Azor....there is an interesting way to estimate Russian deaths inside eastern Ukraine but it takes a lot of research but the info is there....
Collating 2016 #OSCE data. Why are Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations trucks crossing border? Carrying bodies?
http://www.osce.org/om/255341
Plus the OSCE reported Russian trucks spotted carrying the 200 symbol for KIAs...
This though does not count those buried inside eastern Ukraine in largely unmarked graves...who usually are locals...
"A right-wing militia trains #Russians to fight the next #war — with or without #Putin" via @WashingtonPost:
http://goo.gl/5I9U5G
Ukraine Def. Minister reveals number of Russian military grouping, hardware in #Donbas
http://stfi.re/xjboknj
Russian media: one of top pro-#Russia #Luhansk separatists Valeriy Bolotov died, alleg. bcs of wounds.
http://www.rbc.ru/politics/27/01/201...from=newsfeed#
Reference the Russian shot down of MH17....
JIT: “Russian Federation handed over MH17 radar recordings in unusual format”
http://bit.ly/2k0Vml3
Bascially no one can read the Russian data which was the Russia intent...
2nd top pro-RU separat-s in occup. areas of #Ukraine's #Donbas dead today. After Bolotov in Luhansk, now ex "minister" Tretiakov in Donetsk.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-27-2017 at 11:15 PM.
IMPORTANT Russian snap exercise development....
Russia heavy lift helicopters deploy on NATO front. Claim preparation for Zapad-2017 war games.
Way too early and to up close to the border.....
Militants attacks Ukraine positions in Donbas 60 times, ATO forces report 3 WIAs
Take that,fascists!' Another Grad rocket give'n'take fr #Russia-held #Donetsk residential areas. #Avdiivka #Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtSlkbTtlXs#
Since last week, 3 #NATO members (#Denmark, #Norway & Czech R.) report evidence of #cyber attacks from #Russia.
Video report from #Avdiivka. Recorded yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x9JM4rWf5E
#Russian terrorists continue to shell #Avdiivka randomly. 52 houses damaged, 2 civilians killed...
https://www.facebook.com/reutski/pos...8808708671853#
Tanks have entered Bulavin village between Vuhlehirsk and Yenakiieve, DNR held territory.
Polk Kyiv commander Deydey in Avdeevka tells @ChristopherJM: "Our tanks are preparing for battle"
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-03-2017 at 05:57 PM.
24 attacks of Russian forces today before 8am, 2 Ukrainian soldiers killed since midnight
Russia instigating a flare-up of violence in east #Ukraine to nullify 2-year long Minsk-2 peace deal. Wants new deal
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uk...idUSKBN15I289#
British photo #journalist @ChrisNunnPhoto hit by Russian-backed shelling in #Avdiivka, east. #Ukraine: 'I am alive'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...a7561966.html#
Heavy battles erupting in #Donetsk now, machine guns, artillery impacts
Russian forces plotting offensive in Donbas - Ukrainian Intel
https://www.unian.info/war/1758637-r...as-intel.html#
Makeevka: 3 units of heavy tracked vehicles on the move, accompanied by traffic police
Militants in Donetsk disperse civilians who try to stop them from shelling Avdiyivka – Tuka
Kremlin propaganda masterminds to arrive in Donetsk shortly – MP Tymchuk
https://www.unian.info/war/1758282-k...k.html#…
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-03-2017 at 06:43 PM.
"Conflict Escalates Again in Eastern Ukraine: Possible Causes and Consequences"
Jamestown Foundation: Eurasia Daily Monitor
https://jamestown.org/program/confli...-consequences/
Ihor Kabanenko
The first quarter of 2017 was marked by a renewed escalation of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine. The increased military confrontation began in the vicinity of Donetsk, at the end of January, when saboteur-reconnaissance groups of Russia-backed militants made an attempt to seize the Avdiivka Coke Plant (ACP)—the largest coking enterprise in Europe. Severe fighting around the area continued during February–March. Moscow-backed guerrillas heavily shelled Ukrainian troop positions; on one day, as many as 117 instances of heavy weapons fire were recorded coming from the occupied side (Segodnya.ua, March 1). By mid-March, the Russian-supported forces initiated a fight in the direction of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol (Mariupil) (Hromadskeradio.org, March 19; Censor.net.ua, March 20).
