South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Azor]

From the Asia Times:

Another troubling sign appeared in an official Chinese publication last month. A military researcher, Wang Hongliang, identified as an official at the National Strategic Research Center in Shanghai, published an article outlining how the United States would respond to the shootdown of a US aircraft over the South China Sea.

Wang stated Washington would respond in one of three ways: rapid military retaliation followed with diplomatic and military deterrence; an increase in diplomatic pressure through military deterrence without the use of armed force; and the launching of lighting attacks against Chinese military and strategic targets in the South China Sea and then quickly deescalating to prevent a full-blown war.

The Chinese researcher concluded that since China has not imposed an ADIZ, “the PLA lacks any safe flight regulations in so-called “contested airspace which it can declare to foreign parties.”

“If US planes enter this airspace, Beijing will naturally have the right to shoot them down, according to its own understanding of the ownership of the islands,” he wrote. “This does not violate international law, though the United States and some [South China Sea] countries will not see things this way. This is actually the greatest risk of an accident happening in the airspace of the SCS.

Harris, the PACOM commander, has made clear that militarily the disputed Chinese military facilities in the South China Sea, currently airfields, HQ-9 air defense missiles and YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missiles, could be easily destroyed by superior US military forces with precision strike capabilities in a conflict. But he said the problem is the incremental way China is moving to take control.

Thus China is seeking to avoid an head-on military confrontation with the United States and instead is using legal, psychological and media warfare to achieve its objective of turning the sea into a Chinese lake.

The provocative article discussing the shoot down of a US military aircraft is clearly is part of China’s war of nerves with the United States and its efforts to solidify control over the South China Sea.

Things could come to a head soon. “The Chinese could declare an ADIZ at any time,” said one Pentagon official in the know."