Mass shooting(s) after Orlando (amended title)

[slapout9]

Link to latest about suspects wife.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/gun...cid=spartandhp

[davidbfpo]

Peter Bergen has an op-ed in the NYT which starts with:

AFTER a terrorist attack like the one in Florida on Sunday, one of the first questions people always ask is: Why? Why would someone take the lives of innocent civilians who are total strangers? That is a question to which I have long sought an answer. But my search has led me instead to another question: Is an answer even possible?

He ends with:

No doubt we will learn more in coming days. But it’s unlikely that anything will ever really explain why he did what he did. Perhaps that says something about the nature of evil, — that it is ultimately not fully explicable. Even the perpetrators themselves can never really articulate “Why?” in any meaningful way.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/opinion/why-do-terrorists-commit-terrorism.html?

After recent reporting, notably that the murderer had been inside the venue many times before and the incoherent views expressed I am less inclined to think this attack was really Jihadist.

[AmericanPride]

Peter Bergen has an op-ed in the NYT which starts with:

He ends with:
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/opinion/why-do-terrorists-commit-terrorism.html?

After recent reporting, notably that the murderer had been inside the venue many times before and the incoherent views expressed I am less inclined to think this attack was really Jihadist.

David,

I'm of the opinion that a substantial number (or even majority) of "jihadists", at least in the "lone wolf" context, use the ideology as form of escapism and empowerment from some other internal torment. When people are alienated from the mainstream, they frequently adopt beliefs and behaviors to rationalize their condition - and sometimes a violent response to it.

[davidbfpo]

David,

I'm of the opinion that a substantial number (or even majority) of "jihadists", at least in the "lone wolf" context, use the ideology as form of escapism and empowerment from some other internal torment. When people are alienated from the mainstream, they frequently adopt beliefs and behaviors to rationalize their condition - and sometimes a violent response to it.

I do wonder if the US security sector, both government and others, would prefer that such an attacker be a "lone wolf" with announced jihadist views. Responding to the wider societal issues of 'beliefs and behaviors' is even more problematic; note a previous post elsewhere on the proportion of the US population who were prepared to use violence for political ends.

[slapout9]

IMO there is more to the father then is being presented.

[AmericanPride]

I do wonder if the US security sector, both government and others, would prefer that such an attacker be a "lone wolf" with announced jihadist views. Responding to the wider societal issues of 'beliefs and behaviors' is even more problematic; note a previous post elsewhere on the proportion of the US population who were prepared to use violence for political ends.

When compared to counter-terrorism, mental health is not exactly a pressing political issue in the US. In Orlando, I definitely think the ISIS connection was "opportunistic" and it is much easier for security types to respond to a security problem than a social problem.

[OUTLAW 09]

FBI never thought gay club would be target, i.e. they are NOT threat-focused
http://eastorlandopost.com/report-or...ther-gay-clubs …

NEVER senses to amaze me that US IC and that includes the FBI....just how little they fully understand the ideology of Sunni AND Shia Salafist jihadi's....

Do they never watch their info war gay killing videos or read their announcements against gays or is it still being just viewed as "propaganda"...????

13 years into this and yet they still do not "understand" what they are "seeing".....

IS is talking to directly to the West and their "believer's" yet we are unable to "listen"....BTW...that dialogue has been ongoing since 2002 and we are now in what ....2016.....and have we learned anything from this dialogue...nothing absolutely nothing.

To understand IS and Salafist jihadi's one must understand the ideology....
Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan · Jun 13

IS ideology: a product of a slow hybridization between doctrinaire Salafism and Islamist currents http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06...l-context/j1iy …
my in-depth paper

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
"Relying [solely] on the titles of books and writings used by the Islamic State can distort, not inform, the understanding of its ideology"

Once one fully understands Salafists...THEN start understanding Takfirism...this shooter was a Takfirist....

THAT is exactly why the FBU blew it when they interviewed him as they had no idea what Takfirism is inside Islam..and if one is truly honest all of the 9/11 attackers were also Takfirists....as was the recent CA attacker....

Lone wolf is just a term to create a smoke screen on having to admit by the US IC and FBI they have no earthly idea of how to handle Takfirists as they do not fit the concept of a trained jihadi sleeper cell.

