South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[AdamG]

The Pentagon has concluded that an intercept of a U.S. military aircraft by Chinese fighter jets last week over the South China Sea violated an agreement the two governments signed last year, a U.S. defense official said on Thursday.

The Pentagon findings contradict what the Chinese Defense Ministry said earlier in the day.

Last year, the United States and China announced an agreement establishing rules of behavior to govern air-to-air encounters and creating a military hotline.

"The review of the Chinese intercept of one of our reconnaissance aircraft has assessed the intercept to have been unsafe based upon the Memorandum of Understanding with China and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards," U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bill Urban told Reuters.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[AdamG]

Spotting a large vessel off the coast of Sarawak state in March, officers on a Malaysian patrol boat were shocked when it steamed towards them at high speed, blaring its horn before veering off to reveal "Chinese Coast Guard" emblazoned on its side.

According to an officer from the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA), Chinese Coast Guard vessels have been sighted several times before around the South Luconia Shoals, off the oil-rich town of Miri. But such an aggressive encounter was a first.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[Bill Moore]

http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/the...-21st-century/

The Choice for Asia in the 21st Century
Sen. John McCain

Editor’s Note: The following is adapted from Sen. McCain’s speech as prepared for delivery at RSIS in Singapore before the start of the Shangri-la Dialogue.

Southeast Asia faces a choice. As a frequent visitor to this region, I have lived to see things I never thought possible. Singapore has transformed itself from a small port town to a global financial hub. The Philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Burma is on a path to democracy. Indonesia has become an emerging regional leader. America and Vietnam have laid down the burdens of history and are building a new economic and security partnership. I could go on.

I like the way Sen McCain framed the choice here, this is a narrative that is factual and one China cannot compete with.

The choice for Southeast Asia in the 21st century is not between the United States and China, as some would make it out to be. Instead it is a choice between two futures—one in which the rules-based order is upheld and its benefits expanded to ever more people in Asia, or a darker future that resembles the past in this region and the world, where might makes right, and bullies set the rules and break them.

A major test will come later this month when the Permanent Court of Arbitration is expected to rule on the case filed by the Government of the Philippines concerning disputed areas of the South China Sea. There is no principle more fundamental to the rules-based order than the rule of law.

[AdamG]

BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - China should prepare itself for military confrontation in the South China Sea, an influential Chinese paper said on Tuesday, a week ahead of a decision by an international court on a dispute there between China and the Philippines.

Tensions have been rising ahead of a July 12 ruling by an arbitration court hearing the argument between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea in the Dutch city of The Hague.

In joint editorials in its Chinese and English editions, the state-run Global Times said the dispute, having already been complicated by U.S. intervention, now faces further escalation due to the threat posed by the tribunal to China's sovereignty.

"Washington has deployed two carrier battle groups around the South China Sea, and it wants to send a signal by flexing its muscles: As the biggest powerhouse in the region, it awaits China's obedience," it said.

China should speed up developing its military deterrence abilities, the paper added.

"Even though China cannot keep up with the U.S. militarily in the short-term, it should be able to let the U.S. pay a cost it cannot stand if it intervenes in the South China Sea dispute by force," it said.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[Azor]

From Jamestown:

With the announcement that the Permanent Court of Arbitration will rule on July 12 on its case between the Philippine and Chinese governments regarding China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas, tensions in the area are coming to a head (Court of Arbitration, June 29). On July 3, China’s Maritime Safety Agency released a notice to mariners declaring a sizable part of the South China Sea off-limits between July 5–11 for military exercises (China Maritime Safety Administration, July 3; see map). The off-limits area is more than 86,000 square kilometers, larger than South Carolina. China has also increased its tempo of public statements and rebuttals regarding the court case in recent months (China Brief, June 21).

[AdamG]

China has lost a key international legal case over strategic reefs and atolls that it claims would give it control over disputed waters of the South China Sea. The judgment by an international tribunal in The Hague chiefly in favour of claims by the Philippines will increase global diplomatic pressure on Beijing to scale back military expansion in the sensitive area.

By depriving certain outcrops – some of which are exposed only at low tide – of territorial-generating status, the ruling effectively punches a series of holes in China’s all-encompassing “nine-dash” demarcation line that stretches deep into the South China Sea. It declares large areas of the sea to be neutral international waters.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[SWJ Blog]

International Court Rules Against Beijing in South China Sea Dispute

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[AdamG]

Beijing will close off access to part of the South China Sea for military drills, officials said Monday, after an international tribunal ruled against its sweeping claims in the waters.

An area off the east coast of China's island province of Hainan will host military exercises from Tuesday to Thursday, China's maritime administration said on its website, adding that entrance was "prohibited".

