Tunisia: catch all

[davidbfpo]

An update via The Soufan Group's e-briefing and this attack's importance:

Armed militants are suspected to have crossed into Tunisia from Libya on March 7, carrying out a series of coordinated attacks against Tunisian security forces in the eastern border town of Ben Gardane. The attacks targeted an army base, a national guard post, and a police station, leaving 53 dead—including 35 militants, 11 members of the security forces, and seven civilians.... the Tunisian government to construct a 125-mile wall along the border with Libya. However, based on the scale and coordination of the assault on security forces, the wall is hardly serving as a deterrent.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...isia-strategy/

Checking a map I now know where the IS "hot spot" town of Ben Gardane is, near the Libyan border:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gardane

[CrowBat]

A short (really 'compressed') 'summary' on Tunisian Air Force's ops vs local (and Algerian) extremists is meanwhile available as Tunisia Waged a Successful Air War Against Militants — And No One Noticed

A very interesting 'reaction' by one of readers of this article appeared shortly later (apparently by what might be a 'disgusted Algerian', or at least sounds that way):

This article describes a tension between Algeria and Tunisia that DOES NOT exist.

Wondering what your sources may be. The Minister of Defense of Tunisia himself acknowledged publicly the shortcomings of Tunisia in the intelligence field, and as he put it “ without the help of Algeria with regards to Intelligence we would have been overwhelmed by the jihadi rebels”.

Furthermore, the successes that this article describes are in part Algerian, or rather joint Tunisian/Algerian wins.

Algeria and Tunisia have signed a joint agreement whereby Algeria agreed to assist Tunisia with its COIN campaign in the common border area.

Algerian Helicopters have actively participated in COIN operations on Tunisian soil at the request of Tunisian authorities.

Tunisia has a very courageous and tenacious military, but they are under-equipped whilst Algeria has one of the largest military in the Mediterranean, and was ranked #1 in Africa prior to Egypt’s recent acquisitions.

Algeria is helping Tunisia in its COIN campaign, first out of solidarity as the two countries are very close allies, and second out of common interest.

Algeria cannot afford, and will not allow terrorism to take hold in Tunisia.

The security and stability of the two countries is intertwined, Algeria wants Tunisia to succeed in its COIN campaign and provides financial, military and intelligence support to the Tunisian authorities to that effect.

Sorry, but the story involving the scrambling of an Algerian Su30MKA in response to Tunisian air raids in the Kasserine region is pure fantasy.

Anyone with basic knowledge of these two countries and their security / defense apparatus would dismiss it as complete nonsense.

This reader is partially right: I should have better emphasised the levels of military and security cooperation between the two countries - at least the levels that are meanwhile 'in powers'.

That said, it is so that there were two periods of 'cooperation' between Algeria and Tunisia in regards of security situation in the latter country:

1.) immediately following the revolution of 2011, when there was plenty of mutual suspicion (especially Algerians suspected that Tunisians would be supervised by specific Western powers), and

2.) another, running ever since negotiations between two governments and establishment of direct links between two military commands, in March 2013.

While there is little doubt that this cooperation directly contributed to the Tunisian success of 2013 (which is little surprise considering the wealth of intelligence and experience on Algerian side), it cannot be denied that it was a very unpleasant period - for both sides - and that there were tensions ‘well beyond’ the ‘usual suspicion’ at that time. What I mean with this is that some of my sources clearly say, Algerians were de-facto threatening to open fire.

Good thing is: nothing of this kind happened, things were sorted out, and the cooperation is indeed, very good nowadays.

Finally, I should add that even though certainly supporting Tunisians, Algerian authorities are kind of unable to confirm this officially. Reason is that they repeatedly criticised various of local media's 'exaggerations' about operations in question, and declared these for 'anti-drug-smuggler' operations.

Now Algiers just can't correct itself...

[davidbfpo]

The linked article's full title is 'The Berlin attack proves Tunisia, the single success of the Arab Spring, is yet to overcome its past' and is a commentary prompted alas by the attack in Berlin:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...ab-spring-yet/

[davidbfpo]

Tunisia "bubbles along" and occasionally violence is reported - which means few recall it is has a democratically elected government, in the coalition is
main Islamist movement, Ennahda.

There is a new book, from Hurst & Co (London), Political Islam in Tunisia by Anne Wolf

The Abstract says (in part):

Political Islam in Tunisia uncovers the secret history of Tunisia’s main Islamist movement, Ennahda, from its origins in the 1960s to the present. Banned until the popular uprisings of 2010-11 and the overthrow of Ben Ali’s dictatorship, Ennahda has until now been impossible to investigate. This is the first in-depth account of the movement, one of Tunisia’s most influential political actors. Based on more than four years of field research, over 400 interviews, and access to private archives, Anne Wolf masterfully unveils the evolution of Ennahda’s ideological and strategic orientations within changing political contexts and, at times, conflicting ambitions amongst its leading cadres. She also explores the challenges to Ennahda’s quest for power from both secularists and Salafis.

Link:http://mailchi.mp/hurstpub/an-amazin...9?e=80d42c7c0a

[davidbfpo]

An IISS blog item, the full title and sub-title being:

Tunisia’s reluctant partnership with NATO; Tunisia's mixed signals over NATO cooperation reflect domestic pressures and regional tensions. France may see an opportunity to build influence in its former colony.

The choices? NATO, France - note separately and Algeria. The later of course has a different CT approach:

Tunis is increasingly reliant on Algeria’s counter-terrorism expertise, gained during the ‘black decade’ of the 1990s.

Link:https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voice...be3f90&urlid=4

[davidbfpo]

A detailed account of this little known insurgency, with Jihadist and ISIS elements involved.
Link:https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/0...ands-pub-76712

[davidbfpo]

An overview of the situation, which is rather pessimistic as this passage shows:

A rare acknowledgement of the dire situation came recently from the minister of defence, Abdelkrim Zbidi. He affirmed that current political conflicts are responsible for 90% of Tunisia’s problems, including its failing security. It is a widely held view, which sounds rather like an ultimatum against the ruling class. The risk that the military might now intervene in some way has never been so real in Tunisia.

Link:https://theconversation.com/terroris...africa-106087?

[davidbfpo]

A NYT article, following on a FOI by 'Task & Purpose' following medals being awarded to US Marines after a 2017 border clash:

The 2017 clash involving the Marines was a reminder of the resilience of the jihadists, even amid the combined American-Tunisian efforts. In the Kasserine mountain area, only a few dozen guerrillas are active at any given time. Yet because of its proximity to the Algerian border, the Tunisian army has struggled to secure it.The team of Marines was on a three-day mission with Tunisian forces when it got into a “fierce fight against members of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,” according to one of the award citations for the Marines, who were not identified. Although the Marines were said to be on a “train, advise and assist” mission, the citations made clear that they were fighting and, at times, directing events.

Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/02/w...terrorism.html

[davidbfpo]

From an Israeli think tank, something I might have missed: https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en...vince-country/

[davidbfpo]

Aaron Zelin is a known SME, who I think I have heard talk once in London and thanks to Twitter found he has a website dedicated to Tunisia, part of the promotion for a forthcoming book due out in January 2020.

His latest article is a very brief account / comment on Tunisia action against IS in the mountains. The website has many more articles.
Link:https://tunisianjihadism.com/2019/08...as-an-is-base/