I have been following the thread since Crimea, but I’m going by estimates from Philip Karber of the Potomac Foundation, who has covered Russia’s invasion extensively:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WA1rP5WGfY
I gather that he was referring
specifically to regular professional contract soldiers operating in BTGs, rather than the horde of Russian and local mercenaries of varying skills leavened with SF and intelligence operators (e.g. advisors and trainers).
Overall, I would expect that Russian regulars, irregulars and mercenaries
combined total some 15,000 to 17,000, or ~38% of the total insurgent fighting strength.
I also agree that the insurgents are incapable of mounting a successful major offensive (e.g. capturing Mariupol or Kharkiv) without direct and obvious Russian intervention, particularly with airpower and artillery support. Yet the insurgents seem more than capable of blunting a Ukrainian offensive until clandestine Russian reinforcements arrive to shore up the front.
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