Russo-Ukraine War 2016 (July-September)

[OUTLAW 09]

Not so subtle Russian cyber threat to the Ukrainian power grids...which has happened once in the last four months.....

Drohung mit Cyberangriff? RU-Staatssender prophezeit totalen Stromausfall in UA wegen "Kohlemangel", via @goshquiet http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mi...42018-fpi4.htm …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian parties are on again tonight........

22:27 #Makiivka #Gvardeyka @vuiko65 private housing area: metal chatters after the salvos , I don't know where it goes, not less than 152mm

22:24 #Horlivka @Miloviz Artillery joins from the direction #block5 - oak grove

Donetsk now
Heavy outgoing and also some incoming fire.

22:18 #Horlivka
Last night will be repeated. In Zaytsevo-Mayorsk area battle with small arms and mortars.
https://twitter.com/_GivNeyt_/status/750046246748979201 …

22:17 #Horlivka @thunderbolt1488 #Zhovanka: shooting combat with mortars and machine guns

22:15 NW #Horlivka @thunderbolt1488 it sounds loud

22:11 #Donetsk @TaylerRid The secnd round started. In short, the evening began

22:10 @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
#Makiivka #Vostochnyi: single booms, NW
#Donetsk #Mariupol fork: one can hear strong landings, like further south

22:08 #Donetsk #Tekstilschik @peace_Donetsk listening to booming from all sides

22:07 #Donetsk @relictDon Noisy from the directions of #Azotnyi, #Hirnyak, #Lidiivka

22:07 #Starobesheve @GirkinGirkin It booms

22:06 #Donetsk @PVB40 [fb] #Avtomagazine is shocked, we got out of a habit! Heavy salvos, D-30 or like that

22:06 #Donetsk #Tekstilschik @BylByleva [vk] salvos and landings at once

22:06 #Donetsk @PVB40 Wow, for the last couple of minutes it rumbles strongly

22:05 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] #Gladkovka: Noisy. Incomings are heard. And something heavy [=outgoings]

22:04 #Donetsk @DonetskiYa #Oktyabr: heavy weapons work

22:01 #Donetsk @BylByleva The west booms, heavies

22:00 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] far booms

21:56 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Meanwhile in the area of #Zaytseve-#Mayorsk firing continues

21:45 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] they ceased a bit

21:30 #Donetsk #Gladkovka @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru] listening to skirmishes in #airport and #Yasynuvata CP dir'ns, and periodic booms

21:24 [#Taramchuk area] @manbad2017 #Marinka makes noise bit at time

21:05 #Donetsk @axilles666 #Marinka-#Trudovski: intensity doesn't descrease, tank is shelling...

21:03 #Horlivka @gipsogolovij RU ceased

Three Ukrainian soldiers killed, 13 wounded in Donbas in last day
http://www.unian.info/war/1401555-th...-last-day.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo #Brexit: pro-Kremlin media is burying the EU. Latest #DisinfoReview out now:
http://eepurl.com/b8DZc9 .

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia reportedly plans deployment of new #radar stations on the #Baltic & #Black Sea coasts, incl in #Crimea:

http://www.rbc.ru/politics/05/07/201...4d10?from=main …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia reportedly plans deployment of new #radar stations on the #Baltic & #Black Sea coasts, incl in #Crimea:

http://www.rbc.ru/politics/05/07/201...4d10?from=main …

"Why countries are not rushing to join #Putin's union":
https://euobserver.com/opinion/133574

Russian Official Invites Marine Le Pen To Visit Occupied Crimea
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-869/#14460

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian and mercenary party is on again tonight.....

