Oh look, an SVR-approved "think-tank" is pimping Trump's "genius" Russia adviser.
Nothing to see here, folks.
http://katehon.com/node/34124
Russia'n army - 1st army ever to go on vacation with full equipment.
Video of more of Putin's invaders captured near Shyrokyne Ukraine
http://buff.ly/29vLVqV
Albright at #WSEF16 - Putin's worldview is colored by toxic fictions
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...-is-colored-by …
Mercenaries from the 9th Infantry Regiment stated that they were commanded by officers from the regular Russian army https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/...31348925313025 …
Russian Armed Forces TV ("Star"): In the event of war, "the Russian army would completely destroy NATO troops" http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mi...81008-kwb4.htm …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-08-2016 at 10:21 AM.
Oh look, an SVR-approved "think-tank" is pimping Trump's "genius" Russia adviser.
Nothing to see here, folks.
http://katehon.com/node/34124
Kazakhstan calls on Russia to allow transit of Ukrainian goods
http://www.unian.info/economics/1407...ian-goods.html …
Strengthening the role of Europe and Germany in #NATO is becoming more important.
http://ceip.org/29vfb0H
OSCE SMM Ukraine @OSCE_SMM
#OSCE’s Hug: Sharp increase in level of violence last week: No. of explosions tripled compared to previous week, reaching 3000+
Russian party on tonight......
19:32 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Artillery wakes up, single rounds once every 5-10 min
19:35 #Donetsk #railway station @TaylerRid Darkness hasn't fallen yet, and far artillery is already pounding
19:35 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
#Putilovka:"just in fr/the street, #Spartak dir'n is fighting"
"#Shakhtarska can hear it fr/far off"
19:48 #Makiivka @PriestEtlau Booms are heard for more than an hour if you mean #Gvardeyka direction
20:00 #Donetsk #Severnyi @rjpthjuljytwr #Pisky direction is noisy
20:16 #Donetsk #ploschadka1 @rjpthjuljytwr For 5 min so far, they try to shoot UAV down involving heavy and small arms
20:20 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM B attle began in #Zaytseve, one can sometimes hear loud explosions [fr/there]
20:34 #Donetsk @axilles666 #Marinka-#Trudovski: not active but constant shooting at [contact] line
OSCE’s Hug: 373 explosions recorded in Shyrokyne-Kominternove area last week – the highest figure there since last September
In mortar attack near Debaltseve after 6pm wounded 3 Ukrainian soldiers
pic.twitter.com/mvXKs7YDm4
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...er-6pm-wounded …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-08-2016 at 07:09 PM.
LifeNews: Putin asks Merkel and Hollande to influence Poroshenko to stop his provocations.
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...e-to-influence …
Hug:Sides too close to each other:just few100 m between UA AF&“LPR” at Stanytsia Luhanska
pic.twitter.com/IGGFNfBGPn
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...st-few-hundred …
Important: (PRO-)RUSSIANS crossed the #Minsk demarcation line.
Instead of pushing them back,#UKR established new CP.
OSCE’s Hug: along the Svitlodarsk-Debaltseve road 700% increase in no. of ceasefire violations compared to previous week
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-08-2016 at 07:30 PM.
Lukashevich:Unfortunately,Kyiv appears unwilling to implement Minsk & is playing for time
pic.twitter.com/jCxGuy46Yj
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...s-unwilling-to …
SBU found two caches with ammunition in the area of ATO pic.twitter.com/ddYPzXvXyJ
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...in-the-area-of …
Fields on fire near Mariupol
pic.twitter.com/oastE2k9Y2
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...-near-mariupol …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-08-2016 at 07:29 PM.
This is why I've been hesitant to refer to Putin as a chess master as the Western press is wont to do every time he does something surprising:
- The Kremlin has signaled its interest in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union
- No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would accept the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea
- No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would ever allow Belarus or Ukraine to join NATO
- The accession of the Baltic republics and Operation Allied Force were very provocative for Russia, although the West did not comprehend it at the time
Therefore, I do not find Putin's strategic actions very surprising, even if he is tactically creative.
While Bush, Jr. sacrificed all foreign policy objectives in favor of the War on Terror, during Obama's tenure, the following has happened:
- Ukraine (most of it) has firmly joined the Western camp
- Russia no longer has access to Ukraine's important defense industries
- The SVR/GRU is out in Ukraine and Western intelligence is in
- Minsk is tacking westward
- Astana is tacking toward Beijing
- NATO ballistic missile defense continues under a new acronym
- Instead of causing trouble in the Middle East (Egypt) or Central Asia, Moscow is busy assisting clients and partners in Ukraine and Syria
- Russia's economy is damaged enough to defer the 2020 modernization plan without the need for an arms race
Not bad for a community organizer and speechwriter duo, no?
