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Thread: Russo-Ukraine War 2016 (July-September)

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Outlaw 09 may agree with many Germans on the value of the European Union , but Germans clearly disagree with him on the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Despite the pressure that Merkel has put on European cohesion with her disastrous border and migration policies, it is difficult to imagine her successor taking a harder line with Russia. Many German leaders, Steinmeier included, would love for the Ukrainian issue to just go away so that they can expand Nord Stream and go back to business as usual.

    See here from Der Spiegel: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...578-druck.html

    Below are the juicy excerpts:



    Are we to assume that a country that has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, which openly talks about using them even in limited conflicts, which openly talks about targeting non-nuclear NATO member states, and which has conducted more than one simulated nuclear strike on a neighbor is not more of a threat than a terrorist group mostly contained in the Middle East?

    The concept of total war was not invented by Goebbels and pre-dates World War II. Larsen could just as easily be referring to a whole-of-government approach, which would be required to counter hybrid warfare. According to Wiegrefe then, NATO is rife with hawks and Fascists...



    Firstly, an open-source back-of-the-envelope analysis from ten years ago regarding the US benefiting from the Russian strategic C4ISR being in shambles has naught to do with NATO-Russian relations today. Secondly, Prompt Global Strike has not gone far since its initial conception, and the United States, Russia and especially China are all working on hypersonic glide vehicles.



    NATO is not seeking to achieve local superiority, let alone supremacy, in the Baltic region, especially given that the affected countries border Russia's Western Military District. However, it is incumbent on NATO to ensure that: (a) a "hybrid" or less-than-Article V conflict in the Baltics is unattractive to Russia; and (b) that the Baltic republics feel assured that NATO will defend them as much as say Germany.
    Azor....you bring up a number of interesting points concerning the German split personality ..........

    Remember the German "baby boomer" generation post 1968 was raised to hate and loathe war and BTW a number of those born in say 1933-37 were old enough to remember spending their nights in bomb shelters and the march of the Soviet Army into Berlin based on their parents Nazi history and that expressed itself in the German student movement SDS.....which was a generational break with their own parents and with the German society as a whole up to 1968....ie in German universities in the 60s male students had to wear a tie and literally had to bow down to the Professors...a hangover from the 30s....

    Coupled with a hefty anti VN war movement as I do remember their marches down the Ku-dam by the thousands waving NLF and VC flags chanting Ho, Ho, Ho chi-Minh...until they ran into the water cannons of the riot police.

    That same student movement turned then into a general anti war anti military movement in the 80s with their Stop the Bomb railroad demos when the US was shipping bombs from Bremerhaven to the USAF bases and then it was against the stationing of the US cruise missiles...BUT when the Wall came down so died at the same time this energized student and baby boomer generation. This coupled at the same time with a strong anti nuclear power plant movement which led to a massive riot that was fought literally in a forest with thousands of demonstrators and an equal number of riot police.

    Now jump forward and you have a complete new generation in their 30-40s that is politically unmotivated about anything outside of earning money and enjoying life in general.

    Then along comes an existential threat which they cannot comprehend as they are not from the Cold War days and their inherent lack to get motivated politically about anything.

    Except Pocomon Go where they will have a demo to demand it be released in Germany led by over 2000 teenagers....

    Right now many of those that I know that are still politically active openly complain about the total lack of German interest in anything political...

    NOW jump into the current German politics and you will notice that those that want to move back to business as usual are from the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) and those in that party in their 40-60s....driven by what I call simply greed. Remember the SPD is basically a tad to the left and had a close socialist/communist past thus an inherent affinity for Russia.

    The former SPD leader Schroeder has made a ton of money by being named by the Russians to the Nordstream 1 board and their FM is a lackluster politician not well liked by Merkel as he states things that often have not been cleared by her ie his recent critique of NATO as a "warmonger sable rattling organization..

    Right now the SPD has in polling slipped under 21% and for a party that polled in the 40-50% in the Cold War days...that is a major loss.

    And based on the recent federal elections and with the increased number of populist parties polling in the 12-15% ranges you are seeing the SPD slip badly into 3rd and or 4th position with the newly elected governments being Centrist to Green or what they call Black Green governments.

    Merkel and her CDU has though starting polling upwards in a strong move as the public now is seeing her as a stability factor and as they have become more open to the refugee issues.

    Part of the refugee problem was that the numbers initially overwhelmed the government and they had no messaging and narrative e for the public to accommodate the sheer numbers...since then the government has caught up, has a solid integration program in place and is controlling tighter and tighter and thus the confidence of the public increases...

    Notice the comments made by Merkel during the Warsaw Summit....some of the strongest ever made by a German leader against Putin...BTW not even matched by Obama.

    The Russian sanctions will hold in the EU as long as Merkel holds the line as the EU knows who the EU paymaster is...thus the drive by the SPD to try to do workarounds ie the new NordStream......

    BTW....recent polling as late as last week clearly shows over 54% of Germans are now naming Russia as a serious threat to Germany.....up from say about 14% during Crimea...and remember Russia has now made Germany a prime info warfare target as it has a large Russian community and a large Russian mafia community.....and the FSB has been working Germany hard since 1991.

    That increase is due namely to the constant reporting by the German MSM newspaper BILD which is about the only one carry a constant stream of reporting on both eastern Ukraine and Syria and the Russian actions in both those locations.

    BILD recently received a ruffle by the German Press Institute for supposedly false reporting and then BILD blasted back with photo after photo and totally fact checked articles and the Agency went totally silent...and BILD is correcting and calling out the mistakes made often by the German national news channels....earning them the direct Russian info warfare directed by RT and TASS....

    So all in all do not write off the German public as not wanting to do anything except "business as usual"...they have indeed caught the curve...it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years...especially as they slowly rearm and rebuild their military to match the now perceived Russian threat.

