Originally Posted by
Azor
Note that I didn't post this article because I necessarily agreed with it...
RE:
1. It seemed to me that the latest abortive ceasefire was never adhered to by either Damascus or Teheran, despite their supposed inclusion, and that this was merely a political stunt by Ankara and Moscow to embarrass the United States.
2. Agreed. In hindsight, the only faction capable of conquering Sunni Arab Syria and perhaps all of Syria, was Daesh. I say this strictly from the perspective of organization and resources (Iraqi manpower, eastern Syrian oil and gas), as Daesh's ideology was its own undoing. Now, I can't see any one faction succeeding, although there is a coalition of sorts between the secular or moderate Sunni Arabs and the Islamist ones, on the basis of oppression by Alawites and Shias on the one hand, and Kurds on the other. I doubt that the opposition will be able to mobilize enough undecided Christians and Druze, or turn those on Assad's side...
3. Also agreed. Assad couldn't hold both the cities and lock down the borders to prevent supplies aiding a rural insurgency.
4. Remember the "Pottery Barn rule"? I hope that Russia and Iran have been contributing to a reconstruction fund...
5. Which is why if he steps down, he will be offered asylum in Iran most likely.
6. There is no one capable of imposing a ceasefire in Syria in order for truth and reconciliation to begin, and certainly neither Iran nor Russia want to deal with the truth of the matter that Assad is dependent upon foreign support...
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