I interpreted this as a warning against Russian incursions into NATO airspace by Tu-95s, etc. Basically, I understood that whereas before SACEUR would instruct Polish or Danish air defenses to await orders before firing, now local commanders can shoot down stray Russian aircraft if they feel threatened...
According to CSIS, it is reasonable to assume that a NATO BMD system based in East-Central Europe could whittle down Russia's second strike capability.
I am all for deploying advanced air defense systems to East-Central Europe in order to establish a NATO A2/AD zone, but I question the wisdom of NATO BMD/EPAA. If Iran is the threat, then why not establish the system in Turkey, Israel or in the Gulf States? Moreover, one would be hard pressed to explain how Iran has the intent, let alone the capability to conduct significant strikes on European NATO members. Lastly, isn't Aegis "afloat" enough?
Russia's increase is more posturing than anything else, especially given the woeful state of their SLBM deterrent, and Russia does not actually have to reach the limits until 2018, if I recall.
This happened in 1991 during the relatively bloodless August Coup. But by 1993, Russians accepted when Yeltsin used tanks against parliament and killed 200 to 2000 people and then later launched a disastrous and bloody war in Chechnya. Many Russians think that Putin doesn't go far enough in fact, so I would be cautious about advocating his ouster.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
It is there to reassure Poland and the Baltics that US and allied lives are on the line as well.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I gather that these forces were intended to tie down the cumbersome Soviet columns at chokepoints and in built-up areas, particularly the Berlin Brigade.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I expect that in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic republics, that NATO forces there will be ordered to conduct asymmetric warfare and FIBA, while NATO uses stand-off weapons to destroy Russian formations in the open and deny any Russian surge across the border. I don't think NATO would risk the barrage of cross-border fire that would result from an amphibious assault as well as the escalation risks of silencing Russian firing positions on Russian soil.
I would imagine that cut-off and harassed by enemy soldiers, the Russians would eventually sue for peace, withdraw and only then would NATO reinforcements land in the Baltics.
22:47 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ During the last few hours, strained situation in the area of #Zaytseve-#Mayorsk. As of now, artillery salvos& AGL
22:22 #Donetsk #Petrovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Singles boom and "powerful" bursts of small arms
22:28 #Mariupol @iMariupol Behind #Vynohradne closer to #Sopyne [=east fr/M http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...76239&z=12&m=b …]
a UAV is flying
Russian forces transfer falsified data to the OSCE - intelligence http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...ta-to-the-osce …
https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/...53598173761536
Francois Hollande: "NATO has no role at all to be saying what Europe’s relations with Russia should be. For France, Russia is not an adversary, not a threat. Russia is a partner which, it is true, may sometimes, and we have seen that in Ukraine, use force which we have condemned when it annexed Crimea."
The head of NATO's military committee, Czech General Petr Pavel, tried to bridge the differences: "We must accept that Russia can be a competitor, adversary, peer or partner and probably all four at the same time."
And apparently, a cyber-attack can trigger an Article V response...
Last edited by Azor; 07-08-2016 at 10:10 PM.
So you ascribe the so called list of successes of the Obama/Rhodes WH to what exactly;
1. chaos theories or
2. game theories which is what the former Greek Finance Minister ascribed to when he was dealing with his demands for 300B from the EU and end the end he lost his "game theory".
You do realize that if one waits long enough and something positive happens then history is so written then to make it appear that is was a well thought out FP.
That does not substitute for a total lack of any FP other then one based on "accidental developments".
The Ukraine is far from over and all he is trying to do is get the heck out of Dodge with "something" for his legacy...thus the Kerry statements we might be able to get something before he leaves office..."never quite defining" exactly what that "something looks like".....
Syria and the ME is just starting to get interesting and then he throws it over the fence for the next President...
This is what though one has to watch....the internal "narrative" that Russian info warriors use on their own public as that is the one that ascribes to Putin's mindset...remember Putin has "two narratives" one that he continuously uses to sell the West on that "it's your fault for all of the Ukrainian and Syrian messes" AND the other to his public of we are right and correct in what we are doing and we are being punished for wanting to be a "great and strong' Russia......and it is our right to be a "superpower" as the world has been led to long by the unipolar superpower...the US...
Huge lies in #Russia's press pretending Russia has 0 troops in #Kaliningrad & only 30,000 in Western Milt. District
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/751619916726308864 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-09-2016 at 05:02 AM.
BTW....the ability of the MD system does not have the range in order to hit any Russian ICBM first strike abilities nor the potential follow on ICBM threats.