The area of sea identified is some distance from the Paracel islands and even further from the Spratlys, with both chains claimed by Beijing and several other neighbouring states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartandhp

[Maeda Toshiie]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

[davidbfpo]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

One would hope that political and military planners - not just Americans - have considered this as a possibility.

My recollection is that the Cold War era US-USSR de-confliction agreements included such circumstances and enabled direct military to military communication. Somehow I doubt those agreements informally and formally have been replicated with the PRC.

[Dayuhan]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

The exercise area is well away from the disputed area and nowhere near where the US FONOPS have been taking place.

[Maeda Toshiie]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10B10G

'Give them a bloody nose': Xi pressed for stronger South China Sea response

China's leadership is resisting pressure from elements within the military for a more forceful response to an international court ruling against Beijing's claims in the South China Sea, sources said, wary of provoking a clash with the United States.

China refused to participate in the case overseen by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

It denounced the emphatic July 12 ruling in favor of the Philippines as a farce that had no legal basis and part of an anti-China plot cooked up in Washington.

The ruling has been followed in China by a wave of nationalist sentiment, scattered protests and strongly worded editorials in state media.

...

Bunch of chicken hawks. Who would've thunk?

[AdamG]

Why did China fly 'combat patrols' over the Spratly Islands?

In the wake of an international court's ruling rejecting China's claims to disputed territory in the South China Sea, China said the combat exercises were an effort to protect its 'maritime interests.'

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-...pratly-Islands

Satellite photographs taken in late July show China appears to have built reinforced aircraft hangars on its holdings in disputed South China Sea islands, a Washington-based research group said.

The hangars on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly islands have room for any fighter jet in the Chinese air force, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a report on the photographs.

The images have emerged about a month after an international court in The Hague ruled against China's claims in the resource-rich area, a decision rejected by Beijing. China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10K08P

Vietnam has discreetly fortified several of its islands in the disputed South China Sea with new mobile rocket launchers capable of striking China's runways and military installations across the vital trade route, according to Western officials.

Diplomats and military officers told Reuters that intelligence shows Hanoi has shipped the launchers from the Vietnamese mainland into position on five bases in the Spratly islands in recent months, a move likely to raise tensions with Beijing

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10K2NE

[SWJ Blog]

The South China Sea: Containing a Regional Conflict

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[AdamG]

As good a thread as any for this observation, on public perceptions and how the Chinese entertainment industry views themselves and their enemies: in WOLF WARRIOR, the Good Guys are no longer Mao's valiant warriors but are all about the high tech and the bad guys are Caucasian former SEALs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqCNF5XttZg

[SWJ Blog]

Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook on Incident in South China Sea

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[SWJ Blog]

Tensions in the South China Sea National Intelligence Estimate: The Next Two to Three Years

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[AdamG]

China is preparing for a potential military clash with the United States, according to an article on the Chinese army's website.
"The possibility of war increases" as tensions around North Korea and the South China Sea heat up, Liu Guoshun, a member of the national defense mobilization unit of China's Central Military Commission, wrote on Jan. 20—the same day as President Donald Trump's inauguration.
"'A war within the president's term', 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, but the reality," Liu said in the Chinese commentary piece.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-ch...cial-says.html

[AdamG]

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Saturday played down any need for major U.S. military moves in the South China Sea to contend with China's assertive behavior, even as he sharply criticized Beijing for "shredding the trust of nations in the region."
"At this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all," Mattis told a news conference in Tokyo, stressing that the focus should be on diplomacy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN15J061

Meanwhile, the Guardian's cup is half-full

China has accused the US of putting the stability of the Asia-Pacific at risk after Donald Trump’s defence secretary said Washington would come to Japan’s defence in the event of a conflict with Beijing over the disputed Senkaku islands.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...?CMP=edit_2221

[Azor]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-ch...cial-says.html

Yawn. The Chinese have had plenty of time and space to resolve the following issues without any external pressure:

15 years to renounce using military force against Taiwan
10-15 years to disarm North Korea, removing nuclear weapons from the peninsula
10-15 years to resolve territorial disputes with Japan and the Philippines diplomatically and without the use of coercion or force

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN15J061

Mattis is quite correct. However, the forces in theater should be prepared for war as China will probably strike first, hard and fast. Establishing Allied A2/AD zones in the First and Second Island Chains while under fire will be important, and the USMC can play an important role in establishing land-based components of those zones.

Meanwhile, the Guardian's cup is half-full

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...?CMP=edit_2221

It's plain wrong.

The United States has explicitly stated for decades that the Diaoyou/Senkakus are under Japan's administration (despite the trilateral dispute), and therefore are covered by American defense commitments to Japan.