Syria in 2016 (January-March)

[OUTLAW 09]

SOHR Leader in Shuhada’a al-Yarmouk Brigade killed, 10s of vehicles 4 #Nusra &factions’…
http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=45366

AhrarAlSham leading figure on the group's relations to Jabhat al-#Nusra:
http://en.eldorar.com/node/1835

Activists in #Palmyra, says the footage #SAA claims from inside is fake, they still 6 km away from the heart of the town
#Homs #Syria MAR 24

Still no humanitarian aid from ether Russia or the UN.....
Moadamiyah_alSham..
The forgotten besieged town..
#DAmascus #Syria MAR 24

SAA terrorists airstrikes o n #Marj area
#Damascus cs #Syria MAR 24

SAA terrorists airstrikes on #Zabdin and #Bala towns
#Damascus cs #Syria MAR 24

Russia will call out the shelling of the Assad area as a CoH violation BUT conveniently forget SAA shelled first....
Aleppo| #Ahrar_alSham respond to regime bombardment in Bustan al-Qasr neighborhood by targeting regime locations in Ramusa front

200 000 buildings were completely or partially destroyed since the beginning of Assad´s genocide
#AssadWarCrimes

[OUTLAW 09]

A long convoy of the militant group 'Jabhat Ansar al-Din' enters #Aleppo, #Syria.

SAA helicopters dropping pamphlets over #anadan
#Aleppo cs #Syria MAR 24

Daraa, #FSA kill Harakat Al Muthanna (pro Daesh) military emir
https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2...-military-emir …

SAA terrorists airstrikes on #Eastern_Ghouta
#Damascus cs #Syria MAR 24

So called "SDF" launched arrest campaigns all over Hasakeh
http://en.eldorar.com/node/1832

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference a SAA video from yesterday depicting FSA POWs being tortured and their hangings...

By the way, captured FSA rebel "TOW group" did not down any helicopter. That accusation was dreamt up by Assad supporters to increase morale.

Reality is those young fighters driving a pickup took wrong turn & intercepted by pro Assad foreign fighters & handed to Assad regime.

Assad regime used them as a scapegoat for everything possible for their own satisfaction & after beating them coerced them to "confess.

I know Assadists are justifying & celebrating torture of these fighters. Rebels should remember that 4 next time they capture Assadists

[OUTLAW 09]

Victim of #SAA terrorists snipers, targeting civilians in #Tel_Dahab from their checkpoints
#Homs #Syria MAR 24

SAA terrorists shelling with heavy artillery targeting #Sukayk & #alTamanah villages
#Idlib cs #Syria MAR 24

9 days of #Assad #SAA terrorists siege on #Barzeh
#Damascus #Syria MAR 24

39 Martyrs
[15 Fighters 8Children 3Women 3Tortured]
16 Daraa
6 Damascus
5Aleppo
3Hama
3DeirEzzor
2Hama
2Latakia
1Hasakah
1Homs
#Syria MAR 23

More than 10 #RUSSIA airstrikes since early this morning so far on #Palmyra
#Homs cs #Syria MAR 24

Is Russia in fact using starvation and the promise of some Russian aid to force Syrians to capitulate to Assad???? WHEN in fact the CoH and the UN foresees massive aid deliveries independent of Assad's approval?????

Putin now leads #Assad's siege implementation, surrounding gathered locals with gunman to exchange fealty for food.

[OUTLAW 09]

SAA terrorists shelling with heavy artilery on #Teir_MAela now
#Homs cs #Syria MAR 24

One of the Assad airstrikes on Bala in eastern Ghouta, #Damascus today
http://youtu.be/o9YF4Es-_js

Fun fact: Neither Jordan, nor USA, nor Russia ever bombed Shuhada Yarmouk, an IS proxy operating vs. rebels right on Jordan's border.

FSA SF calls on civilians in remaining towns to steer clear from #ISIS fighters or temporarily leave to safe zones until towns are cleared

Kharab al-Shahm, Tal Shihab, Muzayrib, Tafas & Zayzoun now cleared. Jillen, Sheikh Sa’ad, al-Tira & Sahm al-Golan declared military areas

18 rebel groups create a unified ops room in Horan to clear southern #Syria from #ISIS affiliated fighters

According to JaI, Assad militias trying to advance in Marj area suffered big losses yesterday with over 30 killed

Assad continues targeting Zibdin, Bala, Harasta, Jisrin, etc, w/ airstrikes/mortars/rockets, scorched earth policy to split eastern Ghouta

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat......more from Palmyra.....

