Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON — One American commando was killed and three others were injured in a fierce firefight overnight with Qaeda militants in central Yemen, the military said Sunday morning. The raid was the first counterterrorism operation approved by President Trump since he took office nine days ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/29/w...tion.html?_r=0

[CrowBat]

Looks like it was a big-scale op:

- officially: U.S. Forces Kill 14 Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula Terrorists in Yemen.

- unofficially: US Special Operations air and ground assault takes out al Qaeda compound in Yemen - and Trump doesn't care about 'collateral damage'.

Large scale US Special Operations assault in Yemen leaves 1 US Navy SEAL dead, 3 Special Operations members wounded, upwards of 45 al Qaeda members dead, and 16 civilians killed.

(Graffic images!!!)

Not sure Yemenis are going to take this lightly (and they are the way to go when dealing with the AQAP in Yemen). AQAP, of course, even less so, especially since Awlaki's daughter was killed too (apparently by a bullet...): Commando dies in U.S. raid in Yemen, first military op OK'd by Trump

Eight-year old Anwar al-Awlaki [sic] - the daughter of U.S.-born Yemeni preacher and al Qaeda ideologue Anwar al-Awlaki, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2011 - was among the children who died in the raid, according to her grandfather.
"She was hit with a bullet in her neck and suffered for two hours. Why kill children? This is the new administration - it's very sad, a big crime," Nasser al-Awlaki told Reuters.

To make sure: I'm anything but a 'fan' of Awlaki... but executing children by head-shots... well, is at least likely to have insta-created about 50-100 new terrorists.

[CrowBat]

Houthis have attacked a Saudi frigate of al-Madinnah class (also known as Type 2000 class) off the coast of Hodeida, with three suicide boats or something of that kind, yesterday.

The ship turned away but was hit by one of 'means' in question, and damaged. According to Saudis, two crewmembers were killed, three injured, and the ship managed to limp back for repairs.

Here a video of the attack in question:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKWHgbpLD7g

What we can see first is the ship moving towards our right side. Then there's a cut, the ship turns left and yes, is hit in the stern.

Means, the skipper probably recognized the danger and tried to turn away from it. If so, then no surprise if casualties were kept to the minimum.

BTW, contrary to much commentary on the internet, this was no missile attack.

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like it was a big-scale op:

- officially: U.S. Forces Kill 14 Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula Terrorists in Yemen.

- unofficially: US Special Operations air and ground assault takes out al Qaeda compound in Yemen - and Trump doesn't care about 'collateral damage'.

(Graffic images!!!)

Not sure Yemenis are going to take this lightly (and they are the way to go when dealing with the AQAP in Yemen). AQAP, of course, even less so, especially since Awlaki's daughter was killed too (apparently by a bullet...): Commando dies in U.S. raid in Yemen, first military op OK'd by Trump


To make sure: I'm anything but a 'fan' of Awlaki... but executing children by head-shots... well, is at least likely to have insta-created about 50-100 new terrorists.

FIRST true failure of the Flynn/Trump/Bannon NSC...that led to a US SOF individual getting killed....AND then blaming the Obama WH for it....as they attempted to push this major failure away from them....

REMEMBER Flynn is this so called great JSOC intel type who says he can get things done....AND he wanted only members of his NSC to have looked down the barrel of a rifle.......THEN he..BANNON and Miller both white nationalists reorg the NSC kicking out the ODNI and JCoS which was A MAJOR mistake....

THERE is a saying in just not the military..."IF YOU SCREW UP---OWN IT"

WHAT THE HELL did Flynn and his merry band do for this planning which went extremely SOUTH....

Military official: "Almost everything went wrong" in raid that left SEAL, 8-year-old American girl, others dead.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/se...irst-trump-era...

WOAH: "Contrary to earlier reporting... the raid was Trump's 1st clandestine strike — not a holdover mission approved by President Obama"

Folks, this allegation is huge. Trump pulled the trigger on a most disastrous mission. US ####ed up, bigly. So how did it happen?

IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THESE POINTS

Trump's team led everyone to believe the Yemen op was planned before he got there. That happens. Now we're learning that's not true

If true it means Trump rushed the op on what looks like terrible intel, getting our soldiers shot up, a heli wrecked, a little girl dead

So what was the intel, what was the target, what did we know? A reckless op is bad for business, but it could also be a war crime

We're going to lose a lot more soldiers if this is how things are going. And a lot more little girls. and a lot more helicopters

Ops go bad, even well planned ops. If Obama planned it & Trump pulled the trigger that's a big problem. But if Trump planned it in a week?