It should be noted the heavy weapons used extensively against Ukrainian regular forces in the battles near Avdiivka and Mariupol include multiple rocket launched systems (MRLS), which in accordance with the Minsk Agreements were supposed to have been withdrawn beyond 70 kilometers from the line of contact. Shelling was also carried out by Russia-backed militants using 122-millimeter (mm) and 152 mm artillery systems, 120 mm and 82 mm mortars, as well as tanks and combat vehicles. Grenade launchers, small arms and sniper fire intensified during these battles as well. In addition, there has been a marked increase in the use of 14.5 mm weapons with greater range and lethality than small arms. The relentless nature of these attacks has caused unusually high levels of injuries. In both areas, MRLS systems fired by the Russia-backed militants caused indiscriminate destruction of residential buildings (UNIAN, March 18; Delovaya Stolica, March 27). The intense use of heavy weapons damaged the infrastructure connected to the ACP, and on January 30 the coke plant’s industrial cycle had to be stopped (Epravda.com.ua, February 6). A bit over a month later, coke production was restarted, but new damage to high-voltage cables caused by an artillery bombardment forced the shutdown of the Avdiivka plant’s production again (Korrespondent.net, March 6). On January 31, Ukrainian authorities introduced an emergency situation in Avdiivka in response to the city’s electricity and water supply having been disrupted by separatist militants’ attacks (Donbass.ua, January 31). A partial evacuation of residents from this area took place in early February (5.ua, February 3).
Observers attribute this recent escalation of the conflict to several factors. One of them could reflect the Russia-backed militants’ continuation of systematic combat actions of varying intensity meant to exhaust the Ukrainian forces—described by the British military expert Glen Grant as “waves coming to shore” tactics. When a military force pursues such an approach, phases of intensive armed confrontation are interposed by phases of relative calm.
Yet, experience shows that periods of escalation in the Donbas conflict zone are often directly linked to the Kremlin’s political-diplomatic efforts—i.e., a desire to “raise the stakes” in its negotiations with leaders of European countries and the United States concerning the situation in eastern Ukraine. A similar increase in hostilities took place in earlier years, during key consultations within the framework of the Minsk ceasefire process and on the eve of meetings of the Normandy format (Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France). The current heightened periods of violence, therefore, may at least in part be connected to Washington having recently imposed new sanctions against Russia, as well as in response to the Ukrainian Parliament’s (Verkhovna Rada) request that the US Congress grant Ukraine “ally” status outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Unn.com.ua, March 22). With the Kremlin showing no genuine political will to implement its obligations under the Minsk agreements, Russian actions—both overt and concealed—to maintain the conflict in eastern Ukraine and to create zones of “controlled instability” continue (Segodnya.ua, March 27).
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has linked the intensification of the military confrontation to consequences of the trade blockade of the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (DPR, LPR), first initiated by groups of Ukrainian veterans acting without the government’s consent (Strana.ua, February 18; see EDM, February 28). In the aftermath of this blockading of railroads linking DPR-LPR territory with the rest of Ukraine, additional representatives of the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) popped up in the separatist regions. Moreover, a “humanitarian convoy” arrived in Donbas from Russia, which may have disguised the shipment of additional military equipment (Unian.net, March 1).
Notably, in the second half of March, sabotage-reconnaissance groups, sniper teams and other units from DPR-LPR completed training in Russian military training centers and in facilities in occupied Donbas organized by Moscow (Depo.ua, March 18). In this regard, attention should be drawn to a series of blasts, which occurred on March 23 at the 65th Arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces—the largest Ukrainian ammunition depot, located near the northeastern town of Balakliia. Given the fact that the housed munitions exploded simultaneously in several places at the arsenal facility, most experts agree this incident was the result of sabotage (Censor.net.ua, March 25). For safety reasons, the Ukrainian authorities evacuated local residents living within 10 kilometers of the arms depot (Censor.net.ua, March 23).
It is also worth noting the correlation between the mentioned areas where the fighting has escalated. In particular, Mariupol’s main metallurgical enterprises (Mariupol Metallurgical Combine “Ilyich” as well as the “Azovstal” plant) are the main consumers of coke from Avdiivka. But irregular coke supplies caused by months of artillery bombardment have had a serious negative impact on Mariupol’s iron and steel–producing enterprises (Apostrophe.ua, January 31). Experts believe that if the ACP remains offline for much longer, Ukrainian metallurgists could expect up to a 25 percent reduction in crude iron and steel production. Such cuts may cost the Ukrainian budget at least $2 billion in foreign currency earnings per year (Delovaya Stolica.ua, January 31). Moreover, these enterprises employ around 47,000 workers, so the social and economic consequences for the region due to jobs losses could be significant.
Taken together, the escalation in fighting near Avdiivka and Mariupol is, therefore, most likely connected to the Russian strategy of fomenting “controlled instability.” Tactically, it looks like the center of gravity for the Russian-separatist combined forces is near Avdiivka; but operationally, it is more focused on Mariupol—the key Ukrainian defensive point on the way to creating a “land corridor” from the Russian Federation to Crimea. This is why reinforcements of the latest upgraded T-72B3 tanks on the Russian border near Mariupol must be taken seriously—particularly in the context of possible Russian offensive scenarios (112.ua, March 24; Donbass.ua, March 27).
