Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
I have been following the thread since Crimea, but I’m going by estimates from Philip Karber of the Potomac Foundation, who has covered Russia’s invasion extensively: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WA1rP5WGfY

I gather that he was referring specifically to regular professional contract soldiers operating in BTGs, rather than the horde of Russian and local mercenaries of varying skills leavened with SF and intelligence operators (e.g. advisors and trainers).

Overall, I would expect that Russian regulars, irregulars and mercenaries combined total some 15,000 to 17,000, or ~38% of the total insurgent fighting strength.

I also agree that the insurgents are incapable of mounting a successful major offensive (e.g. capturing Mariupol or Kharkiv) without direct and obvious Russian intervention, particularly with airpower and artillery support. Yet the insurgents seem more than capable of blunting a Ukrainian offensive until clandestine Russian reinforcements arrive to shore up the front.
NOTE...during the recent quick UAF push to take "grey area" on the Minsk 2 frontline..actually in all Minsk 2 maps this grey area was actually Ukrainian..they were able to grab the area before the Russians and or mercenaries could react and then held it against all subsequent attacks to recapture it....much to the surprise of the Russians....