PalmyraRev1
The regime is out #Palmyra up to now
3 km far from the west
5 km far from the south western
Bombardment and clashes continue

Syira Huge battle in #Palmyra- but stil at W & SW outskirts
Several thousand fighters from #Assad-forces & #IS involved
#Russian airstrikes

NOW English ‏@NOW_eng
#ISIS calls on #Palmyra residents to flee town
http://mme.cm/L3AW00

Syria-n army #hezballah fighters already inside palmyra And fighting with #ISIS close to the castle according to hezballah TV

Syrian regime media enter the palace built by the Qatari royal family at the outskirts of Palmyra
https://youtu.be/R5wZGuL1dJo

[OUTLAW 09]

So now has Russia being actually training the US so called Kurdish proxy group YPG?????

Russia'n General Alexander Dwornikow claim to train Kurdish #YPG & other patriotic units

NOW English ‏@NOW_eng
#Russia admits to training #Syria Kurdish forces
http://mme.cm/N3AW00

BEIRUT – The commander of Russia’s ground forces in Syria revealed that his country’s military advisors have trained Kurdish fighters in the north of the war-torn country.

“In the shortest possible time [after our intervention] Russia’s armed forces established a system of military advisors… who successfully solves the tasks of training government, Kurdish and other patriotic troops,” Colonel-General Alexander Dvornikov said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta published Wednesday.

The top Russian official praised the People’s Protection Units (YPG), saying that “despite their differences with authorities in Damascus, the Syrian Kurds took an active part in the fight against terrorists in the north of the country.”

“They continue to fight against ISIS and Al-Nusra Front,” he added.

Dvornikov’s comments were the first public admission that Moscow has taken an active military role supporting the YPG, which is also backed by the US in its fight against ISIS.

Top Kurdish officials have in past months stated they welcome coordination and assistance with Russia or any other power fighting the jihadist organization.

Shortly after the start of Russia’s military intervention in Syria in late September 2015, the commander of the YPG, Sipan Hemo, told Sputnik Türkiye—which is owned by Moscow—that his fighting force requested arms from Russia as well as general military coordination.

The YPG chief’s comments come after Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar—which has an editorial line supportive of the Syrian regime—reported that Russia had set up a coordination process with Kurdish forces and parties in northern Syria.

On February 10, Syrian Kurds opened a representative office in Moscow in the latest sign of their warming ties with Russia.

Syrian rebel groups in northern Aleppo have alleged that the YPG and their allies Jaysh al-Thuwar—an ethnic Arab fighting force—has coordinated with the Syrian regime and benefitted from Russian airstrikes.

After a regime offensive on February 3 cut off rebel groups north of Aleppo from their cohorts in Syria’s second city, Kurdish-led forces took advantage of heavy Russian bombardment to seize a number of rebel-held positions.

The mid-February Kurdish advances pushed opposition forces back to a small stretch of territory near the Turkish border, including the strategic town of Aazaz that serves as a logistical hub for the opposition in the region.

BUT WAIT...I had thought that YPG was a CIA/CENTCOM funded, trained and equipped anti IS fighting proxy...not a Russian mercenary unit????

[OUTLAW 09]

Hopefully this is consistent -- Syrian rebel groups in Aleppo, moderates & others, go after ISIS sleeper cells

Despite what Kremlin says about Turkey, #Russia is the key facilitator of Assad's energy trade with IS.
http://bit.ly/1SNsI4G

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is the philosophical justification to use Islam to fight the West by Alexander Dugin.
http://openrevolt.info/2011/11/15/al...ion-and-islam/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

1. The value of Islam. In today’s world, Islam is the world religion most actively resisting globalism’s force. It makes the Islamic factor extremely important for the front of traditionalism. In this war with Islam the United States and ideologue of the End of history Francis Fukuyama even tried to suggest the term “Islamofascism” to greater discredit the faith. United States as an empire tends to designate Islam the new enemy number one. This is a almost official U.S. position now while with Bush it was merely formal. And therefore Islam should be treated as a priority field of struggle against U.S. imperialism, the modern and post-modern world and globalization. This determines the value and importance of Islam.