    BUT one thing is a given for sure...with the exit of the UK from the EU...the next US President will be forced to work ever closer with Germany something that did not happen under the Obama/Rhodes WH....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 06:32 AM.

  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    To be fair, Outlaw has been on this since Minsk I...

    According to Vladimir Socor at the Jamestown Foundation:

    1. http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...c#.V4QgWlYrKUk
    2. http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...4#.V4QgXFYrKUk



    • “Quietly but summarily, the administration of President Obama has informed Kyiv that it wants to see elections in Donbas before Obama leaves office”
    • Nuland is urging compliance with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.”
    • Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States
    • By the logic and sequence of steps proposed, Ukraine would make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not.
    • The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia.
    Azor...BTW...a solid catch on info....as this closes and explains why there was a sudden rash of "hardcore statements" made by the Ukrainian President and his FM during the NATO Warsaw Summit on what has to be done before elections can be held in eastern Ukraine along with a security implementation plan for the occupied zone...

    Which you know Russia will reject as it does not fit their "political demands".

    THEN surprise, surprise Merkel issued a series of strong statements against the current overall Russian activities in central Europe and why the sanctions are and will be in place until there is a complete ceasefire and Russia starts to implement truly Minsk 2.

    Basically she backed fully the Ukrainian position and notice it was made by her not her FM who basically uttered not a single statement during the Summit especially after his NATO "hit job"......

    Merkel has something going for her that no US President has...she grew up in the former GDR, she speaks fluent Russian and fully understands Putin's mindset.....

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor....you bring up a number of interesting points concerning the German split personality ..........

    Remember the German "baby boomer" generation post 1968 was raised to hate and loathe war and BTW a number of those born in say 1933-37 were old enough to remember spending their nights in bomb shelters and the march of the Soviet Army into Berlin based on their parents Nazi history and that expressed itself in the German student movement SDS.....which was a generational break with their own parents and with the German society as a whole up to 1968....ie in German universities in the 60s male students had to wear a tie and literally had to bow down to the Professors...a hangover from the 30s....

    Coupled with a hefty anti VN war movement as I do remember their marches down the Ku-dam by the thousands waving NLF and VC flags chanting Ho, Ho, Ho chi-Minh...until they ran into the water cannons of the riot police.

    That same student movement turned then into a general anti war anti military movement in the 80s with their Stop the Bomb railroad demos when the US was shipping bombs from Bremerhaven to the USAF bases and then it was against the stationing of the US cruise missiles...BUT when the Wall came down so died at the same time this energized student and baby boomer generation. This coupled at the same time with a strong anti nuclear power plant movement which led to a massive riot that was fought literally in a forest with thousands of demonstrators and an equal number of riot police.

    Now jump forward and you have a complete new generation in their 30-40s that is politically unmotivated about anything outside of earning money and enjoying life in general.

    Then along comes an existential threat which they cannot comprehend as they are not from the Cold War days and their inherent lack to get motivated politically about anything.

    Except Pocomon Go where they will have a demo to demand it be released in Germany led by over 2000 teenagers....

    Right now many of those that I know that are still politically active openly complain about the total lack of German interest in anything political...

    NOW jump into the current German politics and you will notice that those that want to move back to business as usual are from the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) and those in that party in their 40-60s....driven by what I call simply greed. Remember the SPD is basically a tad to the left and had a close socialist/communist past thus an inherent affinity for Russia.

    The former SPD leader Schroeder has made a ton of money by being named by the Russians to the Nordstream 1 board and their FM is a lackluster politician not well liked by Merkel as he states things that often have not been cleared by her ie his recent critique of NATO as a "warmonger sable rattling organization..

    Right now the SPD has in polling slipped under 21% and for a party that polled in the 40-50% in the Cold War days...that is a major loss.

    And based on the recent federal elections and with the increased number of populist parties polling in the 12-15% ranges you are seeing the SPD slip badly into 3rd and or 4th position with the newly elected governments being Centrist to Green or what they call Black Green governments.

    Merkel and her CDU has though starting polling upwards in a strong move as the public now is seeing her as a stability factor and as they have become more open to the refugee issues.

    Part of the refugee problem was that the numbers initially overwhelmed the government and they had no messaging and narrative e for the public to accommodate the sheer numbers...since then the government has caught up, has a solid integration program in place and is controlling tighter and tighter and thus the confidence of the public increases...

    Notice the comments made by Merkel during the Warsaw Summit....some of the strongest ever made by a German leader against Putin...BTW not even matched by Obama.

    The Russian sanctions will hold in the EU as long as Merkel holds the line as the EU knows who the EU paymaster is...thus the drive by the SPD to try to do workarounds ie the new NordStream......

    BTW....recent polling as late as last week clearly shows over 54% of Germans are now naming Russia as a serious threat to Germany.....up from say about 14% during Crimea...and remember Russia has now made Germany a prime info warfare target as it has a large Russian community and a large Russian mafia community.....and the FSB has been working Germany hard since 1991.

    That increase is due namely to the constant reporting by the German MSM newspaper BILD which is about the only one carry a constant stream of reporting on both eastern Ukraine and Syria and the Russian actions in both those locations.

    BILD recently received a ruffle by the German Press Institute for supposedly false reporting and then BILD blasted back with photo after photo and totally fact checked articles and the Agency went totally silent...and BILD is correcting and calling out the mistakes made often by the German national news channels....earning them the direct Russian info warfare directed by RT and TASS....

    So all in all do not write off the German public as not wanting to do anything except "business as usual"...they have indeed caught the curve...it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years...especially as they slowly rearm and rebuild their military to match the now perceived Russian threat.

    BUT one thing is a given for sure...with the exit of the UK from the EU...the next US President will be forced to work ever closer with Germany something that did not happen under the Obama/Rhodes WH....
    Azor...an example on just how BILD is driving their reporting on both eastern Ukraine and Syria......they are head and shoulders above NYTs and WaPo.....and it is fact checked and fact checked......and then fact checked....

