit on a T90 video might just be there....there is a report of a 800m TOW hit on a T72 which basically split it in two parts...I have seen the image and the T72 might have been wrongly ID'd and it might in fact be a T90 based on camo pattern, and turret config.

    Trying urgently to find the video....
    Confirmed as a T90...clean hit and clean kill virtually destroyed the T90....appears to have the standard aiming kill point between the base of the turret and main body..one crew member got out before it totally exploded. Had been firing it's turret HMG and evidently did not detect the TOW tm.

    Actually on a second and third review it seems to indicate the TOW round hit the main turret full on and evidently penetrated..so in effect the turret armor amounts to nothing.

    BREAKING
    First ever TOW hit of T-90A west of #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOJSz1WOEg

    This will set back the Russian designers of their famous or in this case not so famous T90 that the Iranians want to produce under general license.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 09:22 AM.

  16. #2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Confirmed as a T90...clean hit and clean kill virtually destroyed the T90....appears to have the standard aiming kill point between the base of the turret and main body..one crew member got out before it totally exploded. Had been firing it's turret HMG and evidently did not detect the TOW tm.

    Actually on a second and third review it seems to indicate the TOW round hit the main turret full on and evidently penetrated..so in effect the turret armor amounts to nothing.

    BREAKING
    First ever TOW hit of T-90A west of #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOJSz1WOEg

    This will set back the Russian designers of their famous or in this case not so famous T90 that the Iranians want to produce under general license.
    CrowBat....watch the video closely....normally one has to visually guide the round to the end hit but a few milliseconds before impact he turned down the targeting eyepiece as if it is homing in on the final short leg without guidance?????

    CONFIRMED: first #T90 in #Syria hit by #TOW. Shtora (ATGM protection) active but didn't work. Sheikh Aqil, W.#Aleppo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOJSz1WOEg

    Evidently that famous Russian designed Shtora system does not work......confirms your previous comments on it.

    One commenter stated.....shtora didn't look active. No red eyes. Also tank was hit but looked mobile...

    ...a somewhat longer video version is out there somewhere which shows the tank then exploding..an it appears that only one crew member was able to get out......maybe the TOW tm wanted to say it was on but I have seen this TOW gunner in action over the last three months and he has no reason to "fudge the info"......
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 09:33 AM.

  17. #2017
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    It was largely anticipated #Shtora system wouldn't work vs #TOW because TOW is wire-guided & don't rely on laser.

    This #TOW strike buries myth #Shtora system would have protected #T90 vs #TOW as claimed since October 2015.

    TOW vs #YPG still going on: 5th target (pos. & 14.5 mm) taken out (Tell Rifaat, N. #Aleppo)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIceAD8ZIW4

    Night vision of clashes on the #Tannurah front btw Jaish Al-Izza & Shia militias, N. #Aleppo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhPs8mfAxCs

    Newly formed Jaish Al-Tahrir pounds with grads Regime stronghold #Joureen in #Ghab (W.#Hama)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoXGt9NFxlQ

  18. #2018
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    Hope Obama and Kerry fully understand what the Russian MoD released air strike map means for the so called CoH......

    First comment in from the FSA/HNC........

    If #Russia is serious with this map all hope for the ceasefire should be buried immediately. It's total war.

    Strong signal that Russia has sent to Turkey and the Saudi's...so it might be a war after all.

    Nothing yet out of Obama WH and Kerry...silence...total silence....

    Since Russian MoD has declared 90% of the FSA areas can in fact be bombed which actually contradicts the Russian/US CoH....this is not surprising....and Kerry's response...absolutely nothing....

    Kremlin: "#Russia operations against the "terrorist organizations" in #Syria will not stop after the start of the ceasefire"
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-26-2016 at 09:54 AM.

  19. #2019
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    Video from NW- Anadan #Aleppo suburb- nearly wipped out by #Russia'n airstrikes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONHNYwk0bHc

    Reports in from today......
    RuAF in full force, Bombers, helicopters in addition to russian artillery.

  20. #2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Hope Obama and Kerry fully understand what the Russian MoD released air strike map means for the so called CoH......

    First comment in from the FSA/HNC........

    If #Russia is serious with this map all hope for the ceasefire should be buried immediately. It's total war.

    Strong signal that Russia has sent to Turkey and the Saudi's...so it might be a war after all.

    Nothing yet out of Obama WH and Kerry...silence...total silence....


    Can Kerry and Obama actually explain this.....they cannot???

    There's no Daesh or JAN in besieged Daraya but it's not included in the ceasefire deal
    http://www.buzzfeed.com/borzoudaraga...Jb#.boAMMeoNl1

    BUT it is just 6kms from Assad's palace and has resisted him for five years....

    6600 #Barrel_bombs have hit #Daraya in the last 3 months, the most shelled place in #Syria.

    At least 8200 civilians are living in harsh conditions after a 4-year siege by #Assad forces.

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