Russian shelling's and ground attacks have basically gone on all day long........
14:53 #Krasnohorivka @amdh2012 Battle, small arms
https://maidantranslations.com/2016/...letmypeoplego/
Dmitry Tymchuk:
Military update 05.30
Operational data from Information Resistance:
During the past weekend (May 28 – 29, 2016), Russian-terrorist troops in Donbas continued actively violating the Minsk agreements by shelling the ATO forces’ positions from 120 mm mortars and 122 mm artillery systems, along the entire line of contact. Armed confrontations were observed in several locations.
Militants repeatedly used 120 mm mortars in the vicinity of Avdiivka (enemy gunners and spotters operating near the bridge). Numerous militant attacks with small arms and stand-mounted grenade launchers (AGS-17 and SPG-9M) were recorded in the summer cottages area near Avdiivka’s industrial zone, as well as near the ATO forces’ positions at the Butovska mine (ventilation shaft of the Putylivska mine), the “Zenith” position, and other areas in the southwestern direction of operations.
Enemy sniper groups (armed with large-caliber sniper rifles) are highly active in the industrial zone of Avdiivka, near Mar’inka, and southeast of Novhorodske. At the same time, terrorists are using anti-tank missiles on several sections of the front to destroy the ATO forces’ armored vehicles and equipment. In some instances, [anti-tank missiles were] aimed at Ukrainian troops’ fortified firing positions.
The ATO Museum, "The Roads of Donbas" opened in Dnipro on May 26, 2016 Source
The ATO Museum, “The Roads of Donbas” opened in Dnipro on May 26, 2016 Source
Russian-terrorist forces stepped up their activity in the area of Horlivka. In the area of Luhanske and on the Svitlodarsk salient, militants are attempting to force the ATO forces from their positions by actively shelling them from different (mainly flank) positions in the open country, and by using trained sabotage and reconnaissance groups. At the same time, militants are heavily shelling Mayorsk, Zaitseve, and Novhorodske from the western and northwestern outskirts of Horlivka.
Militants repeatedly opened fire from 122 mm cannon artillery (in 4-5 shell salvos) from their positions southwest and east of Styla, as ranging fire on the ATO forces’ positions. Terrorists also used 122 mm artillery from positions in the vicinity of the 206.9 m high ground (fire adjustment), and from positions south of the Starolaspa village. According to IR group’s data, current usage of cannon artillery by terrorists is related to the “training process” used for “qualifying practice fire” in the course of shooting practice for units of the Russian Armed Forces and militants trained by Russian instructors.
In the area east of Talakivka and Lomakyne (north of Vodyane), militants fired at the ATO forces’ two advanced strongholds from two positions near the Oktyabr village and in the area northwest of the Kominternove settlement. During these attacks, the enemy used 82 mm mortars and small arms. An enemy group attempted to approach our advanced positions near Shyrokyne, moving in from the direction of Sakhanka, then retreated to the starting line after a brief skirmish.
Terrorists continue their reconnaissance activity, including the use of UAVs (up to 5-7 daily UAV flights), which monitor the ATO forces’ operational-tactical zone. The main targets of enemy intelligence include Ukrainian troop command points, locations of supply warehousing and storage (in the tactical and operational-tactical zones), as well as the areas and lines of Ukrainian troop concentration and deployment.
Terrorists’ use of UAVs follows a certain pattern:
• Most UAVs are used during the hours of darkness, making it difficult for Ukrainian troops to counteract them;
• Accordingly, enemy UAVs are predominantly equipped with night-vision optical devices, including thermal imaging cameras;
• In addition to UAVs with reconnaissance capabilities, militants began actively using UAVs capable of dropping incendiary ammunition. Because these ordnances are small-sized, high-performance and heavily used, [these UAVs] are capable of starting a large number of fires throughout a relatively small area;
• The enemy is increasingly using UAVs for diversion and identification of the ATO forces’ air defense systems, and to provoke Ukrainian troops into opening fire so as to uncover the ATO forces’ fire organization and delivery system on different sections of the front line.