    Dear journalists & editors of English speaking online news portals around the world.
    @BILD offers you a free article on the siege of #Aleppo

    In some aspects BILD is about the only European MSM that fully reinvented itself after the Wall came down and is being accepted now as a valid German "political newspaper" that comments on current affairs in an open direct manner.

    Azor...this came in this morning....

    Almost 60% of Germans think refugees will make the country stronger because of their work and talents. @pewresearch
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 08:11 AM.

  4. #184
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    Orthodox procession in Ukraine ‘not a road to Kyiv but to Constantinople,’ Portnikov says
    http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/07/1...ortnikov-says/

    Portnikov: Orthodox Procession in Ukraine a message to Constantinople about recognizing Kyiv as canonically separate http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...-not-road.html

    Armed provocations by Ru&proxies are registered daily. Initial security provisions remain unimplemented by Russia https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/s...79936018223104

    Summary of & link to @AricToler 9-part How to Conduct Open-Source Research on the Russian Internet
    https://globalvoices.org/specialcove...sian-internet/

    Investment in Crimean Resorts has Fallen by ‘Order of Magnitude’ Since Occupation Liyev Says
    http://www.interpretermag.com/july-11-2016-2/#14555
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 07:59 AM.

  5. #185
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    Putin Regime Now in Trouble for Seven Reasons, Solovey Says
    http://www.interpretermag.com/july-10-2011/#14556

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    Russian tanks spotted on the way to the Ukrainian border.
    https://informnapalm.org/en/russian-...k-shakhtinsky/

  7. #187
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    Why does Moscow need religious processions in Ukraine?
    http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/07/1...ns-in-ukraine/

    "Summer storm 2016"
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-july-summer-storm-2016
    pic.twitter.com/DOWhhsOAtv

    The #Russia|n "Firehose of Falsehood" #Propaganda Model
    Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It
    http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspective...adbpr=22545453
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 01:57 PM.

  8. #188
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    Tomorrow - last day of ultimatum by DNR chief Zakharchenko to appoint elections date at Donbas.

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    Only 1 Ukrainian soldier was killed and 4 wounded over the last 24 hours
    ...
    "ONLY"!!!
    ...
    Yes, we are down to this.

  10. #190
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    NATO says "there was not a meeting of the minds today" at NATO/RUSSIA COUNCIL on issue of #Ukraine.

    NATO says #Russia proposed risk reduction for air safety and use of transponders in #Baltic region.

    NATO's @jensstoltenberg urges #Russian transparency in aviation to "avoid incidents, accidents and misunderstandings"

    NATO says #Russia used "loopholes" to carry out snap military exercises and NATO wants to revise agreements on this.
    .@jensstoltenberg says #Russia is "using loopholes" in #Vienna agreements on transparency re: eg snap exercises, underming security

    NATO says #Russia briefed them on steps Moscow is taking in response to #NATO actions.

    Russia says rhetoric can't obscure fact that new #NATO battalions in #Baltics and #Poland will be there permanently.

    .@jensstoltenberg reiterates #NATO allies will never accept #Russian annexation of #Crimea

    Russia #NATO rep says Eastern Europe turning into beach head for #NATO military bases.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 05:21 PM.

  11. #191
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    Russian parties are on again tonight....


    19:40 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin [vk?] "30 min ago a man aged over 70 died of a bullet in his garden, #18, #Lomonosova"
    [unconfirmed]

    19:55 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Inactive skirmishes at #Promka and in the #forest, at 19:50 artillery started to work tow/#Yasynuvata

    19:55 #Marinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Fighting becomes more active

    19:59 #Donetsk #railway station @The_Ukrop I can hear rumble closer to #Yasynuvata from afar
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 05:07 PM.

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    youtube.com/watch?v=famuPCzy9YI …
    Church of invaders & collaborators (aka Moscow Patriarchate) v. patriots.

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    Russia plotting offensive operations in Donbas - Turchynov
    http://www.unian.info/war/1415998-ru...turchynov.html

    Russia plotting offensive operations in Donbas - Turchynov Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Turchynov said that the Russian leadership is seeking to completely disrupt the implementation of the Minsk agreements by increasing the number of attacks on Ukrainian forces and boosting operations of its subversive groups in Donbas.

    Turchynov told of Russia’s plans to disrupt the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Turchynov visited the frontline of the Ukrainian defenses in connection with the escalation in the east of Ukraine, according to the press service of the NSDC. As noted in the report, the secretary held a working meeting with the military commanders of the Anti-Terrorist Operation and inspected the combat readiness of the Ukrainian military units in the area of the Ukrainian strategic stronghold at the Azov Sea Mariupol, visited the outposts in Shyrokine and other areas on the southern defensive lines.

    NSDC tells how Russia makes Donbas test ground for new military technologyAccording to Turchynov, the Russian occupation troops of the "1st and 2nd Army Corps" have significantly increased the number of attacks, which “defiantly disregard the agreements on the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line." "The enemy uses 152-mm and 122-mm artillery, 120-millimeter mortars, and MLRS’s banned by the Minsk deal in daily shellings," said the secretary, adding that the activity the of professionally trained sabotage and reconnaissance groups and snipers increased significantly.

    NSDC Secretary stressed that the enemy was spotted setting up specialized mobile mortar groups "specializing in striking the military and civilian targets, firing taking into consideration the patrol routes of the monitoring teams [of the OSCE SMM]."

    Turchynov: Evidence of Russia's war against Ukraine can be found on Putin's website"All those provocative actions lead to more losses among the ATO forces as well as civilian casualties and, according to the Kremlin leadership, are designed to completely disrupt any progress under the Minsk agreements," Turchynov said.