2. Islam is diverse. Attitude toward Islam as something unified and coherent, as something homogeneous, is a delusion or an “empty concept”. This concept is found in three cases: in ignorant masses (which are generally always wrong, as the platitude is incompatible with the truth), in propaganda of the world’s centers of power (using it for specific political purposes); from the of mouth so-called theorists of “Pure Islam” (Salafi, Wahhabi, etc.) sometimes called conventional “Islamic fundamentalism”, “integrism.” The first two cases are clear. The third case is a perfected innovation trying to take the place of existing Islam (traditional Islam)as a confession of faith in the guise of a “return to roots.” Something similar is done by the Protestants, proposing to return to the “true”, early Christianity, but creating something entirely new which hardly has any relation to Christianity. “Pure Islam” – is close to that.

3. We must analyze Islam out of the “myths”, as it is, in its diversity. This should highlight the theological, historical, geopolitical, ethnic aspects in each of its schools. This is a gigantic task, without which we can not seriously talk about Islam. The division must go through its main lines: Sunni – Shia.

4. Shiites. It is clear that the Shiite minority is a completely separate issue – metaphysically, and geo-politically and ethnically. In general, Shiites (and any trunk duodenary and heterodox septenary, and especially rare Ishraq and Iranian Sufism) is very similar to traditionalism. It has no universalist dimension and allows for wide differences. Especially important is its messianic (Mahdi) direction, because in this way it is easier to find common ground with the traditionalist understanding of the nature of the modern and postmodern world as the “discovery of the Cosmic Egg” from the bottom and a “great parody.”

5. Sunni: Traditional Islam and Salafism. The Sunni majority to be divided by several factors: allowing Sufism and not allowing Wahhabism (in the style of the Hanbalite and proper Wahhabism).

6. At-tassavuf. Those Sunni schools that are tolerant to esoterism and thus have a dimension in which to build a rapport with the traditionalist approach. The world of sufism itself is very wide. Many Tariqa are feuding with each other. Some are going to end up proselytizing and the New Age. Others are closed and become almost folkloric ethno-sectarian. The most interesting are followers of at-tassavuf, which are rooted in its traditions, orthodox, but have a broad outlook on the reality of the modern world, in its sociological, geopolitical, axiological and economic aspects. These are few, but they are extremely important. The environment of at-tassavufa is great in whole. Obviously needed is a policy text, emphasizing the radical values and the incompatibility of “Tariqa” with modern and post-modernity also describing the general (without detail) behavioral strategy of a Sufi in the “end of the world.” Preconditions for that are numerous. But the summation work or it’s author are absent. But they should come to be.

7. Traditional Islam as a whole. There is no intellectual guide for the “last days” in the context of the usual traditional Islam. This is understandable, since it does not present any conceptual unity. Traditional Islam is present, it represents the vast majority of modern Muslims, but there is no generalizing eschatological guidance for the global ummah. All that’s found after the initial test is a sect or Salafism. This is not surprising: eschatology is concentrated in the sects, and the Salafis, in general, try to be the Ummah. And yet eschatological, anti-globalist, anti-American, anti-modern and anti-postmodern sentiment among Muslims is extremely developed. It would be desirable to have the appearance of a serial publication such as “Traditional Islam” which would serve as a platform to present the positions of particular varieties of Islamic communities.

8. Salafism and the global Salafi project. Salafism, pure Islam are on the front wing of the political struggle in the Muslim sector of the modern world. It is a fact and that can not be denied. It is here that we meet the most clear and simple strategy, global thinking, well-defined goals: the establishment of the global Islamic State, the imposition of Sharia law, the organization of society on Islamic principles on a global scale, the doctrine of the “house of war” (dar al-harb) wherever there is no “house of Islam (” Dar ul-Islam “), etc. Obviously, in this program there is acceptable and unacceptable for parts for Traditionalism. Acceptable is the struggle against the common enemy; unacceptable in regard to the proposed alternative, in fact, this “Islamic Project”, is more accurately called the “Salafi project.” It is important to understand the metaphysics of the “Salafi project.” Their metaphysics are not neutral, they are built on denial of esotericism and traditionalism, which are defined here as “shirk”, a deviation from “pure Islam”. The roots of the dispute go back to the Mu’tazilites and opponents of the philosophers and Sufis. The “Salafi project,” radical anti-shia,anti-sufi, and anti-traditional. And this is not a distinctive feature of individual Salafis, but the obligatory metaphysics of all this movement. This ambiguity is reflected geopolitically in the close relations of Salafism (in particular, bin Laden and Al Qaeda), Brzezinski and the CIA during the Afghan war, that Americans have always Salafis services, giving rise to interfere in the sovereign affairs of those countries which try to resist the United States (Iraq, Libya, Syria, anti-Russian Salafism in the North Caucasus), but on the other hand it’s Salafis we also see active in anti-globalization attacking U.S. forces. This ambiguity should conceptualize time and time again to bring round this dialogue, to explain all sides in the conflict. In the global battle against the Dajjal – the role played by Salafism? We have left this question open.