The Russian military command decided on a gradual increase in the “cash allowance” for privates and sergeants in the “DNR 1st Army Corps” and the “LNR 2nd Army Corps.” The respective instruction indicates that the increase in “salaries” applies exclusively to local militants and Russian mercenaries who had signed “contracts” with the military leadership of the “DNR” and the “LNR,” as well as with the “staffing authorities of the South Military District of the Russian Federation” (it is currently unknown what this term refers to). This order does not apply to the rest of the “volunteers,” “Cossacks,” and others. At the same time, the Russian presidential administration ordered the command of both territorial units to “get things in order” concerning personnel records and payment of cash allowances.
Russian shelling's and ground attacks have basically gone on all day long........
14:53 #Krasnohorivka @amdh2012 Battle, small arms
"LNR" militants forbid residents to leave the occupied village Novooleksandrivka - OSCE
pic.twitter.com/NqBRkJCWPk
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-june-...dents-to-leave …
Next time you sit thru a 30-slide powerpoint plan remember Monty planned D-Day on one sheet of paper
There has not been a truer statement coming out of the Russian FM.....now they finally speak the "truth"....
At a media forum in Moscow, Russian MFA spokesperson Mariya Zakharova's just said "I'm a propagandist who believes in objective journalism"
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-06-2016 at 09:23 AM.
OSCE: Armed “DPR” members continue to keep the power supply to SMM’s repeater in #Donetsk city disconnected, as they have since 20 May
As a result, SMM remote monitoring equipment at “DPR”-controlled Oktiabr mine & in govt-controlled #Avdiivka are disabled
Reference the JIT investigation of the Russian shot down of MH17......
Investigators weren't allowed to access telephone network or cell towers in Luhansk
https://www.om.nl/mh17-ezine-juni201...amples-en.html …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-06-2016 at 09:24 AM.
Traditional Russian evening shelling from Donetsk outskirts began earlier today.
19:17 NE #Donetsk @Shymanovski small arms together with heavies
#Yakovlivka direction. Becoming more frequent
19:10 #Donetsk #Putilovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] listening to battle on: AR/MG bursts mixed with single heavy booms, intensity above average
18:20 #Donetsk @nixer79 some battle in the area of #Spartak, kind of mortar duel, 2-3sec betw/salvo-explosion, small arms
18:22 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#DOK: heavy salvos in the north
#Kalinina mine: it booms from afar, north direction, probably NW
17:43 #Donetsk @nixer79 a Ural truck w/body full of RU w/assault rifles went northwards along #Universytetska, plate: DK3642, sign: #15 in ○
18:21 #Donetsk #Zaperevalna @parovozkrivonos Adjusted, 3 [more] salvos applied one after another
18:09 #Donetsk #Topaz @cranovschik there have been 3-4 dull salvos coming like from the south/southeast, rollingly with echo...
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-06-2016 at 06:04 PM.
Russia propaganda outlet promotes Russian war games in #Cuba, #Venezuela & #Brazil to test US.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/345422-na...latin-america/ …
Guardian: #Russia's 'valiant hero' in #Ukraine turns his fire on Vladimir #Putin
http://uatoday.tv/politics/guardian-...in-667871.html …
Head of Ukrainian Security Service: Russian Main Intelligence Agency planned to blow up SBU detention centre in Kyiv
http://uatoday.tv/crime/russian-inte...ce-667635.html …
In addition to firing weapons from civilian roofs, Russian militants now restrict movement of Donbas residents.
http://www.unian.info/war/1366827-mi...lage-osce.html …
Lavrov: Russia Will Respond To NATO Baltic Activity
http://upnorth.eu/lavrov-russia-will...ltic-activity/ …
Russia FM Lavrov blames #Ukraine for not implementing Minsk ... when Moscow-backed separatists not implementing ceasefire, arms withdrawal.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-06-2016 at 05:59 PM.
22:01 #Horlivka @PhoenixxxCzar28 One can see vehicles on move along the frontline. Salvos in #Mayorsk-#Zaytseve area, round 4-5sec explosionOriginally Posted by OUTLAW 09
21:58 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM ongoing battle, something heavy rumbles
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-06-2016 at 07:29 PM.
Attack of the Russian Troll Army: American Websites Targeted By Russian Trolls
https://lnkd.in/eWdVRS9
NOW Putin and Russia have serious problem on their hands.....
Reference the Russian shot down of MH17.....
MH17 crash: Big Buk missile part found in Ukraine - BBC News
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36462853 …
International investigators have published a photo of a large Buk missile component found at the MH17 airliner crash site eastern Ukraine.
