The Trump impact on US policy

[Azor]

We all know - hopefully - that engagement in small wars invariably leads to friction and far worse in the realm of civil-military relations. As President how will he fare? Not his Cabinet and advisers.

Throughout the election campaign, Trump has vocally opposed humanitarian intervention and regime change (e.g. Iraq and Libya), while calling for stronger action against Daesh* and threatening to respond with force to threatening or dangerous maneuvers in international airspace and waters**.

Hindsight may always be 20/20, but the military adventures of Clinton, Bush and Obama (first term), were disasters in the main. Not only were there errors of commission (Iraq, Libya, Kosovo), but also omission (Pakistan, North Korea, Africa).

Unfortunately, due to Putin's long personal rule and the CPC's bureaucratic inertia, Moscow and Beijing see American foreign policy as less at mercy of party politics and the various election cycles, and more as a bid for global mastery disguised as chaos. Note that Stalin believed that all Western leaders were as capricious as him.

'Telling truth to power' already appears to be one (I assume for the moment the hacking intelligence is correct).

Trump's reaction was not measured, but was a reasonable response to the Democratic/Clinton insinuation that Trump was effectively a Russian agent. Or perhaps Trump understood that Americans would not grasp the nuance of acknowledging probable Russian responsibility for the hack, but denying any benefit from it. The Russian hacking issue is toxic because of the narrative that the DNC and Clinton built around it...

Certainly, the ODNI and FBI have disagreed with the alleged CIA conclusion that Putin was supporting Trump as opposed to casting doubt on US democracy.

Moreover, the damage done by WikiLeaks was in July (and less than Comey's public release), and overcome by Clinton winning the nomination, the Access Hollywood tape and Trump's performance during the first debate (in estimated electoral votes as counted by FiveThirtyEight.com). What did Hillary in was her remark about "deplorables" in October, followed by Comey's letters in November and December.

It does seem that the Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans, especially with ties to the Intelligence Community, are contesting Trump's legitimacy. Clinton, through her surrogates, is blaming Comey, Obama, Russia, the Electoral College, etc.

Then there is his lack of experience. Even if surrounded by those who know better (we assume and hope; let alone that he accepts their advice). A property and media empire is hardly similar IMHO. He faces a rather steep learning curve in January, however good his transition team and others try to prepare him.

Personally and from "across the water" I do wonder if President Trump will concentrate on domestic matters and devolve responsibility for much of foreign policy to others.

I partly agree. I think that he will focus on domestic policy, but be a showman overseas (not unlike Putin).



*Looser ROEs? More air assets? Greater support to anti-Daesh fighters?
**He threatened Iran, but China has acted similarly and Russia is the worst provocateur. Obama has not responded to these provocations