Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

A good explanation of the power struggle in Zimbabwe:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...re-post-mugabe

Interesting that the release of government records in the UK, USA and Australia, may have an impact.

[davidbfpo]

Via a newsletter on Zimbabwe:

In the second week of May, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said that up to 4.5 million people - half of Zimbabwe's drought-stricken rural population - will need aid by March 2017. A few weeks before the UN launched an appeal for $360 million to provide life-saving assistance for more than three million people. The UN Resident Coordinator for Zimbabwe said at the end of May that $70 million has been received, leaving a gap of $290 million.

Meanwhile the country director of the UN World Food Programme, pointed out that Zimbabwe´s 2016 maize production forecast would fall below 60% of the five-year average. Zimbabwe's average harvest in the last five years has been between 700,000 and 1 5 million tonnes, against annual consumption of between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes, he said. An El Nino-induced drought has hit southern Africa and cut the output of the staple maize crop. In March, the government said 4 million Zimbabweans required food aid, almost 30% of the national population.

The majority of Zimbabweans still live in the countryside, even though large numbers have moved to the cities.

Is this a pre-revolutionary time?

[Firn]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

[davidbfpo]

Sadly history has shown that a regime can survive a hunger crisis while many of it's citiziens might not.

Firn,

I would agree, but this report suggests that this time could be different and the key point is in bold:

A general strike paralysed Zimbabwe on Wednesday as shops and businesses shut down, public transport came to a halt and children were turned away from school......A spiralling economic crisis means that Zimbabwe has run out of money. The regime can no longer pay civil servants or teachers and strict limits have been imposed on the amount that ordinary people can withdraw from bank accounts......In the past, Mr Mugabe, 92, would simply order the Reserve Bank to print money whenever his coffers were empty. But the worst hyperinflation in history forced Zimbabwe to abandon its national currency in 2009. The country now uses the US dollar – which Mr Mugabe cannot print.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-out-of-money/

When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

[davidbfpo]

Professor Stephen Chan is a SME on Zimbabwe and has an article on the visit to the City of London this week by Zimbabwe's Finance Minister:https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-finance-minister-makes-a-doomed-pitch-to-londons-big-businesses-62015?

A reminder of the position:

Zimbabwe has no money, and its government has no fiscal plan. Its reserves are emptied, tax revenues are inadequate, public funds are still ransacked, and much of the country’s remaining formal employment is in an unproductive public service.

(Later) But Mugabe is simply not trusted by the rest of the world, and he dares not mandate a change to the indigenisation law – especially not now, as his health declines and as he perhaps secretly looks to secure his wife’s path to succeed him. Indigenisation was meant to placate Zimbabwean nationalism, which still percolates among younger generations as well as older ones.

[Firn]

Good reads. The day will come when power changes hands. Without a widely shared, supported, clear and hardly disputed way as in a modern democracy this is bound to create great tensions and potential violent conflict as has been seen time and time again. Especially so as in a state like Zimbabwe the winner may take almost all while the losers may lose all, including it's life.

Economic actors without political backing might suffer greatly in such a conflict as their wealth is some of the increasingly spare capital available for the rent seeking. Land is one of the most important assets which remains in a starved economy and it's allocation may be crucial to secure political support. That will be another heavy blow for the economy and the hungry masses but might be seen as key to take political control...

[davidbfpo]

Two articles, one an analysis and the second a tale of high-level antics.

The first, in a South African blog and I noted these two points:

A lot depends on whether the army gets paid or not on Friday

Then following "family first" for President Mugabe:

his closest family, including wife Grace Mugabe, are currently in Singapore.

Link:http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/artic...-go-from-here/

The police arrest two suspects for corruption and who arives at the police station demanding their release, which is recorded by hand in the record books? The Vice President!
Link:https://www.newsday.co.zw/2016/07/15...-zinara-storm/

[davidbfpo]

A week ago I asked:

When will the regime not be able to pay the police and soldiers?

According to this report:

Zimbabwe has failed to pay the army on time for the second straight month, military sources said on Friday

Link:http://nehandaradio.com/2016/07/16/z...rmy-2nd-month/

They appear to be a Zimbabwe based radio station.

[davidbfpo]

I missed the reporting last week that the veterans of the liberation struggle, who were used to often violently evict 'commercial' or white farmers a few years ago, had issued a statement against President Mugabe:

We note, with concern, shock and dismay, the systematic entrenchment of dictatorial tendencies, personified by the president and his cohorts, which have slowly devoured the values of the liberation struggle...We are dismayed by the president's tendency to indulge, in his usual vitriol against perceived enemies, including peaceful protesters, as well as war veterans, when the economy is on its knees," the veterans' association's statement said. "He has a lot to answer for the serious plight of the national economy.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36860159

Yesterday President Mugabe made his reaction clear:

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him.
At a rally of his Zanu-PF party supporters and veterans who remain loyal to him, Mr Mugabe also urged the veterans to choose new leaders.
He blamed the West for splits in the veterans' association. 'Once we find out who wrote that statement, the party will punish them. "During the war we had rebels who we punished... some by detaining them underground, feeding them there'.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36906732

Today the BBC reports

Zimbabwe’s war veterans’ spokesman, Douglas Mahiya, has been arrested. He was taken into custody on Wednesday, the day President Robert Mugabe threatened to punish those war veterans who last week said they were withdrawing their backing for him. Mr Mahiya, along with about 150 others, attended the meeting of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans' Association which came up with the communique accusing Mr Mugabe of being dictatorial and egotistical.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36685940

[davidbfpo]

In Post 365 I cited Professor Stephen Chan and today's email contained a link to a very pessimistic Q&A with him:https://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles...e-from-zanu-pf

[davidbfpo]

Hello and welcome to the program Hot Seat, my name is Violet Gonda. In our 2nd episode of this new series we talk to Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association spokesman Douglas Mahiya, who was arrested last week following the release of a damning communiqu which described President Robert Mugabe as a genocidal dictator and urged the 92 year old leader to leave office.