    The highest intensity of enemy fire is recorded at Donetsk and Mariupol directions. According to the NSDC secretary, the occupation forces are being intensively supplied with arms, ammunition, and fuel. Operating reserves are being created. "All of this is confirms that the Russian General Staff is preparing offensive operations," he said, stressing that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to give an adequate response to any provocations by the aggressor.
    Village 24 km from #Ukraine's strategic port city remains hottest spot in #Donbas #war
    http://buff.ly/29v4KXr

    Kremlin loyal ‘observers’ arrive to rubberstamp #Donbas militants breach of #Minsk Accord
    http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1468402986

    A “delegation of foreign observers from Finland and Serbia” has visited the so-called ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ [DNR] as part of an elaborate, if farcical, attempt by the Kremlin-backed militants to bypass the commitments agreed in Minsk for holding local elections. Instead of providing the compliance with the Minsk Accords that would enable the holding of real elections, the militants have blamed Ukraine’s government for preventing them, and is instead planning to hold what it calls ‘preliminary elections’ or ‘primaries’.

    Such ‘primaries’, the militant leader Alexander Zakharchenko claimed back in May 2016, will enable selection of “the worthiest candidates for local elections”. He asserted that those later elections would then be held in accordance with the Minsk Agreement. Such ‘primaries’ are, however in themselves, a breach of that agreement which stipulates that the elections must comply with Ukrainian law, without the militants determining in advance who takes part.

    The May 23 report posted on the DNR news agency website quoted an unnamed source close to Zakharchenko as saying that the decision had been taken after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advisor Vladislav Surkov. He is widely understood to be in charge of dealing with the militants Moscow claims officially to have nothing to do with. Surkov was reported to have approved the plan for ‘primaries’ and intended to recommend them for the ‘Luhansk people’s republic’ [LNR] as well.

    The whole process was presented then as “good training”. Denis Pushilin, another DNR leader and participant in the Minsk talks, claimed that they would elicit “a positive reaction in Russia, the EU and USA” who were supposed to understand that this was a step towards implementation of the Minsk complex of measures.

    Appreciation of such a ‘step’ was, admittedly made unlikely by Zakharchenko’s aggressive rejection of any international armed mission ensuring safety at the elections. He threatened to attack any such mission as “aggression against DNR.

    If you listened to DNR ‘acting foreign minister’ Natalya Nikonorova talking about the ‘primaries’ and the role of the ‘foreign observers’ on July 11, you could be temporarily deceived. It all sounded wonderful, with assurances about “fair, transparent, unbiased coverage of the process”, “equal access”, etc.

    The visit of Bäckman, together with Serbian nationalists Miodrag Zarković, Goran Milenković and Dejan Dzakula, was important, she claimed, “since the presence of foreign observers at any vote increases the level of trust to the process itself. We welcome the decision of the Europeans to visit the Donetsk people’s republic and hope that in their conclusions they will give us specific recommendations on holding the vote in accordance with all international norms and standards”. The current delegation was soon to be joined by “representatives of Germany, Italy, Romania, France and other European countries”.

    The addresses given by both Bäckman and Zarković left little doubt about what kind of “impartial coverage” they were there to provide.

    Speaking in Russian, Bäckman, described by all DNR sources as a “famous human rights activist, political analyst and civic activist, spoke of how a new state was in the process of being formed. The West was unhappy about this, he asserted, and there was constant aggression from Ukraine against the population of Donbas. Bäckman claims that Ukraine’s main aim is “to stop democratic processes in Donbas”. He says that he has been in DNR a number of times “during the first two years of the young republic” and is basically effusive in his praise.

    Zarković was equally positive, though seemingly less aware of where he was, stating that this “is the first time I’m in Russia, or Belarus”.

    All the visitors had, doubtless, crossed illegally into Ukraine from Russia. We can only speculate whether they received the generous treatment of those ‘observers’ brought to Donbas via Moscow for the first illegal ‘elections’ at the beginning of November 2014.

    Those ‘elections’ were treated with all seriousness by the Russian media with much made of the ‘international observers’ present, with Russia Today claiming there to be as many as 300. The day before it was announced that these observers were from something called ASCE [the Agency for Security and Cooperation in Europe]. This was an obvious attempt to deceive people since the name sounds very similar to the OSCE, which unlike ‘ASCE’ does exist. Like during the Crimean ‘referendum’, there were a number of invited ‘observers’ from far-right or Stalinist parties, all with a pronounced pro-Kremlin position.

    There were also vegetables in abundance. These were almost certainly brought in specially by one of the Russia’s so-called ‘humanitarian convoys’, and sold like in Soviet days, 3 bags per person, with this used to entice people to take part in the ‘vote’. News of Donbas reported that you could vote by presenting a copy of your passport, rather than the original and where you wanted. For the free refreshments and cheap vegetables, people may well have ‘voted’ many times.

    Even Russia in the end found it best not to recognize the ‘electoral results’ of such a market day event. By then, however, all the ‘observers’ had managed to find it all impeccably democratic. As Bäckman & Co made quite clear at the press conference on Monday, the same can be expected from them.

    While the ‘observers’ and the militants themselves are all out to prove that Ukraine is stopping the elections, in January this year Zakharchenko stated that Ukrainian parties would not be allowed to take part in their local elections.

    Then on March 18, he categorically rejected any elections held in accordance with Ukrainian legislation, but claimed that they would be “according to international OSCE standards”.