Even coupled to THADD the current Ageis and Patriot PAC-3s and coupled to the Israeli MD systems simply do not have the intercept ranges needed the last time I worked with them....as they are an inbound protection system not one designed to hit on launch....
A simple fact that Putin keeps overlooking as it does not tie into his "narrative" he feeds the West and his own public.....
Azor...my concern is that a large number of these Russian info warfare "narratives" get picked up by US and western MSM and go largely unchecked or challenged.....and yes even within some so call respected MSM...
There use to be a deep Russian analysis academic ability but who studies Russian as a language anymore...I can count on three fingers individuals who I would call true Russian "analysts"....both linguistic, military and political analysts......that I would listen to and they do not sit in think tanks, and or the Obama/Rhodes WH....
Same BTW goes for Syria.
AND that much vaulted US Intel Community.....worthless when it came to Crimea.....they did not even see it comin down the highway straight at them....if it had looked like a battleship.....
Heck they cannot even state with any certainly who drops thermobaric, incendiary and cluster munitions in Syria....
Latest in Trump-Putin bromance: Trump adviser gives rambling talk in Moscow, castigates US, evades Qs https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...advisor-russia
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
If you watched "Fault Lines" and noticed deliberately incorrect translation & pro-Kremlin leanings, let PBS know!
https://twitter.com/tufkaa/status/751612314449809408 …
Azor..check the PBS "narrative" about events in eastern Ukraine and then tell they have not taken the Russian "bait" full line and sinker......
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
PBS—Fault Lines—summed up:
Poor Russia is encircled by NATO.
Ukraine was the last straw.
Cossacks who can barely ride want to restore USSR.
So some strange reason PBS does not fully understand the use of the Cossacks by the Putin regime....as part of their military and internal FP....
Jesus. @NewsHour final "Fault Line" segment an embarrassment of DC Kremlin apologists, historical Cossack fiction...
"Cossack renaissance"—glorifying Russian paid mercenaries in Ukraine.
Don't believe fighting has escalated in eastern Ukraine in past weeks? Have a look at latest @OSCE_SMM reports.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-09-2016 at 05:36 AM.
NATO "light humor".......
Kremlin condemns NATO's plan to deploy 1% of the amount of troops involved in average Russian snap drill to Poland
BTW...in Russian "snap drills just this year involved over 130,000 active duty Russian mainline troops....on the NATO side for the full year of exercises a total of 30,000......and a large number of these were Reservists....
Full combat across the entire Minsk 2 front line....with intense artillery strikes and Russian led ground probes.....
72 ceasefire violations at Donbas on July 8
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-july-...nbas-on-july-8 …
pic.twitter.com/UZlqtwGIxQ
Increase of attacks no.: combined Rus-militant troops fired 72 times upon Ukr troops over last day (56 the day b4) - ATO press center
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-09-2016 at 07:15 AM.
More indications that the Russian economy is barely limping along...question is for how long.....????
They cannot even get their recent international bond sales registered further placing their last sovereign offer in question.....if Euroclear is questioning that is serious as they normally register all sovereign bond sales....
Russia's 10-year t-bonds have yet to be admitted for transactions by #Euroclear, according to ING report:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/ar...umag-euroclear …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-09-2016 at 07:20 AM.
Historiian: Crimea Followed a 1940 Soviet coup in Estonia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfzB...&feature=share …
"My life as a pro-Putin propagandist in Russia’s secret 'troll factory'"
http://educate-yourself.org/cn/Life-at-
I posted some of this last year and it is good to go back and review about Russian internet troll activities.....and it has gotten far better in the last year.....
Russian Spetsnaz is always on the move.....even in so called "peace times"....remember most of the Polish and Soviet long hauler truckers travelling in Europe doing the Cold War were also GRU Spetsnaz recon officers and KGB officers on espionage/sabotage planning missions or Polish SB and or Polish Spetsnaz officers......
A Russian rented a boat from Norway, ran it aground near Scotland. Authorities found sabotage instructions on board. https://twitter.com/Bolle_dok/status/751111107935367168 …
1 Ukrainian boarder guard wounded on Mariinka checkpoint due to shellings of Russians.
https://twitter.com/UKRINFORM/status/751673808973619200 …
NATO sent a clear message in Warsaw: Russian troops still present in Donbas. Who would know that better than NATO?
Fragile ceasefire on Ukraine’s frontline
http://www.euronews.com/2016/07/08/f...bxFcHY.twitter …
Here comes the Obama/Rhodes "sellout of the Ukraine" by pushing them to implement elections in eastern Ukraine without a single reciprocal mve by Russia.....
Obama pushing for resolution of conflict in east Ukraine reports @carolelee @julianbarnes
http://on.wsj.com/29usTAl
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