The Joint Investigation Team (JIT) image shows a "Venturi", which emits propellant gases, like a car exhaust.
Dutch prosecutors want more information from Russia about the Buk, which they say killed 298 people aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in July 2014.
The West and Ukraine say Russian-backed rebels fired the Buk missile.
Russia argues that Ukrainian forces downed MH17. The Boeing 777, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, crashed in rebel-held territory.
The JIT interim report explains the progress of the criminal inquiry. The experts are studying a mass of tiny fragments retrieved from the crash site.
Last year, a Dutch Safety Board report concluded that MH17 was downed by a Russian-made Buk, but did not say who fired it. Board president Djibbe Joustra said at the time that the rebels were in charge of the area from which it was fired.
Initially the MH17 investigation was hampered by restricted access to the crash site
Dutch prosecutors plan to present the results of their investigation in the autumn. They say it is at "a very advanced stage".
But the JIT interim report says more technical and operational details about the missile are needed.
The Boeing 777 crashed at the height of the conflict between Ukrainian government troops and pro-Russian separatists.
Some families of the victims are suing Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin, in the European Court of Human Rights.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-07-2016 at 08:04 AM.
For #Russia it’s infinitely worse to be ignored than to be considered a worthy rival:
http://reut.rs/1VGTrR0
AND the Ukrainian Russian war just keeps on grinding away and the West says nothing......appears the West is getting use to a war just hours from NATO borders.....
ATO spox: 1 Ukr serviceman KIA and 9 WIA in yesterday's battles.
News
Record number of 40 Ukrainian army casualties during the first 6 days of June.
1 KIA, 9 WIA on Monday
Breaking
russia today account hacked!!!
Ukrainian hackers post ridiculous gif animations of putin now.
Luhansk area (with #Shchastya and #StanytsiaLuhanska) frontline map HD:
http://img.ly/DKp4
Crimean Court refuses to find Crimean Tatar remembrance unlawful
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465314697 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-07-2016 at 04:47 PM.
MFA Russia
@mfa_russia
#Grushko: NATO keeps training Ukrainian armed forces & we see them moving closer to the conflict zone
http://bit.ly/22MlY8F
Russia alarmed by NATO states’ programs with Ukraine —
June 06, 21:55 UTC+3
Russia’s NATO Ambassador Alexander Grushko says Nato keeps training Ukrainian special forces, Ukrainian armed forces
So what? We see you moving INSIDE the conflict zone.MOSCOW, June 6./TASS/. Russia is concerned over bilateral programs of certain NATO countries with Ukraine, Russia’s NATO Ambassador Alexander Grushko told Rossiya 24 television on Monday.
"We are no less concerned over bilateral programs implemented by certain NATO countries. In particular, they keep training Ukrainian special forces, Ukrainian armed forces," Grushko said. "And we see that these trained forces are moving closer to the conflict zone. This fuels escalation and plays into the hands of the party of war, fueling revanchist sentiments," he said.
This game "is at variance with the interests of not only Ukraine, but of the Western European countries," he added. The role of NATO "in the Ukrainian crisis was unequivocally negative, including in the genesis of the crisis itself," Grushko went on.
Earlier NATO’S Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Curtis Scaparotti, said the Alliance should support Ukraine with all it needed to protect its sovereignty and territory.
"I do believe that we should support the Ukrainians with what they need to successfully defend their territory and their sovereignty," Scaparrotti said.
#BREAKING: A Lenin monument is decapitated in central Moscow
https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/06/07...campaign=share …
Christo Grozev @christogrozev
Re-reading what I wrote on Girkin vs Putin two years ago & wondering if I was way way off or bulls-eye on
https://cgrozev.wordpress.com/2014/05/31/putins-pickle/ …
Putin’s Pickle
Posted on May 31, 2014
The Thief Next Door: Russia's rich history of annexing neighbouring countriesThe Ukrainian secession crisis brought about a sharp boost in Putin’s popularity at home: his latest approval ratings are at a soaring 83% and keep climbing. However, rather than a sign of presidential longevity (a new joke calls Putin the “odd President”, as opposed to his “even” partner Medvedev), this jump may be a precursor of an imminent demise.
Here are the arguments for such an unintuitive conclusion.