The US IC and FBI have slept through the subtle IS shift in tactics and it will take a large amount of effort to catch up....if they can in fact catch up......IS constantly learns and we sleep at the wheel...typical...

[slapout9]

To understand IS and Salafist jihadi's one must understand the ideology....
Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan · Jun 13

IS ideology: a product of a slow hybridization between doctrinaire Salafism and Islamist currents http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06...l-context/j1iy …
my in-depth paper

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
"Relying [solely] on the titles of books and writings used by the Islamic State can distort, not inform, the understanding of its ideology"

Once one fully understands Salafists...THEN start understanding Takfirism...this shooter was a Takfirist....

THAT is exactly why the FBU blew it when they interviewed him as they had no idea what Takfirism is inside Islam..and if one is truly honest all of the 9/11 attackers were also Takfirists....as was the recent CA attacker....

Lone wolf is just a term to create a smoke screen on having to admit by the US IC and FBI they have no earthly idea of how to handle Takfirists as they do not fit the concept of a trained jihadi sleeper cell.

The US IC and FBI have slept through the subtle IS shift in tactics and it will take a large amount of effort to catch up....if they can in fact catch up......IS constantly learns and we sleep at the wheel...typical...

Again well said.

[AmericanPride]

Outlaw-

In regards to Orlando specifically, Islamic terrorism is certainly one narrative, but certainly not the only or exclusive one. And probably not the dominant one. By all publicly available accounts, Mateen was apparently mentally disturbed. By the time he expressed support for ISIS, he was already well on his way towards radicalization and violence.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw-

In regards to Orlando specifically, Islamic terrorism is certainly one narrative, but certainly not the only or exclusive one. And probably not the dominant one. By all publicly available accounts, Mateen was apparently mentally disturbed. By the time he expressed support for ISIS, he was already well on his way towards radicalization and violence.

AP...here is the problem.....he was Muslim and gay (BTW it has not been totally confirmed he was actually gay) and in that environment which we cannot even comprehend while our society has it's own problems with the term "gay" ....that is in the Muslim world an even deadlier mixture.

Just check how IS handles the problem in Iraq and Syria...BUT here again the problem....IS has a history of looking for "gays" and actually incorporating them into their "far fight"......especially since "conversion to Islam" basically washes away your previous sins....notice IS never went into his life style did it when they called him a "fighter"..in their immediate PR.....that term alone says it all.

Terming someone "mental" is an easy way out and then we do not have to research the answer as to why..."he went mental" and exactly how did the FBI "blow it". Here is again a problem...in his mind he was not "mental"...remember it was his very own mind that was driving him that day.

Back to Takfirism....if one fully understands it you will see that the ideology of "Takfirists" is far different than that of Salafists....

Takfirists say you as a Muslim can drink, party, go to strip clubs, womanize around, take drugs, dress differently and YES even be gay because and here is the clue you as a "perfect warrior/fighter" are using the norms of your enemy to defeat him as he cannot see you as he assumes you are just one of the group and you do not stick out......a form of "camouflage" if you like...and he uses this "camouflage" to defeat his declared "enemy.

BTW the only Muslim in Islam that can kill another Muslim and not have to pay a price for the killing is a "Takfirist".....we saw that often "ideologically" used by first QJBR then AQI in Iraq to justify their killing of other Sunni insurgent leaders for not "following the correct path".

We now see the circle come full circle....using two different tactical methods by AQ and now IS.....

Shortly after 9/11, a US journalist well versed in Islam and speaking Arabic went to Hamburg GE and conducted a series of long interviews with the wife's and girlfriend's and close friends of the 9/11 Hamburg cell which was one of the driving forces of the 9/11 attack. Then he published his book...which got some interest and today you cannot find a single copy available anywhere for some strange reason, not even to be found in used book stores.

Strangely the actions of this Hamburg group paralleled that of the CA attacker and that of Orlando...remember the CA attacker also drank, partied hard and went to clubs also with his wife AS well as did the entire group of 9/11 attackers.