Azor...the last paragraph is the critical comment....Russian MoD has not come off of their offensive plans to take a Crimea land corridor which would achieve three core goals.....Originally Posted by Azor
1. protect the flanks of their Black Sea naval port
2. cut Ukraine from the sea and exports thus fully under Russain control
3. land corridor to Transnisteria and Moldavia...now with a prorussian government....
That actually was to be the main plan in 2014 but it got brutally stopped in the Odessa fire and the volunteer BNs holding the defense lines near Mariupol.....until they could get replaced in 2015 by well trained Marine infantry and UAF SF.....
Right now it is a war of attrition and the mercenaries are largely losing....the UAF has somehow figured out how to withstand massive Russian style artillery strikes and are weathering them relatively ok....still losing manpower though..
On the mercenary side they are losing manpower badly and going nowhere fast....
Since beginning of this year 65 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, 440 wounded in 6419 attacks. In March - almost half of casualties
94 attacks on Ukrainian positions yesterday, 10 soldiers were wounded
AND there is no war in Central Europe???
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-01-2017 at 08:04 AM.
BUT WAIT ...there is suppose to be the 30th "ceasefire".........
10:07 #Donetsk #Leninskyi #Obzhora: "Since it's ceasefire, that was probably 2 heavy UFOs flying out"
Outlaw 09:
The Crimean land corridor, or the Black Sea littoral to Transnistria scenarios, have been discussed ad nauseam since 2014. If Russia wanted to launch such an offensive, it can do so at any time. Shoulder insignias can be removed and "captured Ukrainian aircraft" can be refurbished and decorated with LPR/DPR roundels.
The Ukrainian Army, while capable of defeating the forces of Novorossiya, would not be capable of stopping a determined joint Russian offensive.
What holds Putin back is:
- Exclusion from SWIFT
- Provision of advanced arms from NATO to Ukraine e.g. ATGMs, mines, EM warfare systems, etc.
- The high probability of Russian occupation forces facing a insurgency
- Provoking large popular demonstrations against his rule in Russia
Unfortunately, Adm. Kabanenko has too much of a patriotic lens here.
Here is what is actually know.... in the early phase of the so called "separatist takeovers in eastern Ukraine they did in fact focus strategically and tactically on Odessa and Kharkiv....which only failed because Ukrainian nationalists rallied into stand alone poorly armed volunteer BNs and or in the case of Odessa brute physical force ie direct attacks on "separatists" and then burning out a key building they wanted to take over as the early "separatists" believed that in taking buildings it granted them legitimacy .................
Actually after a two solid years of fighting largely Russian frontline troops in the form of Spetsnaz and Russian tank units backed up by Russian artillery units UAF has been successful in negating any of their short lived ground offensives....or in the recent cases they come in after "separatist" forces have stalled in their offensives.
Coupled with UAF total rebuild and rearming of their forces and an expansion of their NG units they are capable of holding off and or inflicting critical loses on both Russian and separatist units...UNLESS and you are right UNLESS throws total military power on their side into the fight....
BUT they cannot due to then their entire narrative falling apart of "we ain't in Donbas", secondarily the massive financial cost well beyond what it is now and then you are correct NATO "defensive weapons start flowing" and then the "economic nuclear strike option".....removal from SWIFT.
If you recall a number of my far earlier comments just after the Crimean annexation and the actual Russian invasion force entered eastern Ukraine....I often stated pull the SWIFT trigger and you will get their attention.....and IMHO if it had been done then we would not be where we are today in a military stalemate of sorts...economically speaking Ukraine is now able to handle both the fighting and to further develop economically which was Putin's biggest miscalculation as he felt they would crash and burn under the weight of constant fighting...
WHY did the SWIFT trigger not get pulled....... Putin inherently read Obama correctly and knew he would not do it...if Obama had then Putin would have come to his senses and pulled back as it appears he really does not want a full scale war on his eastern borders....
Remember of number of Putin comments when SWIFT was being debated..he actually did threaten an armed "escalation"..but he always has threatened and that was all it ever was....really he has always been "escalating" thus nothing new there...
BUT as always Obama played his violin as Rome burned and did nothing...a number of NATO members led by France and Germany did in fact mention publicly that option as they attempted to get Putin's attention but were overridden by comments from Obama...Kerry and Niland....
To OutLaw 09 RE: Ukrainian Casualties
Thanks for these and Happy New Year.
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