First, the war on Ukraine was not engineered by Putin. While he is a clear beneficiary, he is not in the driver’s seat of the invasion – and he feels visibly uncomfortable with this sinecure position. What is worse, the people who are in the driver’s seat are not Putin’s natural allies – and their symbiotic relation is unlikely to last beyond a few months.
Let’s consider some of the actual engineers of “Project Ukraine”.
The self-appointed “Minister of War” in Eastern Ukraine, Igor Girkin, is the man with the actual (military) power on the ground. His war-time buddy from the Transnistria secession war in 1992, is the self-appointed Prime Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Their key remote collaborators in Moscow are Marat Musin and Olga Kolygina. None of these are natural friends of Putin, quite on the contrary. All four have historically been anti-Putin (and anti-establishment) in their ideology, and until very recently – in their public statements. All four were activists who, arms in hand, tried to topple Yeltsin in 1993. Two of the four are self-admitted monarchists, the other two are essentially hard-line communists, but all four are united by their extreme “Greater Russia” ideology, and would give their lives to return Russia to the quasi-empire it was under the Soviet Union.
None of the four – and more importantly, neither of the two now dealing the cards on the ground in Eastern Ukraine – are reporting up to Putin. They report directly to their sponsor: the “orthodox oligarch” Konstantin Malofeev. A clear proof of the absence of even a dotted reporting line to the Kremlin was the intercepted call between Putin’s personal envoy Lukin and Col. Girkin – Lukin was sent to “negotiate” the release of the kidnapped OSCE monitors, but Girkin only agreed to release them because his boss – Malofeev – told him to. Not because Putin (via his envoy) asked him to.
Let’s look at the sponsor himself. Malofeev. The billionaire was detained over fraud charges by Putin as recently as November 2012; and his property – including his controlling shares in Rostelecom – was put under a criminal arrest. It was only through an undisclosed arrangement that the charges were dropped and the shares were released. Whatever political truce Malofeev may have agreed with Putin, it is only going to last for as long as Putin has the leverage. The moment Malofeev gets any leverage over Putin, revenge for the public humiliation is likely to be imminent. And Malofeev now has the leverage of control over the self-determination of a new country – for which Putin has taken the full public credit, on credit.
Another influential “actor” we might consider is Alexander Barkashov, an extreme – openly fascist – former politician, who brought his swastika-bearing private army to shoot at Yeltsin’s supporters in 1993 (thus his linkage to the “big four”). Barkashov was the person caught on tape giving instructions to the Donetsk activists on how to fabricate the upcoming referendum results; he was also caught referring to Putin as, essentially, a sissy who is not willing to provide the military support needed for a successful secession from Ukraine. In the call, the local Donetsk activist asked Barkashov for permission to postpone the referendum, citing lack of time to prepare for a plausible “due process”. Barkashov said absolutely not. The next day, Putin made a public appeal to separatists to postpone the vote. Guess which of the two instructions the Donetsk “self-defense” heeded. (No points for ignoring Putin).
So, all in all, not difficult to see where this is going. People who have no reason to like Putin, have full control over the way separatists in Eastern Ukraine act. They have been smartly patient in allowing him to bask in the legend of “Vladimir the Uniter”, but will only do that for pragmatic reasons. These reasons include fostering the belief in the media in Russia that this is Putin’s project (and for as long as they believe this, they will break their legs push to support the separatists – and in the process, to glorify Girkin and Boroday. They also include the foreign policy support by Russia to their actions – engaging the mighty power of Russian diplomacy and foreign propaganda to demonize the Ukrainian army’s anti-terrorist initiatives and brand them as “genocide on their own people”. But this bunch won’t stop at that. They know that Putin will come to his Waterloo very soon. A likely Waterloo will be the decision – that he will have to make – to NOT accept the new-fangled republics DNR, LNR and all the *NRs that will keep popping up. Annexing these territories is a non-option for Putin – it will virtually destroy the Russian economy. It is almost possible to accommodate 1.8 m people who are net budget recipients, but quite another to find the funds for another 7 or 8 m budget drainers. And let’s not forget the pariah state that Russia will become once it annexes territories that don’t have even the flimsy “part-of-Russia” legend that the Crimea had. Even the sanction-wary EU countries will be forced to act on full scale then.