WHY..... the entire 9/11 Hamburg cell went through a self radicalization process from Salafist to Takfirist together and they all went to the same mosque together making the radicalization process far easier.

What struck me in the book was his description of the term that these Hamburg family members and close friends said the group often would use in political and religious debates and conversations......they viewed themselves as "perfect warriors".

The term IS used in their PR release in claiming the attack....was "fighter" which can be interchanged and is often interchanged with the word "warrior"...."warrior" used to be used for a killed cell member as a sign of deep respect, but it has become interchangeable with the "term "fighter" since the series of attacks in Europe in the last year as IS was shifting tactically from cell attackers to individual attackers.

NOW jump to Iraq 2005 and 2006....when I was dealing with detained fighters from Ansar al Sunnah and AQI I would ask them in the middle of a long interrogation and in no connection to the previous questions...."are you a perfect warrior"....which even my US Iraqi Muslim interpreter had not idea what it meant until I explained it to him......the question always caught them off guard and after usually a long pregnant period of total silence they quietly would say yes......emphasis on "quietly"......then and only then did we get to the truth because they recognized that even in Iraq there was an American who fully understood their religious driver..and I could hold my own using Koranic verses..I usually got great reports.

Only they were never read at national nor did national ever ask for a follow up.

So again we need to fully and frankly understand both ideological drivers of the jihadi world.....BTW we have not even touched the world of Shia jihadists.

There was though one comment he made that immediately caught my attention...he stated he was doing this because of the killing and bombing in Syria...he did not use killing and bombing of IS BUT used the word Syria.

So in his self radicalization process did he pick up on the fact that the US was allowing Syrian Muslims to be virtually butchered with no response coming from the US...was he actually faulting the US for the lack of any US actions in protecting Muslims....along with the standard IS rhetoric.

Over the last five years there has been plenty of videos on the net depicting the genocide and killing of Arab Sunni's many claiming they were from US bombings and now with the Russian bombings there was a flood of such videos many very graphic in nature especially of killed children and women.

That is a major critique of the current US policy that we hear louder and louder out of the ME from those fighting Assad as well as the IS itself.

Also notice many faulted him immediately for appearing to stupidly mixing all forms of different terrorist groups....Hezbollah, IS etc....BUT wait jihadists of all political directions including Shiaism all share similar Islamic beliefs and the US is always the target.

We really do need to get away from the IS "sleeper cells" myth and ask ourselves how do we counter a single "believer".....and how do we "spot him or her" when they look, act, drink, talk and think like we do in every day life......ie "the perfect warrior"......

[OUTLAW 09]

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
My latest @ForeignPolicy assessment of ISIS's current state of play, in the context of the Orlando attack

Washington’s War on the Islamic State Is Only Making It Stronger

The caliphate is losing territory in Iraq and Syria, but the U.S.-backed military campaign is stoking sectarian tensions that could spread global jihad

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/16/...ia-iraq-libya/

[slapout9]

We really do need to get away from the IS "sleeper cells" myth and ask ourselves how do we counter a single "believer".....and how do we "spot him or her" when they look, act, drink, talk and think like we do in every day life......ie "the perfect warrior"......

You should expand upon that if you can. The actions the attacker took were very similar to the the attack that happened to me and my wife. In our case he started going to funerals of people that were NOT related to him! He tried to alter life insurance policies. My point is there is an observable and detectable Death Ritual all seem to follow. But PC may prevent this from being done. Most actions would not have anything to do with gun control so I don't believe there would be much political support to use such a process.

[davidbfpo]

Slap and Outlaw09,

Perhaps this short Scientific American article can help: 'The Science of Mass Shooters: What Drives a Person to Kill? (sub-title) There is no template for the path to violence and rarely can a single cause explain any one atrocity':http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-science-of-mass-shooters-what-drives-a-person-to-kill/?

It is a quick resume of some research and cites Professor Mia Bloom in particular:

We need to get rid of the bystander effect..We need to find a way that if someone says they are planning to do something, that there are safe mechanisms for the individual to report without themselves becoming a suspect or a person of interest. We need to come up with a way of separating the wheat from the chaff as far as people who are serious.