There is a podcast and a transcript:http://www.violetgonda.com/hot-seat/...ouglas-mahiya/

[davidbfpo]

An interesting commentary on two issues: the situation in Zimbabwe and the potential for social media to educate and mobilize the "masses".

A stinging sentence on the regime:

..a political regime which has decayed and only exists to profiteer on people’s taxes, literally — if you doubt this profiteering, witness a first lady who spends US$1,35 million on a ring which is the equivalent of paying for close to 200 nurses’ salaries for a whole year.

Here is a SM passage:

Let us be real here: the teenager is likely to read H-Metro, watch YouTube videos, spend time on Facebook, or follow Twitter debates and know more about “Stunner and Olinda“ or “Andy and Bev”. This is the generation that will vote, it has no time for rallies, for polemic political essays, newspapers and research papers; it is the selfie-obsessed narcissistic generation and they consume news in sound-bites not rumbling speeches done by old pot-bellied men.

Link:https://www.theindependent.co.zw/201...er-narratives/

[davidbfpo]

This thread in the Historian arena sadly explains much of what has happened in Zimbabwe:Mugabe-style COIN: Gukurahundi

From the author, Stuart Doran of a book on that theme cited there:

And yet Mugabe and Zanu-PF have clung tenaciously to the fantasy of perpetual, total domination. It is for this reason, more than any other, that Zimbabwe remains trapped in a sterile cycle of conflict and subjugation.

[BayonetBrant]

https://zimbabwe-today.com/rhodesian...-war-vets-say/

[davidbfpo]

Last week's post was surprising enough, with war veterans once again showing their opposition to Robert Mugabe. now a potentially more dangerous "shot across the bows" and the BBC's headline:

Zimbabwe military chief Chiwenga in Zanu-PF purge warning

So what did he say, with ninety senior officers standing with him?

The current purging, which is clearly targeting members of the party with a liberation background, must stop forthwith....We must remind those behind the current treacherous shenanigans that when it comes to matters of protecting our revolution, the military will not hesitate to step in.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41970317

Whether the leadership are true to the revolution is a moot point, perhaps they also fear for their wealth from the younger generation.

[AdamG]

A coup is reportedly under way in Zimbabwe, with reports on social media claiming that the head of Zimbabwe military Constantino Chiwenga has given President Robert Mugabe 24 hours to vacate office after sacking his vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa.

https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbab...babwe-20171114

[davidbfpo]

So far we have reports on a few APC moving along a traditional route and one broke down. If this was a coup it is hardly significant, as a signal it might resonate.

The ZNA are very unlikely IMHO to be seen as "friends of the people", given their role in suppressing protests and their leader's enrichment. Is this just another episode in the competition for power? As this BBC News item suggests:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41984813

[AdamG]

A witness who spoke to Reuters saw two tanks* parked up on the main road from Harare to Chinhoyi, about 20 km (14 miles) from the city. Social Media has seen ambiguous photos of military personnel making their way to the Capital.
The strong show of force comes just a day after the armed forces said they would step in ‘if Mugabe was to dismiss any further army officials’. The fired Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa shares a very cosy relationship with the army, and it seems like they are throwing their support behind him following his dismissal.

https://www.thesouthafrican.com/watc...-coup-attempt/

* Actually, Chinese-made APCs.

Looks like a Type 89/90 ARV (six road wheels, boom crane & box body rear hull) towing the Type YW309 APC. Even coin toss between a vehicle recovery mission and an actual road movement, given where we're talking about.

[Azor]

https://apnews.com/91bb7f9b5f2f4d00b...&utm_medium=AP

TRUNCATED

5:50 a.m.

• Zimbabwe’s army urges other security services to “cooperate for the good of our country,” warning that “any provocation will be met with an appropriate response.”
  
• The statement read out early Wednesday on state-run television calls on troops to return to barracks immediately, with all leave canceled.
  
• It says that if the country’s degenerating political, social and economic situation is not addressed, it “may result in a violent conflict.”
  
• The army insists that this is not a military takeover and that President Robert Mugabe’s security is guaranteed.

4:55 a.m.

• Zimbabwe’s army has announced that “this is not a military takeover” and that President Robert Mugabe and his family are safe and sound.
  
• “We are only targeting criminals around who him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice,” the army announced on state-run media.
  
• The army statement says that “as soon as we have accomplished our mission, we expect that the situation will return to normalcy.”

[davidbfpo]

A curious event in Harare, the army say we have moved, Robert Mugabe and family are safe and sounds of artillery fire in the north of the city. This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and the dismissed Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reportedly back in town. With the Presidential Guard still on duty.

BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41992351

A running story:https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...rt-mugabe-live