9. Islam in Russia. Position, role and place of Islam in Russia, we must consider with the eschatological and traditionalist positions. For this we must seriously apply all of the previous theses to the Russian situation. Islam is a part of Russia’s space and it has developed over the centuries. But Russia has not become entrenched in their positions in the West, globalization, the U.S., liberalism, post-modernism. The position of authorities is evasive and can be interpreted in different ways. Forces of “Dajjal” are easy to speculate here. Pointing to the globalist and liberal Russian side they play against the Muslims on it, but at the same time, Russian Muslims – as “migrants”, “immigrants”, etc. This is a strategy to reduce the potential enemy of the West. We must work hard to oppose to it an eschatological alliance of Muslims and Orthodox Christians ( all Russia wide) against the U.S., Western liberalism and modernization. The closest point of contact with a Russian traditional Islam, this is not always fact, but theoretically there is clear direction for this dialogue. In the intellectual sphere, and especially even more in the Neoplatonic similarities. And at the outer level brings us together opposition to the West, liberalism and post-modernity. But here traditional Islam is often passive and limited with diplomatic formulas, rather than proposing a common strategy. The liberal pro-Western “modernization” aspects of Russian power, corruption and decay of society, traditions, manners are abhorrent to us and Muslims, we must fight it with them, fight together and not against each other. The main problems arise with Salafism. It plays the role of “scarecrow” to discredit the whole of Islam and its radical projects exacerbate the conflict between Muslims and oriented eschatology and similar orientated forces of other faiths, or merely instinctive opponents of globalization. Here, room for significant and challenging dialogue.

10. Summary: Islam and tradition. Islam is directly related to the Tradition. It is an indisputable fact. And as such it should be recognized by traditionalists. Islam is active and in favor of a traditional society. This should be supported. But Islam is not identical with the Tradition. Tradition can be un-Islamic. If Muslims accept it, agree to the terms of multipolarity, an active dialogue and close cooperation, including military, against post-modern world and the Antichrist / Dajall, should be encouraged.

Continued.......

It is really important to understand what this Russian right wing ideologue says and writes....while many in the West believe he is a tad crazy..he carries a lot of weight inside the Putin inner circle with his thinking.

But in certain phases of Putin's foreign policy he comes out of his shell makes key statements or comments that need to be understood as it points to the thinking around Putin...Putin has been quoted as placing a lot of value in Dugin's writings...

The last sentence of the point one sums up the entire article......and it is the cornerstone to the Russian political warfare fully directed at the US right now by Putin.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express definitely not in withdrawal mode these days...

ВМФ BSF #ЧФ Tapir/Alligator class LST Saratov 150 transits southbound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria

Turkish Coast Guard TCSG88 & TCSG19 and Istanbul Maritime Police boat & helicopter box-escorted #ВМФ #ЧФ LST Saratov

This is the 2nd #Syria deployment in 2016 for #ВМФ Tapir class LSTM Saratov 150 (x-Voronezhsky Konsomolet, x-БДК 65)

[OUTLAW 09]

IS attack Thayyem - Central Processing Facility /oil field in #DeirEzzor
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...83961&z=13&m=b …

IS detonate several vehicle bombs at Jabal al-Tar- #Palmyra outskirts

Tiger Forces soldiers with a Russian officer near Palmyra

Picture of Russian soldier and SyAA soldiers near Palmyra, a few days ago

Syrian Air Il-76 that flew Damascus-Qamilishi last week carrying Russian reporters and supplies

Syrian soldier (presumably) in Russia, October 2015. Training?

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat........sorry in Russian.....

Russian soldiers and PMCs in 'Ain el Bet', Hama. Facilitating reconciliation.
https://defendingrussia.ru/a/lica_by...ppozicii-5442/ …

[CrowBat]

CrowBat........sorry in Russian.....