17:52 #Donetsk #ploschadka1 @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Litesning to heavy ones, hard to get in the N[=Yasynuvata/Avdiivka] or NW[=Spartak/Pisky]

18:15 #Yasynuvata @rjpthjuljytwr [fb?] It booms, evening warm-up has begun [=salvos or/and explosions are heard]

19:56 #Horlivka @thunderbolt1488 [Loud] evening begins

[OUTLAW 09]

Trump's foreign policy advisor is in Moscow. He thinks Euromaidan was a CIA coup and Ukraine is a Russian province: http://www.interpretermag.com/russia...?pressId=14461 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Numbers-Stations.com @Spy_Stations
New Article: Russian Military in Kaliningrad
http://www.numbers-stations.com/arti...n-kaliningrad/ …

[Azor]

I've long argued that Putin is far more likely to attack Belarus or Kazakhstan than the Baltics, as the former two are:

• Not protected by any major and/or nuclear-armed powers
• Hold more "resources" for Russia than the Baltics (i.e. human and commodity)
• Regarded as much part of Russia historic "buffer zone", "privileged sphere of interest" or "near abroad" as Ukraine
• Exhibiting tensions towards the "Russian World" i.e. distancing themselves from Moscow and Russian language and culture

Here is the latest from Jamestown: Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus

"Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is worried about both at the same time, something that makes it difficult for Minsk to cope because the challenges posed by the one and those posed by the other are quite different. Moreover, the policies that might be most useful to block one could, in some circumstances, have the effect of making the latter more likely. This is especially true because one outside power—Vladimir Putin’s Russia—is interested in making use of both in pursuit of Moscow’s ends..."

[OUTLAW 09]

I've long argued that Putin is far more likely to attack Belarus or Kazakhstan than the Baltics, as the former two are:

• Not protected by any major and/or nuclear-armed powers
• Hold more "resources" for Russia than the Baltics (i.e. human and commodity)
• Regarded as much part of Russia historic "buffer zone", "privileged sphere of interest" or "near abroad" as Ukraine
• Exhibiting tensions towards the "Russian World" i.e. distancing themselves from Moscow and Russian language and culture

Here is the latest from Jamestown: Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus

"Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is worried about both at the same time, something that makes it difficult for Minsk to cope because the challenges posed by the one and those posed by the other are quite different. Moreover, the policies that might be most useful to block one could, in some circumstances, have the effect of making the latter more likely. This is especially true because one outside power—Vladimir Putin’s Russia—is interested in making use of both in pursuit of Moscow’s ends..."

Russia has no need to further "threaten" Belarus as they have all they need to do that already stationed inside Belarus ........and as Crimea has shown they can beef up those bases and Belarus cannot really say anything especially since Belarus is a member of CIS as well......

Based on the Russian statements that they perceived the NATO actions in the Baltics to be militarily provocative they are following their Cold War Warsaw Pact strategy of building a second line of defense.

Just as the Soviet Army was forward based inside the GDR it had far fewer troops in Czechoslovakia but built a second line of defense by basing more troops in say Poland and next to the Czechoslovakian border in order to stop a "perceived NATO ground attack"

Yes Belarus can feel a "perceived" Russian military threat by these new troop basing's....IMHO it is a second line of defense against a "perceived NATO military threat coming from the Baltics'.

So Putin wins twice...he "threatens Belarus" and defends against NATO in one single move.

BUT.......

This is Why @NATO Needs to be Worried About Russia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...putin-and-nato …

BUT........

Putin is rapidly reaching his decision point of "guns or butter" as he cannot afford any further "both"........I had said back after Crimea and shortly after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine he would soon reach that point and it is now literally in front of his nose....that is why he is suddenly "playing nice" before the NATO Warsaw Summit by "lowering tensions in the Baltics" by turning on his "transponders"......begs the question if he turned them on...WHO turned them off?????

Russia Is Very Quickly Running Out Of Cash
https://lnkd.in/e5XaKxN

[OUTLAW 09]

Mark Galeotti: Russia's Slow and Hesitant 'Purges' Mask Policy Void ... The Moscow Times
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...id/574318.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Vasil Slipak's killer (Russian trained mercenary sniper) has been eliminated by a #Ukrainian sniper
http://goo.gl/Rjve09

Canadian military trainers find they can also learn much from Ukraine's experience of Russian hybrid war tactics
http://bunews.com.ua/component/zoo/i...sts?Itemid=101 …

Ukrainian Colonel freed after 2 yrs of militant captivity
http://www.unian.info/society/140288...captivity.html …

Should have been released on a all basis right after Minsk 2 was signed but the Russian mercenaries refused to follow....