    The rhetoric about OSCE standards is meaningless and not only because it breaches the above commitment. OSCE standards ensure universal suffrage; equal participation of all parties; non-discriminatory access of all media, etc. So does Ukrainian legislation and so must any separate law. This is what neither the militants, nor Moscow, are willing to accept.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2016 at 05:33 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    Almost 60% of Germans think refugees will make the country stronger because of their work and talents. @pewresearch
    Most Germans believe that migrants will increase the likelihood of terrorism and that Muslims want to be “distinct” (July 11, 2016)

    The fact that Germans believe that their economy and social system can handle the migrant inflows does not mean that they believe the migrants have essential skills, which they usually do not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    Part of the refugee problem was that the numbers initially overwhelmed the government and they had no messaging and narrative e for the public to accommodate the sheer numbers...since then the government has caught up, has a solid integration program in place and is controlling tighter and tighter and thus the confidence of the public increases...
    Yet Merkel made Germany a target for these flows. Early on, the European Union could have taken a hard line against migrant flows of which only 1/3 were genuine refugees fleeing war. The EU could have directed funds to support border control and refugee housing in Greece, potentially helping the Greek economy, and negotiated a deal with Turkey many months sooner. There is a reason these migrants are targeting Germany, the UK and Sweden as opposed to Hungary, Poland or France…

    The public narrative was that accepting one million unemployed young men with little to no skills (but EUR 3,000 to 10,000) was an act of generosity to help offset Germany’s historical sins.

    Nor am I convinced that there is a “solid integration program” other than to seal off the shelters from the public, censor reporting of migrant crimes and hope that the CDU’s open border policy is a lesser evil than what the SPD would propose.

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    Basically she [Merkel] backed fully the Ukrainian position…Merkel has something going for her that no US President has...she grew up in the former GDR, she speaks fluent Russian and fully understands Putin's mindset.....
    I still wonder how much of this is opposition to Russian aggression, and how much is merely supporter for EU expansion into Ukraine. When I think about the EU’s overreach in Ukraine, I am reminded of Germany’s overt and covert contacts with the Croatians during the Yugoslav Wars and then the KLA during the Kosovo War.

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    Except Pocomon [sic] Go where they will have a demo to demand it be released in Germany
    Apparently, Pokemon Go was released in Rostov in March of 2014. Unfortunately, the PokeStops were located about 100 miles northwest…

    I am glad that you bring up German opposition to the Vietnam War and the deployment of American nuclear weapons to Germany, as there is a continuum to German demonstrations against the Iraq War and NSA spying. The West Germans certainly did not protest the Soviet War in Afghanistan or Soviet deployment of nuclear weapons to East Germany with the same vigor; nor did the Germans take much notice of Georgia or Ukraine.

    I would argue that this is the result of the German defeat in 1945 and its post-war occupation.

    The Red Army’s war crimes in eastern Germany and especially Berlin, were absolutely horrendous. To add insult to injury, the Soviets annexed East Prussia, installed a pro-Soviet Stalinist regime and helped murder its opposition, built a wall around East Germany and stripped it of valuables, occupied it for over 50 years and threatened West Berlin and West Germany with invasion and nuclear destruction. At the end of the occupation, the Soviets had to grant East Germany its independence and bless German unification. Are the Russians of today remorseful for any of the crimes they committed? No. Are they willing to discuss any of it? No. Do they continue to occupy East Prussia? Yes. Do they continue to threaten Germany? Yes.

    In comparison, the Western Allies allowed for a democratic and pluralistic society to form in West Germany. They stimulated West Germany with funding and organizational know-how, kept their forces mainly disciplined, supplied West Berlin during the blockade, allowed for the free movement of Germans across borders, protected West Germany’s territorial integrity, and ultimately treated it as an independent ally. This all sounds very good, but it channels German resentment at defeat (there, I said it) in the wrong direction. If Germans accuse Americans of stealing their intellectual property, committing crimes (murder, rape theft) or acting as an occupier, Americans actually listen. Basically of the two “ex-husbands”, Russia is the angry violent drunk and the United States is the nice guy (relatively speaking). Germany is still afraid of Russia and ashamed at her humiliation at Russian hands, and so she walks on eggshells around Russia lest she need to wear the dark sunglasses again. But the United States? Well, he’ll apologize for not bringing flowers or showing up late or hanging out with the boys, even if he gets chirpy sometimes.

    That’s my theory in a nutshell…Germans critique the United States because it’s the only former occupier who will put up with the natter. Moreover, if the Americans defeated and occupied Germany because the Germans were tyrannical, it does slake some of the guilt to see the Americans act out of hand in Vietnam or Iraq, now doesn’t it? When the Americans are acting unilaterally and against world opinion, Germans can claim some moral superiority which is a type of ersatz victory.

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    Notice the comments made by Merkel during the Warsaw Summit....some of the strongest ever made by a German leader against Putin...BTW not even matched by Obama. The Russian sanctions will hold in the EU as long as Merkel holds the line as the EU knows who the EU paymaster is
    All well and good but the Bundeswehr better be ready to support the Baltic republics and Poland. Putin could also pressure the EU by stirring up trouble in Transnistria…

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    ...recent polling as late as last week clearly shows over 54% of Germans are now naming Russia as a serious threat to Germany.....up from say about 14% during Crimea...and remember Russia has now made Germany a prime info warfare target as it has a large Russian community and a large Russian mafia community.....and the FSB has been working Germany hard since 1991. So all in all do not write off the German public as not wanting to do anything except "business as usual"...they have indeed caught the curve...it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years...especially as they slowly rearm and rebuild their military to match the now perceived Russian threat.
    Well, the StaSi softened Germany up well, didn’t it? Glad that Steinmeier is fighting an uphill battle. He should be exiled to Kaliningrad. He’ll feel at home with the German architecture and the Russian soldiers and smugglers…

    Quote Originally Posted by Outlaw 09
    BUT one thing is a given for sure...with the exit of the UK from the EU...the next US President will be forced to work ever closer with Germany something that did not happen under the Obama/Rhodes WH....
    The US oscillates between the EU being threatening (despite its collective military power being latent) and advantageous (anti-military, pro-Western, unified, the Euro never supplanted the USD), which usually follows party lines. This is Germany’s time to come out of its shell, and hopefully (to paraphrase an earlier metaphor of mine), it won’t be a supernova or a black hole…

  15. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Most Germans believe that migrants will increase the likelihood of terrorism and that Muslims want to be “distinct” (July 11, 2016)

    The fact that Germans believe that their economy and social system can handle the migrant inflows does not mean that they believe the migrants have essential skills, which they usually do not.



