This is the best explainer yet of why arguing "they'll back down - it's in their interests" is likely to be wrong https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...lf-immigration …
Imagining that Britain’s European partners will produce concessions to facilitate a U-turn is wishful thinking – the EU is too weak and too rattled by populist forces to be able to make that kind of manoeuvre without setting itself on a course to self-destruction. The EU will prefer to ensure its own survival as a project rather than risk suicide by handing Britain unprecedented exemptions from its founding principles, such as freedom of movement
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