Reviewing the dossier in greater detail, it can be distilled into the following themes:

  • Trump sought to do business in Russia, but was rebuffed. He settled for sexual services instead
  • Trump declined financial inducements from the Kremlin in the way of "sweetener real estate business deals", but was compromised by a sex tape involving prostitutes and "golden showers"
  • Trump has been in contact with the Kremlin for 5-8 years plotting this campaign for the presidency
  • Trump has received Russian intelligence on the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton. In exchange, Trump has provided intelligence on Russian oligarchs residing in the US
  • Putin encouraged and supported Trump’s bid for the presidency in order to render the US more isolationist, weaken NATO and give Russia a freer hand internationally
  • Trump was pleased to have the election campaign revolve around US-Russian relations because he had extensive and corrupt business dealings in China and various emerging markets


My brief analysis

Aside from the well-worn accusations about Manafort, Stone, Cohen and Page, some of which are true (e.g. Manafort’s work for Yanukovych) and some of which are false (e.g. Cohen’s secret meeting in Prague), the only new allegations are as follows:

The supposed existence of a sex tape involving Trump and prostitutes
The assertion that Trump does not have business dealings in or illicit financial arrangements with Russia
rump’s supposed corrupt business dealings in China and other emerging markets

My Response

1. & 2. Unless the sex tape is made public, it’s existence is impossible to prove or disprove. Given that this is the major charge of the dossier and given that it conveniently fits with the Clinton narrative of Trump being misogynistic and Hillary’s campaigning on gender identity, it must be treated suspiciously. Supposedly the Kremlin needed the sex tape as leverage because Trump refused financial inducements, which is very curious because financial inducements would produce evidence of suspicious transactions. In addition, why would Trump require the services of Russian prostitutes, as opposed to American ones? Why would Trump pursue corrupt deals in other emerging markets but not Russia?

3. If Trump was engaging in corrupt transactions in China and other emerging markets (excluding Russia), why would Steele/Orbis not hunt that lead down? Why rely upon the say-so of various Russian informers who are not involved in those transactions? Surely the investigation could have been widened to encompass China and other countries…

In the final analysis, this dossier revolves around a sex tape, which is used as the honeypot (no pun intended) to lead the public to a mere regurgitation of allegations made against Trump and his advisors during his campaign against Clinton.

Given that The Interpreter, which is funded by RFE/RL and which is decidedly opposed to Putin, has dismantled the dossier’s credibility, there isn’t much to be gleaned by following the repetition in the mainstream media, which is more interested in the salaciousness of the story than its veracity.