[OUTLAW 09]

"The belief is that missile defense is just cover, that bases are there for a first strike intended to kill Putin."
http://bloom.bg/29hrviC

[OUTLAW 09]

U.S. public broadcaster @NewsHour surprisingly (?) humanizes pro-Rus terrorists in report from occup. east. #Ukraine
http://to.pbs.org/29pQt1I

Two Ukrainian soldiers killed, 10 wounded in Donbas in last day
http://www.unian.info/war/1403518-tw...day.html<br /> …

#Ukraine plans alternative route after Russia imposed transit ban yesterday
http://upi.com/6353187t

Record number of illegal arms from Donbas found at premises of Dnipro-1 Regiment
http://www.unian.info/society/140321...-regiment.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

New report on cross-border attacks comes as another proof of #Russia ' s war in #Ukraine
http://uatoday.tv/society/new-report...ne-688649.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

ATO spox: Militant casualties: 8 KIA, 9 WIA from three proxy units
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-july-...wia-from-three …

Ukr military engineers de-activated 451 IEDs over last week.
116,782 demined during ATO
pic.twitter.com/MXrvdZLBNk
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-july-...rs-deactivated …

SBU uncovered a large arms cache in Maryinka area:artillery projectiles, mines,explosives
pic.twitter.com/iglGPwM2iZ
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-july-...he-in-maryinka …

FAZ having a story on how Head of Czech Radio cooperated with pro-Kremlin disinformators:
http://goo.gl/ykgd9O

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia has no need to further "threaten" Belarus as they have all they need to do that already stationed inside Belarus ........and as Crimea has shown they can beef up those bases and Belarus cannot really say anything especially since Belarus is a member of CIS as well......

Based on the Russian statements that they perceived the NATO actions in the Baltics to be militarily provocative they are following their Cold War Warsaw Pact strategy of building a second line of defense.

Just as the Soviet Army was forward based inside the GDR it had far fewer troops in Czechoslovakia but built a second line of defense by basing more troops in say Poland and next to the Czechoslovakian border in order to stop a "perceived NATO ground attack"

Yes Belarus can feel a "perceived" Russian military threat by these new troop basing's....IMHO it is a second line of defense against a "perceived NATO military threat coming from the Baltics'.

So Putin wins twice...he "threatens Belarus" and defends against NATO in one single move.

BUT.......

This is Why @NATO Needs to be Worried About Russia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...putin-and-nato …

BUT........

Putin is rapidly reaching his decision point of "guns or butter" as he cannot afford any further "both"........I had said back after Crimea and shortly after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine he would soon reach that point and it is now literally in front of his nose....that is why he is suddenly "playing nice" before the NATO Warsaw Summit by "lowering tensions in the Baltics" by turning on his "transponders"......begs the question if he turned them on...WHO turned them off?????

Russia Is Very Quickly Running Out Of Cash
https://lnkd.in/e5XaKxN

Russia won't ask #Belarus for permission to attack #Ukraine-ex-envoy (Belsat interview,vid)
http://belsat.eu/en/news/ex-envoy-be...ttack-ukraine/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

A Russian serviceman from the 18th Motorized Infantry Brigade seen fighting in eastern Ukraine, and back on base. https://twitter.com/askai707/status/750695546629783552 …

The Russian MFA thinks Kyiv is preparing a new operation in the East Ukraine
Idiots...
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-july-...-new-operation …

SBU detained "anti-fascist" from Russian militants gang "Vostok" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki0qOP4HYtA … pic.twitter.com/WSVGvNYnqF http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/6-july-...militants-gang …

[OUTLAW 09]

OSCE: Three children killed in grenade blast in militant-occupied Yenakiieve
http://www.unian.info/war/1404212-os...enakiieve.html …

[Azor]

Putin's July 4th message:

CNN: ..."The history of Russian-American relations shows that when we act as equal partners and respect each other's lawful interests, we are able to successfully resolve the most complex international issues for the benefit of both countries' peoples and all of humanity," Putin wrote, according to the Russian readout. The Kremlin said Putin suggested past work between the two countries would "help to set the dialogue between Russia and the United States back on a constructive track" to address global concerns....

Someone really wants in from the cold...