Russian soldiers and PMCs in 'Ain el Bet', Hama. Facilitating reconciliation.
https://defendingrussia.ru/a/lica_by...ppozicii-5442/ …

'Sure'. And: where's the flag of the group with which they supposedly made peace...?

[CrowBat]

CrowBat......more from Palmyra.....

PalmyraRev1
The regime is out #Palmyra up to now
3 km far from the west
5 km far from the south western
Bombardment and clashes continue

Syira Huge battle in #Palmyra- but stil at W & SW outskirts
Several thousand fighters from #Assad-forces & #IS involved
#Russian airstrikes

NOW English ‏@NOW_eng
#ISIS calls on #Palmyra residents to flee town
http://mme.cm/L3AW00

Syria-n army #hezballah fighters already inside palmyra And fighting with #ISIS close to the castle according to hezballah TV

Syrian regime media enter the palace built by the Qatari royal family at the outskirts of Palmyra
https://youtu.be/R5wZGuL1dJo

It seems somebody there finally switched on more than 2 of his brain cells, then today they are advancing after all. They took a sort of turn around the southern flank and then, skirting the western side of Oasis (or 'orchards' as everybody is calling the area, no clue why) turned north.

That way they seem to have reach the ruins of the Bell Temple (well, the former ruins of the Bell Temple: the place was blown to smitherness by the Daesh, in September last year).

That's placing them about 2km from the 'main (western) entry' to Tadmor.

Through all this manoeuvring, they have kind of found a way to approach the city without exposing themselves to the fire of the Daesh entrenched at Mt Qasiyoun, which is the dominating feature for about 30km in that part of Syria. In essence, one can see all around Palmyra/Tadmor from there. That hill is surrounded by something like 2km of open space on all sides, and actually a perfect defensive position.

Guess, with plenty of de-mining, they might be able to reach the western side of Tadmor this evening - but that's only going to be the start of the actual battle for Palmyra.

[OUTLAW 09]

It begins >> Assad and rebels should join forces against IS: UK parliamentary committee
https://shar.es/1YvUtY

Russian Defence Ministry says planes hit 146 'military targets of terrorists' nr #Palmyra, so confirming it's backing Syrian govt offensive

How #Russia Is 'Weaponizing' Migration to Destabilize Europe
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...abilize-europe …

Heavy Clashes in #DeirEzzor's Military Airbase between IS and #Syrian Soldiers...

Syria Huge explosion inside the #SAA divison 26 base near the village of Teir Maalah in #Homs
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34...13498&z=16&m=b …

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems somebody there finally switched on more than 2 of his brain cells, then today they are advancing after all. They took a sort of turn around the southern flank and then, skirting the western side of Oasis (or 'orchards' as everybody is calling the area, no clue why) turned north.

That way they seem to have reach the ruins of the Bell Temple (well, the former ruins of the Bell Temple: the place was blown to smitherness by the Daesh, in September last year).

That's placing them about 2km from the 'main (western) entry' to Tadmor.

Through all this manoeuvring, they have kind of found a way to approach the city without exposing themselves to the fire of the Daesh entrenched at Mt Qasiyoun, which is the dominating feature for about 30km in that part of Syria. In essence, one can see all around Palmyra/Tadmor from there. That hill is surrounded by something like 2km of open space on all sides, and actually a perfect defensive position.

Guess, with plenty of de-mining, they might be able to reach the western side of Tadmor this evening - but that's only going to be the start of the actual battle for Palmyra.

CrowBat...so the Russian GRU Spetsnaz is being used to recon...the one Russian SOF IS indicated they had killed was a de-mining specialist based on his equipment he was carrying .. which has been seen before in eastern Ukraine. The Russian SF types though in the Ukraine are more into actual mining/IED ops.....using there a smart phone app for recording their emplaced mines that takes a photo and geo tags the exact mine location.

Palmyra battle map: #ISIS is still in control of the City, the Castle, the Orchards and the Semiramis Hotel.

Reports of Dozens #SAA soldiers Bodies lay on the field when they tried to Strom #IS Positions near the hotel.

Heavy Clashes between #IS and #SAA SW of #Palmyra near Semiramis Hotel and 550 Brigade. Heavy Causalities on both sides Reported.