Putin is in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t pickle. If he does offer military intervention and/or annex Eastern Ukraine, the Russian economy will collapse and he will quickly became unelectable. If he doesn’t, he will condemn Eastern Ukraine to the status of a new Transnistria, and will be branded as a traitor to the “Greater Russia” resurrection idea. That will make him unelectable again.
Let me make one thing clear: Putin’s pickle in the Ukrainian context is not something that I just discovered; there have been numerous publications on his no-win dilemma.
What I am trying to bring to the debate is the very strong probability that this predicament is not a chance deviation from the Kremlin’s original plan. On the contrary, I strongly believe that the pickle was the plan itself. A plan written by people, who – for one – will not allow Putin to take the credit for something that he hardly even contributed to.
Now, the fact that the carpet is likely going to be pulled from under Putin’s feet by the initiators of the Ukraine secession crisis do not mean that they will succeed. There are many other factors that make sure the inertia is in favor of Putin – his strong control over the FSB and judicial system and over the media. However, there are likely to be centrifugal forces there too. The Russian oligarchs – who are Putin’s proxies in control of the media – are not thrilled with the sanctions, while Putin, as a Russian economist said, prefers the sanctions to be expanded to as many oligarchs as possible, to keep their interests aligned with his. When they decide to switch their loyalties is a function only of how much longer he can feed them “Sochi”s” and – now – “Crimea’s” – but all these projects depend on his ability to squander budget rubles. Which may not last much longer, especially if he does act on Eastern Ukraine.
Last, let’s not forget the army. While it is in the firm grip of the Kremlin, there are more and more military online forums where Girkin and the “Russian volunteers in Ukraine” are beginning to get a halo of near-mystical respect that may well compete for their loyalty, given the opportunity.
In 2010, Girkin wrote to a friend:
“Everyone I talk to…swears allegiance to Putin […] In Russia, today, it seems there is nothing to be done. There is no conflict, no catalyst, everything is strictly under control […] Maybe a Transnistria option for Ukraine can be such a catalyst.
In any case, I have many friends -veterans from Transnistria and the Chechen wars – who are willing to sacrifice anything and will show up at a moment’s notice”
It just might be that by now he has many more friends – or ready followers – in the Russian military.
http://uatoday.tv/society/the-thief-...es-668601.html …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-07-2016 at 06:57 PM.
Mocking Putin Got Me Sent to Twitter Gulag
http://thebea.st/1tdIFH6
I had posted something to this effect several days ago......
Did #NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-fr...orbachev-pifer …
ATO: 36 russian attacks in #Donbas y/day, nr Avdiivka & Butovka mine UAF pos. came unde fire fr heavy machine guns, GLs, mortars, artillery.
7:26AM
"Good morning. Towards #Shyrokyno 120-mm mortars incoming
Reference Russian shot down of MH17...this is actually a new development in the investigation...
Raids in Germany, Switzerland in #MH17 probe
https://www.yahoo.com/news/raids-ger...-sh&soc_trk=tw …
Russia rejects missile defense cooperation with U.S., turns down every U.S. proposal
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/348560.html …
Russia concerned by reports that Germany sees Kremlin as a 'threat'
http://bit.ly/1U6Cux7
Russian Violations of Borders, Treaties, and Human Rights
http://gettopical.com/ukraine/b1962f...8f?src=twitter …
This #Tank Has Become an Icon of #Russia|’s Secret War in #Ukraine
https://warisboring.com/this-tank-ha...bae#.ehkcpfdot …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-08-2016 at 05:30 AM.
APPEARS Russia is running out of money for eastern Ukraine....
Intelligence: Militants' wages drop, payments delayed
http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/660...s-delayed.html …
Some reasons for Putin to lose sleep: Analysts see Kremlin thinking of world war
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/kremli
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
Kremlin Said Thinking about World War But Russians May Not Be Ready to Fight for Narva
Paul Goble
Staunton, June 7 – “Judging by everything,” Yevgeny Kiselyov says, “the Kremlin is seriously considering the scenario of a military conflict with the West, and with a high degree of probability could unleash this conflict in the Baltics.” But there is at least one indication this week that ordinary Russians may be less than enthusiastic about dying for Narva.
The Russian journalist says that he reached this “extremely worrisome conclusion” after several developments this past week, most prominently the statement of Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko that the Russian leadership is no longer willing to put up with discrimination against Russians abroad (echo.msk.ru/blog/kiselev/1778686-echo/).