I note the actions are a mixture of personal, institutional and state surveillance of online activity. Sadly IMHO it would overwhelm law enforcement and intelligence with too much data, let alone "false flags". Plus IF mental health is the focus is that is politically acceptable.

[davidbfpo]

I spotted this article via Twitter and it's application is general to US society, not just these murders:https://warisboring.com/what-on-kill...0f1#.6hssdabyf

It starts with:

Dave Grossman’s 1996 book On Killing is a landmark and studied account of how — and why — human beings have inhibitions toward killing others, and how the U.S. military turned its soldiers into far more lethal killers with intense conditioning following World War II.In an updated edition, he warns that these same psychological inhibitions are eroding within American society, but with fewer safeguards, allowing sociopathic tendencies to arise and enable mass violence.


(Later the author asks) But the question we need to ask is, What makes today’s children bring those guns to school when their parents did not? And the answer to that question may be that the important ingredient, the vital, new, different ingredient in killing in modern combat and in killing in modern American society, is the systematic process of defeating the normal individual’s age-old, psychological inhibition against violent, harmful activity toward one’s own species. Are we taking the safety catch off of a nation, just as surely and easily as we would take the safety catch off of a gun, and with the same results?

A UK academic psychologist offers a viewpoint:https://theconversation.com/can-we-predict-who-will-become-mass-shooters-60969?

[AdamG]

I would suggest posts #33 & 34 above be cloned into the ISIS Savagery thread (or whatever Dave the cop decides to call it).

The Venn Diagram overlap between psychokiller and ISIS Muj are trending towards 95%+.

[davidbfpo]

Thanks Adam G,

I have copied the two posts to the thread The Management of Savagery:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21675

I would suggest posts #33 & 34 above be cloned into the ISIS Savagery thread (or whatever Dave the cop decides to call it).

The Venn Diagram overlap between psychokiller and ISIS Muj are trending towards 95%+.

Sadly the overlap maybe all too accurate. What is perplexing me, is do the lone wolves have those traits before encountering ISIS? Secondly, will the savagery repel "ordinary" people? Alongside being terrorised.

[davidbfpo]

From The Soufan Group:

Bottom Line Up Front: • A September 26 shooting in Houston, TX, that left 9 wounded and the shooter dead is just the latest in a surge of active shooter situations.
• Three days earlier, a man killed five people in a Burlington, WA, mall with a rifle, forcing an evacuation and calls to shelter in place.
• Law enforcement procedures for active shooters were altered in the wake of the Columbine High School shooting to reflect the urgent need to neutralize the threat as quickly as possible.
• With the confusion inherent in any report of shots fired—coupled with a country on edge over terrorism—active shooters present a massive challenge for law enforcement.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...tive-shooters/

[davidbfpo]

There have been mass shootings all to often since the last post in September 2016; some may have appeared on the Terrorism in the USA thread. Just checked there was no Forum post on the Las Vegas shooting of six hundred people.

Following the Texas church shooting I read a number of articles and this one stuck in my mind as a useful source of information - partly due to clear graphics. Secondly it takes a public health approach.

The Key would not copy for the below maps; situation in 1991 (left) and today (right). Red for Allowed and grey Not Allowed.



Link:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/06/opinion/how-to-reduce-shootings.html?

This thread did have 8,458 views just over a year ago and today has had 42,869 views - another indicator of use to readers, even if no discussion has ensued.

[AdamG]

The wife of Orlando nightclub shooter Omar Mateen told the FBI in the hours after the 2016 massacre that she knew he was plotting "to do something bad" and that he revealed, "This is my target," according to a new court document.
The 12-page statement that authorities say Noor Salman gave was released late last month as part of the case against her. Federal prosecutors initially said during a hearing early last year that Salman had known ahead of time about Mateen's plans and even helped him to scout Pulse, a popular gay nightclub, as the location for his rampage.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/or...tement-n835221

[davidbfpo]

A good article after this week's shooting in Florida:

merging these disparate pieces of data together to fuel a global, real-time threat screener that can be applied to the population at large will remain impossible for all practical purposes

Link:http://www.defenseone.com/business/2...redict/118279/

Now it does not help when the FBI get a citizen's call and appear to have dismissed it as a credible pointer.