Next Small War

[M. J. Dougherty]

ALCON,

It is my believe that the growing trend in insurgent campaign (shor/mid-term objectives) strategies is to generate as much chaos and anarchy as possible. By creating an environment of "intractable conflict" insurgents are capable of strategically deterring intervention into "lawless areas." While the long-term objective remain control or dominant influence over people, territory & resources, the near term imperative requires insurgents to pre-empt foreign intervention by more powerful states.

In regards to ensuring friendly power acends to control of a new and emerging state, it is risky option. However, the one lesson that insurgent groups have learned is that they cannot compete with powerful organized states with overwhelming strategic (economic & military resource with superior information dissemination /control) capabilities.

If one looks at the various conflicts in South & SE Asia, they do not seem to make too much sense, particularly with respect to the radom patterns of violence. But when viewed in the context of destablizing societies, particularly in Indonesia, and exasperating ethnic, religious, social or economic tensions, there is some evidence fo insurgent intent to bring down the government rather than overthrow it.