    Yet Merkel made Germany a target for these flows. Early on, the European Union could have taken a hard line against migrant flows of which only 1/3 were genuine refugees fleeing war. The EU could have directed funds to support border control and refugee housing in Greece, potentially helping the Greek economy, and negotiated a deal with Turkey many months sooner. There is a reason these migrants are targeting Germany, the UK and Sweden as opposed to Hungary, Poland or France…

    The public narrative was that accepting one million unemployed young men with little to no skills (but EUR 3,000 to 10,000) was an act of generosity to help offset Germany’s historical sins.

    Nor am I convinced that there is a “solid integration program” other than to seal off the shelters from the public, censor reporting of migrant crimes and hope that the CDU’s open border policy is a lesser evil than what the SPD would propose.



    I still wonder how much of this is opposition to Russian aggression, and how much is merely supporter for EU expansion into Ukraine. When I think about the EU’s overreach in Ukraine, I am reminded of Germany’s overt and covert contacts with the Croatians during the Yugoslav Wars and then the KLA during the Kosovo War.



    Apparently, Pokemon Go was released in Rostov in March of 2014. Unfortunately, the PokeStops were located about 100 miles northwest…

    I am glad that you bring up German opposition to the Vietnam War and the deployment of American nuclear weapons to Germany, as there is a continuum to German demonstrations against the Iraq War and NSA spying. The West Germans certainly did not protest the Soviet War in Afghanistan or Soviet deployment of nuclear weapons to East Germany with the same vigor; nor did the Germans take much notice of Georgia or Ukraine.

    I would argue that this is the result of the German defeat in 1945 and its post-war occupation.

    The Red Army’s war crimes in eastern Germany and especially Berlin, were absolutely horrendous. To add insult to injury, the Soviets annexed East Prussia, installed a pro-Soviet Stalinist regime and helped murder its opposition, built a wall around East Germany and stripped it of valuables, occupied it for over 50 years and threatened West Berlin and West Germany with invasion and nuclear destruction. At the end of the occupation, the Soviets had to grant East Germany its independence and bless German unification. Are the Russians of today remorseful for any of the crimes they committed? No. Are they willing to discuss any of it? No. Do they continue to occupy East Prussia? Yes. Do they continue to threaten Germany? Yes.

    In comparison, the Western Allies allowed for a democratic and pluralistic society to form in West Germany. They stimulated West Germany with funding and organizational know-how, kept their forces mainly disciplined, supplied West Berlin during the blockade, allowed for the free movement of Germans across borders, protected West Germany’s territorial integrity, and ultimately treated it as an independent ally. This all sounds very good, but it channels German resentment at defeat (there, I said it) in the wrong direction. If Germans accuse Americans of stealing their intellectual property, committing crimes (murder, rape theft) or acting as an occupier, Americans actually listen. Basically of the two “ex-husbands”, Russia is the angry violent drunk and the United States is the nice guy (relatively speaking). Germany is still afraid of Russia and ashamed at her humiliation at Russian hands, and so she walks on eggshells around Russia lest she need to wear the dark sunglasses again. But the United States? Well, he’ll apologize for not bringing flowers or showing up late or hanging out with the boys, even if he gets chirpy sometimes.

    That’s my theory in a nutshell…Germans critique the United States because it’s the only former occupier who will put up with the natter. Moreover, if the Americans defeated and occupied Germany because the Germans were tyrannical, it does slake some of the guilt to see the Americans act out of hand in Vietnam or Iraq, now doesn’t it? When the Americans are acting unilaterally and against world opinion, Germans can claim some moral superiority which is a type of ersatz victory.



    All well and good but the Bundeswehr better be ready to support the Baltic republics and Poland. Putin could also pressure the EU by stirring up trouble in Transnistria…



    Well, the StaSi softened Germany up well, didn’t it? Glad that Steinmeier is fighting an uphill battle. He should be exiled to Kaliningrad. He’ll feel at home with the German architecture and the Russian soldiers and smugglers…



    The US oscillates between the EU being threatening (despite its collective military power being latent) and advantageous (anti-military, pro-Western, unified, the Euro never supplanted the USD), which usually follows party lines. This is Germany’s time to come out of its shell, and hopefully (to paraphrase an earlier metaphor of mine), it won’t be a supernova or a black hole…
    Azor...again a number of interesting remarks about Germany....but I am surprised that you also feel that Germany needs to come out of it's shell and lead.

    BUT and there is always a but...then when Germany leads.... all of Europe stands up in shock as does the US with panic ..."the Germans are coming"....

    Be it in the EU or with Ukraine or in Mali........

    Secondly, yesterday the German government released a document indicating that for the first time....non Germans can join the Bundeswehr meaning anyone residing in the EU minus naturally now UK.....

    That will allow it to bridge the lack of interest by Germans themselves to join as the economy is solid and pays overall better even though the Bundeswehr benefits actually are far better overall than even the US military.

    If you noticed this document also defined for the first time just how the Bundeswehr can be used outside of Germany....actually a first.

    Thirdly.....you mentioned the atrocities committed by the Soviet Army in Germany which did not really stop until 1951....in my area there is a cementary for German civilian internees who were thrown into NKVD concentration camps and basically starved to death as they "might have been Nazi's....but this included old men, women of all ages and yes even children.....100k plus died during that period and little has been written about it either in the GDR or the former BRD. The issue of the Soviet Army allowed raping across their fronts and up to Berlin...are actually now starting to be talked about and but when it does come up there is a massive Russian info warfare push back...

