The question -- and it's a timely one -- is whether Islamic states are conducive to democracy. Is it Arab tribalism that is the problem, or is something about Islam which is creating trouble? Is it a combination, or are the assumptions of the question wrong -- that the problem lies elsewhere, such as in oil-rich states creating dependency, the Israel problem (an old chestnut) etc. With all the problems "creating" democracies in the Arab world, is this a proper strategy for the US to take post 9/11?
What lessons, exactly, are we supposed to take away from France's battle with Royalists? Not sure how enlightening the comparison is. The comparison with Turkey is much more enlightening, although N=1 ,they seem to have had to enforce severe restrictions on Islam in order to democratize.
I think the following is quite sharp. Although I'd like to ask what the board thinks about use of proxy forces, such as Ethiopians in Somalia, and perhaps the Kurds in the ME. This seems like a grand way of fighting Jihadists without bringing political or media pressure to bear on the States.And one could also argue that France's "democtratization" came with a ruthless "de-Royalist" campaign headed by a number of people. I believe the roots of Britain's democracy is also littered with a fair number of corpses. Our own beginnings also involved a certain amount of activity against Loyalist elements within the colonies.
I don't think the United States can be very good at either approach. The first takes a bloodlust we simply don't have (and which would destroy our leadership among the rest of the world as other nations increasingly loath and fear us). The second takes a degree of cultural acuity and patience that we do not posses. Thus I favor a strategy which says we will do FID/hearts and minds in those very rare cases where it is likely to work with a reasonable degree of effort and within our short attention span (e.g. El Salvador). Otherwise, we should either participate in a multinational trusteeship if the world has the stomach for it; otherwise, simply contain and cauterize insurgencies.
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