Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

A good explanation of the power struggle in Zimbabwe:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...re-post-mugabe

Interesting that the release of government records in the UK, USA and Australia, may have an impact.

[davidbfpo]

Via a newsletter on Zimbabwe:

In the second week of May, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said that up to 4.5 million people - half of Zimbabwe's drought-stricken rural population - will need aid by March 2017. A few weeks before the UN launched an appeal for $360 million to provide life-saving assistance for more than three million people. The UN Resident Coordinator for Zimbabwe said at the end of May that $70 million has been received, leaving a gap of $290 million.

Meanwhile the country director of the UN World Food Programme, pointed out that Zimbabwe´s 2016 maize production forecast would fall below 60% of the five-year average. Zimbabwe's average harvest in the last five years has been between 700,000 and 1 5 million tonnes, against annual consumption of between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes, he said. An El Nino-induced drought has hit southern Africa and cut the output of the staple maize crop. In March, the government said 4 million Zimbabweans required food aid, almost 30% of the national population.

The majority of Zimbabweans still live in the countryside, even though large numbers have moved to the cities.

Is this a pre-revolutionary time?

[Firn]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

[davidbfpo]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

Firn,

I would agree, but this report suggests that this time could be different and the key point is in bold:

A general strike paralysed Zimbabwe on Wednesday as shops and businesses shut down, public transport came to a halt and children were turned away from school......A spiralling economic crisis means that Zimbabwe has run out of money. The regime can no longer pay civil servants or teachers and strict limits have been imposed on the amount that ordinary people can withdraw from bank accounts......In the past, Mr Mugabe, 92, would simply order the Reserve Bank to print money whenever his coffers were empty. But the worst hyperinflation in history forced Zimbabwe to abandon its national currency in 2009. The country now uses the US dollar – which Mr Mugabe cannot print.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-out-of-money/

When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

[davidbfpo]

Professor Stephen Chan is a SME on Zimbabwe and has an article on the visit to the City of London this week by Zimbabwe's Finance Minister:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-finance-minister-makes-a-doomed-pitch-to-londons-big-businesses-62015?

A reminder of the position:

Zimbabwe has no money, and its government has no fiscal plan. Its reserves are emptied, tax revenues are inadequate, public funds are still ransacked, and much of the country’s remaining formal employment is in an unproductive public service.

(Later) But Mugabe is simply not trusted by the rest of the world, and he dares not mandate a change to the indigenisation law – especially not now, as his health declines and as he perhaps secretly looks to secure his wife’s path to succeed him. Indigenisation was meant to placate Zimbabwean nationalism, which still percolates among younger generations as well as older ones.

[Firn]

Good reads. The day will come when power changes hands. Without a widely shared, supported, clear and hardly disputed way as in a modern democracy this is bound to create great tensions and potential violent conflict as has been seen time and time again. Especially so as in a state like Zimbabwe the winner may take almost all while the losers may lose all, including it's life.

Economic actors without political backing might suffer greatly in such a conflict as their wealth is some of the increasingly spare capital available for the rent seeking. Land is one of the most important assets which remains in a starved economy and it's allocation may be crucial to secure political support. That will be another heavy blow for the economy and the hungry masses but might be seen as key to take political control...

[davidbfpo]

Two articles, one an analysis and the second a tale of high-level antics.

The first, in a South African blog and I noted these two points:

A lot depends on whether the army gets paid or not on Friday

Then following "family first" for President Mugabe:

his closest family, including wife Grace Mugabe, are currently in Singapore.

Link:http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/artic...-go-from-here/

The police arrest two suspects for corruption and who arives at the police station demanding their release, which is recorded by hand in the record books? The Vice President!
Link:https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/07/15...-zinara-storm/