This video also, in Qatar's Palace, and there was no new progress of the regime in #Palmyra .
https://youtu.be/XsfljaRkiqM

[OUTLAW 09]

'Sure'. And: where's the flag of the group with which they supposedly made peace...?

CrowBat...just how strange is this charade they are playing??...somehow I think it is mainly for the home consumption because no one in the ME/Europe believes a word they are saying.

But in some aspects I think they are actually attempting to go through the motions...why is the question....we had trained their 15th Peacekeeping Bde concerning peacekeeping operations which they felt we were good at and one of the aspects of peacekeeping is getting both sides to sit down...this I think is what they are attempting to practice.....I am betting that officers of the 15hr Staff are conducting these types of meetings.....and manning the Reconciliation Center as well as this is the main function of the 15th Peacekeeping Bde........

Just my thoughts....

But you make an interesting point...the Russian MoD appears to not fully understand the value and or the meaning of the various group flags....

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-Regime forces backed by intense #RuAF aircover reached last IS defenses W. of #Palmyra. Each side bringing huge reinforcements 4 battle

Pro-Regime forces are exactly 2.9 km NW from Medieval Castel overlooking main road leading to #Palmyra.

Assad airstrikes in Kafrnaboudeh, rural #Hama, #Syria today
http://youtu.be/HFSPyYSsgTg

As the Syrian Pound turns into expensive toilet paper, #ISIS in #Raqqa now collects taxes & fines in US dollars

Breaking
#FSA #Southern_Front killed 2 leaders of Shuhada alYarmouk (#Daesh) & one of Harakat Mothana in #Daraa. Operation continuing well

Unconfirmed: 2 Jabhat al-Nusra militants detonated personal explosive belts to avoid arrest by Faylaq al-Rahman in E. #Ghouta earlier today.

Confirmed. Faylaq al-Rahman believed they were ISIS initially only to find out they were Nusra after the incident

Harakat al-Muthanna's military commander also killed in battle with FSA in western #Daraa prov.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=60312

After Palmyra: Military and Economic Targets of the Islamic State


Posted by: Yezid Sayigh, Aron Lund

Thursday, June 4, 2015

When the extremist group known as the Islamic State took control over Palmyra, an ancient city nestled deep in the Syrian desert, in late May, it was a clear strategic defeat for the government of President Bashar al-Assad. As the battles neared the astounding historical ruins of Palmyra, the Islamic State got all the media attention it could hope for and Assad’s weakness was exposed to the world. By breaking open and destroying the infamous Palmyra Military Prison, which was for decades the dark heart of the Syrian regime’s system of coercion, the Islamic State has reasserted its anti-Assad credentials in the eyes of many Syrians.

This winter, the Islamic State suffered severe losses during the long battle for the Kurdish town of Kobane on the Syrian-Turkish border and it continues to lose territory to the Kurds in northern Syria. Even so, the jihadi group has been able to advance elsewhere in Syria. And despite structural obstacles to its expansion and a string of defeats in Iraq, it recently captured the provincial capital of Ramadi, while Islamic State forces retreating from the northern city of Tikrit have turned to wreak havoc on the Baiji oil refinery. However, it is Syria that presents the most promising arena for the Islamic State, which seems to be aiming for high-profile victories in the lead-up to the holy month of Ramadan and the one-year anniversary of its unilateral declaration of a “caliphate” in late June 2014.

Exploiting the recent weakening and territorial losses of the Syrian government, the Islamic State has begun to pressure Hasakah City, north of Deir Ezzor. In parallel it has launched a new offensive in Aleppo, striking government forces in the Sheikh Najjar industrial area and pushing toward the key Bab al-Salam crossing on the Syrian-Turkish border near Azaz, to cut rival Sunni insurgents off from foreign support. If this succeeds, it could be of immense significance for the future of the war. But the taking of Palmyra, the central hub of Syria’s desert road network connecting southwest to northeast, has also opened new possibilities

Deir Ezzor: Battle for the East

By taking Palmyra and the smaller town of Sokhna, further northeast, the Islamic State has secured its stranglehold on the city of Deir Ezzor, Assad’s last remaining stronghold in the eponymous province.

The government and the Islamic State have been wrestling for control over Deir Ezzor virtually nonstop since summer 2014, and, before that, Assad fought other rebel factions in the area. Rather than accept defeat after losing the entire Euphrates region, the Syrian regime has invested enormous resources in trying to maintain its foothold in Deir Ezzor, perhaps sensing that its loss would spell the symbolic end of Assad as a national actor with potential to reclaim all of Syria.