    Then the Soviets did not release their final German POWs until late 1950/51 only after German signed trade agreements with the SU and recognized the SU.

    The Soviets took war reparations from the GDR until the Wall fell....especially in the form of lopsided trade deals for say GDR built freighters which the Soviets always got at under sales price with a five year all inclusive guarantee which allowed the Soviets to drive the ships into the ground and then have the GDR completely rehab them at a cost to the GDR....then they virtually took the entire GDR agricultural crops leaving little for the GDR forcing them to use their limited foreign currency to purchase the shortfalls on the western markets. The same went for farm equipment produced in the GDR......let's not even mention Soviet uranium mining in the GDR....

    BTW...most polling inside say the Syrian refugee contingent indicates that only 7% are choosing to remain in Germany......the rest do want to return if and when the fighting comes to a full stop and Assad is gone....thus this is an easy fix THAT is if the West fully understands this. BTW the German government sentenced the first identified Syrian regime Shia militia member to three years for war crimes committed while he was in Syria fighting for Assad...14 more are in the court funnel....the German courts openly used his own FB entries...his argument..."I was forced to"...sound familiar?...but the Court pointed out he was smiling in the photos coupled with his own FB comments....

    Social media open source analysts passed the info to the German police....and it is to my knowledge the first use of such evidence by a German Court.

    AND yesterday the German Federal Police raided 16 locations and arrested 18 neo Nazi's/neo rightists for hate speech statements in the internet against immigarants......jail time of three years is a given.....remember Germany is just about the only country that actively backs up their hate speech laws...based largely on their Nazi past.....

    Same similar polling is also seen in the Iraqi contingent as well....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-14-2016 at 06:18 AM.

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    Amazingly frank interview with Putin Foreign Policy Advisor on NATO, Ukraine, propaganda & moral superiority http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1102629.html

    Moscow church sponsored procession from West approach Shepetivka today
    pic.twitter.com/wmjWQvlWBW
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-july...ach-shepetivka
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-14-2016 at 06:56 AM.

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    This is going to end well for the UK FP especially since the former PM was actively supporting the anti Assad side.....

    The new British Foreign Minister is an outspoken admirer of Vladimir #Putin's policy of helping #Assad in #Syria.

    BUT WAIT it gets even worse for the new UK FM.....

    A British Foreign Secretary who excuses Russia’s invasion of Crimea?
    http://khpg.org http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1468447666


    The new UK Prime Minister Theresa May doubtless had her reasons for giving leading Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson a cabinet post. Making him Foreign Secretary, however, defies any comprehension. It is especially difficult not to view this as an affront to all those currently facing persecution in Russian-occupied Crimea given his extraordinary attempt to blame Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on the EU. This was only one of a long list of distortions and lies told to encourage Britons to vote to leave the EU, but it is one which makes the new portfolio a matter of immense concern.

    On May 9 this year, during questions and answers after a speech on Europe, it transpired that for Johnson it was not Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea and its military aggression in Eastern Ukraine that had caused “real trouble”, but the EU’s actions.

    “If you want an example of EU foreign policymaking on the hoof and the EU’s pretensions to running a defence policy that have caused real trouble, then look at what has happened in Ukraine, ” he told reporters.

    Johnson later reacted angrily to what he called ‘smears’, denying that he was an apologist for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He did not explain what he had meant, and what, in his view, the EU had done to stoke tensions in Ukraine.

    It was hardly surprising, therefore, that his words were taken as justifying Russia’s actions. Johnson was, after all, simply repeating a position first taken by the head of the right-wing UKIP party Nigel Farage in a speech soon after Russia’s invasion of Crimea. In March 2014, Farage accused the EU of having “blood on its hands” for encouraging the turmoil in Ukraine which had supposedly led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. This was recalled days later when he was reported as saying that “Vladimir Putin is the world leader I most admire”

    Farage’s view of Putin and his slanted view of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine are shared by France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen, and in fact most far-right parties in Europe (Hungary’s Jobbik, Bulgaria’s Ataka, Poland’s Falanga and many others). It is their members, including some individuals known for their neo-Nazi views like Luc Michel and Manuel Ochsenreiter, who are regularly invited to act as ‘observers’ rubberstamping Russia’s ‘Crimean referendum’ and ‘elections’ in Donbas.

    It was undoubtedly Ukrainians’ support for closer ties to Europe and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s reneging on his pre-election promise to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement that sparked Euromaidan and the end of the Yanukovych regime. Yanukovych had been heavily backed by Putin, and fled to Russia, together with the cronies directly implicated in the gunning down of peaceful protesters.

    None of the reasons later given by Putin to justify the seizure of control by Russian troops of Crimea were substantiated. Violent deaths, disappearances and arrests of opponents have all come under Russian occupation. There was no evidence of any such excesses before Feb 27, 2014.

    Johnson was likely parroting the line taken by Brexit lobbyists who clearly blamed the EU for somehow encroaching on ‘Russia’s patch’. The Brexit camp, we learned, “believe that the EU’s eastwards expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries, as well as its attempts to reach economic deals with former Soviet states like Ukraine and Georgia, has provoked Russia into adopting a more aggressive military stance in areas like Crimea.”

    In a nutshell, they appeared to be saying, Russia was left no alternative but to invade and annex Ukrainian sovereign territory.

    This is essentially the line taken by the Kremlin, and all its friends.

    It is also, disturbingly, the line which at least in 2014 was taken by the now Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and appears to be held to this day by his close aide Seumas Milne. The bogeyman for them is NATO rather than the EU, though their perceived failure to firmly campaign against Brexit has been presented as the main reason for the leadership challenge currently underway.

    Britain, together with Russia and the USA, were signatories to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum which guaranteed Ukraine protection of its sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for giving up one of the largest nuclear arsenals in Europe. Neither the UK, however, nor other western countries reacted adequately to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The UK has, however, since taken a strong stand in supporting sanctions against Russia, imposed after Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine and the downing by Kremlin-backed militants of the Malaysian MH17 airliner on July 17, 2014.