That is disturbing on two grounds: Moscow made the same argument before using military force in Crimea, and Matvienko mentioned far more countries as problematic from the Kremlin’s point of view on this issue than is typically the case, including not just the Baltic states but Belarus and even Kazakhstan.
And related to that is the reappearance of a second argument by those near the Kremlin that they used before sending forces into the Ukrainian peninsula, “if Russian military units hadn’t taken Crimea under its control,” they argued then and suggest once again, then two weeks later there would have been NATO forces.”
Kiselyov says that that argument was nothing new for the Kremlin: it had used it before sending troops into Czechoslovakia in 1968 and into Afghanistan in 1979. And now senior Russian officials like Frantz Klinetsevich, the first deputy head of the Federation Council’s defense and security committee, has resuscitated them about the Baltics.
He is arguing, Kiselyov says, that “NATO is preparing a place des armes for a military strike against Russian” in the Baltic countries” and strongly implying that Moscow needs to take “a ’preventive’ hybrid special operation of military and special services of the Russian Federation against this threat.
By issuing such threats, Moscow is “attempting to use intimidation tactics,” with some even talking about the need to use tactical nuclear weapons,” an action that if taken would put NATO in a difficult position: if it responded in kind, there could be escalation to full-scale war; if it did not, NATO might die as a result.
That Vladimir Putin is prepared to push things to the limit was shown, Kiselyov says, by his rejection of Aleksey Kudrin’s argument that the Kremlin should seek a rapprochement with the West to save the economy. The Kremlin leader not only said he would never trade on Russia’s sovereignty but also added that he would defend Russia “to the end of his life.”
That last phrase, the Moscow journalist argues, “speaks volumes.”
“The diagnosis of the situation is bad,” he continues. “Putin lives as a prisoner of his own ambitions and phobias,” which suggest to him that Russia is surrounded by enemies and that the West is trying to destroy it and him. In this, Kiselyov says, Putin thinks just like the zombified Russian population that he has created.
What is more significant, he continues, is “not only this episode but practically any discussion about how to get the Russian economy out of its prolonged crisis runs into one and the same thing: the striving of the Putin regime to retain power at any price,” including military conflict and nuclear blackmail.
“Any serious reforms are impossible without political liberalization,” Kiselyov suggests, something that the Kremlin understands quite well. But if it begins reforms, it will “inevitably” lose power or be forced to share it with others. “The only alternative is the tightening of the screws … all under the flag of uniting the nation against a foreign threat.”
As a result, the Moscow journalist suggests, “military confrontation with the West is becoming ever more likely, and most likely of all in the Baltic region.” Of course, Putin could expand the war in Ukraine or launch something in Kazakhstan or Belarus, but these are “exotic scenarios” given his past approach. Consequently, he is going to go to the brink in the Baltics – and possibly even over it.
But there is at least one indication that perhaps the Russian people aren’t nearly as enthusiastic about that prospect and that they do not want to “fight for Narva” for Putin’s vision and salvation and against the Western alliance, especially because they can see that NATO has built up serious forces in the region, Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts argues.
In an article in today’s “Yezhednevny zhurnal” entitled “Will We Fight for Narva?” he observes that the Western alliance has “in fact returned to the scenarios of the cold war. No one is talking about whether Russian threatens or not the countries of the alliance. Instead, they talk about where this threat is greatest and how to counter it” (ej.ru/?a=note&id=29778).
NATO has developed a system for putting its forces in forward areas, Golts observes. “Earlier, the field of battled was assumed to be Germany; today, it is the Baltic region,” and even Sweden and Finland, which during the earlier Cold War, were neutral, are now “taking part in NATO military preparations.”
Obviously, Moscow has to react to this, a situation it played the key role in creating. But one chain of events this week suggests that the Russian people may be less enthusiastic about war than Putin is and more frightened of the NATO forces with which any Russian move would have to deal.
First, a senior Russian parliamentarian announced that the defense ministry planned to close some of the military training faculties in key universities; and then the defense ministry denied this was the case. Golts suggests that perhaps the best explanation is that the Kremlin didn’t want to “take the risk” of doing something like this before the elections.
And that in turn suggests, although Golts does not take this next step, that at least some in the Presidential Administration are worried about how the Russian people view what the Kremlin leader’s warlike attitudes will lead to and what they will mean for their own lives and not just his.
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