Deir Ezzor’s southern neighborhoods have been transformed into a heavily fortified garrison by a combined Syrian army, security, and tribal militia contingent ensconced in the Joura district, around the military airport, and in other key areas. The president has even dispatched two of his best-known commanders to the besieged city, Brigadier Generals Issam Zahreddine and Mohammed Khaddour, thereby raising the stakes to a point where its fall would mean a devastating loss of face.

For the Islamic State, exploiting its victory in Palmyra to tighten the seige on Deir Ezzor and ultimately capture it is likely to be a high-priority goal.The group recently pushed deeper into Deir Ezzor, seizing much of Sakr Island in the Euphrates. And a detailed opposition report published in mid-May 2015 on the Islamic State’s military organization in Wilayet al-Kheir—the group’s label for the Deir Ezzor Governorate—notes that it continues to train new recruits in the area.

Many Targets to the West and South

Other options are on the table, too. From Palmyra, the jihadis can threaten a range of important targets and keep regime forces under pressure along a broad front. To the northwest, Islamic State forces are already pressing into the Salamiya area, threatening the Ismaili community there, but also—and most crucially—adding pressure to Assad’s last remaining supply route to Aleppo.

Moving down the front, the Islamic State could try to connect with its fighters in the Homs region, which is under Assad’s control but where the remaining rebel enclaves seem susceptible to Islamic State infiltration and influence.

Southwest of Palmyra, the retreat of regime forces has pushed back their defense line and made it easier for the Islamic State to use the eastern Qalamoun region as a launch pad for raids on the Homs–Damascus highway. Defending it is now crucial for the regime’s ability to maintain movement between the capital and the coastal region. Further west, the western Qalamoun region allows for access to the Lebanese borderlands. Opposition media now claims that the Islamic State has brought in reinforcements from the north to fight against rebels in the eastern Qalamoun, south of the Palmyra-Homs line, where it has taken al-Mahsa village and is approaching the town of Ruheibeh.

Looking southward, the eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus are a hard target for the Islamic State, due both to the government siege and to the strong position of the militant Army of Islam, which is led by Zahran Alloush, a Sunni Islamist who is fiercely opposed to the Islamic State. But the Syrian capital is too big a prize for the Islamic State to ignore: even if it can’t take the city, its ability to pose a threat reinforces its credibility and enhances its political stature.

Lastly, south of Damascus, the Druze towns of the Sweida Governorate may also prove a hard nut to crack, but the prospect of battling “apostates” may still attract the Islamic State. More immediately, however, the Islamic State may bypass Damascus and Sweida in order to infiltrate forces into the contested Houran region. The Jordanian border and the Golan Heights close to Israeli-occupied territory are highly attractive for the Islamic State. Other rebel factions know this, and have been hunting and killing Islamic State supporters for fear of fifth-columnist action. Battles are currently ongoing in the southwestern corner of Syria, where the pro-Islamic State militants of the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade are under heavy pressure from other rebels.

Seizing or Destroying Energy Infrastructure

The Palmyra area is also important for its energy infrastructure. The Islamic State has reportedly captured the gas fields to the east of Palmyra, and pressures those to the west that remain in government hands. However, while the Islamic State has profited greatly from its oil fields in eastern Syria, gas production involves very different technical challenges and the Islamic State will not be able to exploit the fields economically without highly specialized equipment and suitable means of transportation. But capturing gas fields as well as related processing plants and stations is still an effective form of economic warfare: losing access to these facilities means a net loss for the regime, which relies heavily on gas for electricity generation.

Similarly, the Islamic State has reportedly seized two phosphate mines near Palmyra, but extraction and export may prove very difficult. As of early June, the main effect has been to deny the Syrian government any income from these facilities, in the same way the assault on Baiji in Iraq denied Baghdad the use of refining capacity that provides half of its national needs.

The governments in both Syria and Iraq are under tremendous economic strain, with oil prices slipping, electricity infrastructure failing, and Iran appearing to waver over how much support it can afford to extend to its allies. By systematically targeting or seizing control over the Syrian power infrastructure, the Islamic State aggravates the crisis in government-controlled areas and gains important leverage over electricity-dependent communities, thereby positioning itself to further exploit the weakening of Assad’s government.