    Britain’s robust position was greatly appreciated, as was its acknowledgement of the grave human rights concerns in Crimea under Russian occupation.

    What Johnson thinks appears to depend on the circumstances. Certainly, in an article from December 2015, while advocating fighting on the same side as Putin and Bashar Assad in Syria, he was at least critical of Putin (though later effusive in his praise of Putin’s bloody Syrian campaign which is believed by human rights NGOs, like Amnesty International, to have sometimes targeted civilians).

    It is, however, the Johnson of the Leave campaign whom the UK’s new Prime Minister has seen the need to appoint to a high-ranking post in her government, and his position on Ukraine and Crimea are therefore seriously alarming.

    Any blinkered presentation of Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the pseudo-referendum used to justify annexation flies in the face of the facts and begs the question of why Russia needed to bring in all its Eurosceptic friends from the far-right and far-left to act as ‘observers’.

    The abductions and disappearances began after annexation and are continuing with the latest victim – Ervin Ibragimov – a prominent Crimean Tatar activist.

    The Crimean Tatars, the main indigenous people of Crimea, faced persecution from the outset and this has now escalated with the criminalization of the Mejlis, or Crimean Tatar representative assembly. Three Crimean Tatars, including Akhtem Chiygoz, Deputy Head of the Mejlis, have been in detention for well over a year on surreal charges over the pre-annexation demonstration on Feb 26, 2014, which prevented Russia from carrying out a coup and seizure of power without deploying soldiers.

    There are a number of Crimean opponents of annexation in Russian prisons, including renowned Ukrainian filmmaker Oleg Sentsov. In Crimea, 14 Muslims, almost all Crimean Tatars, have so far been arrested and face huge sentences on totally fabricated charges. Other Ukrainians, including Mejlis leader Ilmi Umerov and journalist Mykola Semena are facing prison sentences for what Russia labels as “public calls to violate Russian territorial integrity”, otherwise known as recognizing Crimea as Ukrainian and wanting its return to Ukraine.

    All of this, and much more, is the direct result not of the EU’s support for Ukraine, but of Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea.
    Wonder just what the new UK FM is going to say about this.....it is all the fault of the EU and Ukraine ..probably......

    72 attacks by Ru militants yesterday. Heavy weaponry used. The escalation trend remains dominating on the ground
    https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/s...41067605917697

    REMEMBER any attack number of 50 is in fact full and deep combat operations being carried out by the Russian military and her mercenaries ...having nothing to do with a simple "ceasefire violations".....

    Combined Rus-militant forces fired 72 times upon Ukr troops over last day. Highest no.of attacks - 37 in Mariupol sector - ATO press center

    Maryinka was shelled with 152-mm artillery. Krasnohorivka, Optyne and Pisky hit from 122-mm SPGs.

    Video from #Avdiivka's Promzone, where the shooting never stops
    https://youtu.be/m_G5oyNB1BM

    Mariupol is a critical point as it blocks the way to Odessa which Russia has wanted to capture in the first place in 2014 as it would provide the Donbas with a viable port and totally land lock the Ukraine .......AND provide a land corridor to Crimea and Transisteria.....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-14-2016 at 07:28 AM.

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    Kremlin does not accept #Truth but fears NATO. Belarus does not feel threatened by #NATO's activity.
    http://europe.newsweek.com/putins-al...t-479713?rm=eu

    Grushko says they'll fly with transponders when @nato planes do. Stoltenberg says issue is "safe behavior".
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-na...KCN0ZT2KB?il=0

    BUT WAIT...Russia lies again and NATO always flies with their transponders on even the US recce RC-135s......another "vodka" moment for a Russian rep....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-14-2016 at 07:35 AM.

  19. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This is going to end well for the UK FP especially since the former PM was actively supporting the anti Assad side.....

    The new British Foreign Minister is an outspoken admirer of Vladimir #Putin's policy of helping #Assad in #Syria.

    BUT WAIT it gets even worse for the new UK FM.....

    A British Foreign Secretary who excuses Russia’s invasion of Crimea?
    http://khpg.org http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1468447666

    Wonder just what the new UK FM is going to say about this.....it is all the fault of the EU and Ukraine ..probably......

    72 attacks by Ru militants yesterday. Heavy weaponry used. The escalation trend remains dominating on the ground
    https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/s...41067605917697

    REMEMBER any attack number of 50 is in fact full and deep combat operations being carried out by the Russian military and her mercenaries ...having nothing to do with a simple "ceasefire violations".....

    Combined Rus-militant forces fired 72 times upon Ukr troops over last day. Highest no.of attacks - 37 in Mariupol sector - ATO press center

    Maryinka was shelled with 152-mm artillery. Krasnohorivka, Optyne and Pisky hit from 122-mm SPGs.

    Video from #Avdiivka's Promzone, where the shooting never stops
    https://youtu.be/m_G5oyNB1BM

    Mariupol is a critical point as it blocks the way to Odessa which Russia has wanted to capture in the first place in 2014 as it would provide the Donbas with a viable port and totally land lock the Ukraine .......AND provide a land corridor to Crimea and Transisteria.....
    A partial list of countries New British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has insulted:
    http://slate.me/29EuCWy

    When @StateDept heard the news about Boris. If you watch one thing today...
    Amazing how many emotions cross his face at once:
    https://www.c-span.org/video/?c46107...ns-appointment

    Merkel invites British PM May for talks in Berlin, declines to comment on Johnson
    http://reut.rs/29EVPJ1
    Johnson was not on the invite list it appears as some are saying from the Merkel side.....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-14-2016 at 08:37 AM.

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    One has to wonder who is funding the Carnegie Endowment when reading this article arguing against Russia sanctions http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/07...ions-pub-64056

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