We have a public that is ok with special forces & drones b/c it's not going to end like Iraq.

Do we have a president who is so cavalier?

IMPORTANT...FIRST MAJOR FAILURE in a very long time for ST6....
This was the famous Seal Team 6. We don't value their lives? We don't value who they might kill in the process?

My big point here - in war, #### happens. Presidents try to minimize this. IF this was planned in a week, that's no longer the case

VERY IMPORTANT

US Spec Ops Goals: get the job done, don't get killed, no unnecessary damage or death in the process. NONE of those goals met here

WAS ST6 ORDERED TO KILL CIVILIANS???...THIS is in fact a potential war crime if they were in fact ordered to deliberately kill anyone and that included children.....

IF SO ORDERED...WHO changed the ROE??????

I do NOT believe that US troops would deliberately kill a little girl. The orders were bad. So how did it happen?

BUT WAIT...Trump did in fact state a number of times he would order the killing of the families of terrorists...did he not?

BUT WAIT.....

He did say that. And the military said it would not execute illegal orders. And now he's president so now we have ROEs that are potentially war crimes....

REMEMBER...the Army has the right to refuse unlawful orders if those order violate the Geneva Convention and the Rules of Land Warfare....

BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...there is a little unknown Army regulation that states AFTER the My Lai massacre that clearly states that any Army member can refuse a lawful order if it is illegal and involves the killing of civilians.....

HAS NOW ST6 well known as trigger pullers BASICALLY gone rouge.....?????

OR did they in fact have direct orders from the CinC to violate the GC and international law and the LoLW....and in the face of My Lai.....

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW..REFERENCE those graphic photos of the killed eight year old WHICH clearly indicate a targeted head shot....

IMHO and one who has fired shots in anger in a war where civilians were constantly in the line of fire....they can in fact walk at anytime unannounced and unexpected into a fire fight.....but then the civilian usually has a number of wounds then...and actually they very rarely hit the head.....

A single shot to the head is a hallmark of SOF especially highly trained units such as ST6....

IF this is in fact true and under the existing ROE for both Iraq and AFG...THIS IS A WAR CRIME.....

UNLESS the ROE was changed...AND IF SO BY WHOM....??? If the US President and then seconded by the SecDef ...THEN MATTIS had a serious problem on his hands.....as does the current President....

As the targeted killing of civilians is a direct violation of the GC...Rule of Land Warfare.....AND ESPECIALLY since the SVN massacre at My Lai..by US troops.......WHICH ST6 apparently has forgotten their way the way after over 14 years of continuous war........

EXAMPLES of my personal combat experience as a SF soldier in VN..and who is highly decorated and wounded a number of times in that combat....as a lowly SGT.....

1. I had a complete Regular NVA company walk into my ambush and I could have completely wiped them out but in the beginning of their movement formation were approximately 30 civilians being largely forced to carry logistics supplies....we recognized them from a nearby village....withheld fire and allowed the NVA unit to move through...and never did we regret not firing....

2. In another ambush I triggered the ambush on two 13-14 year old boys in school uniforms...WHY both were carrying one each.45 in their pants and the older of the two a M1 carbine.

Under the GC both were considered enemy combatants...meaning carrying openly a weapon...having a uniform ...common school uniform but worn deep in the bamboo jungle not in a city/town or village and carrying valid VC IDs identifying them as scouts/couriers...

Did my hear ache for it...yes but the ROE and the GC were strictly held to....in both cases.....one case it saved lives in the other it cost lives....

War is never an equal opportunity event....BUT a common solider is required as much as he or she can do..to minimize the lost of civilian life....in order to in the end save one's own morals.....and then live with the results for the rest of your as no one else can help you in the end....

[OUTLAW 09]

We all need to fully understand that the eight year old girl killed by ST6 was in fact a US citizen.....

So did the Bannon/Rump NSC authorize the actual killing of a US citizen....?

[CrowBat]

I have no trace of clue how relevant this might be, but that 'itch in my guts' if you like, tells me something like this: the new US president is a cold-blooded businessman, first and foremost. Not that I would have something against them or whatever, but it's the way they think - and thus bring their decisions.

At least I wouldn't be surprised if that thinking goes this way: 'OK, so, members of forces like ST6 are pros; they joined knowing very well what are they facing, and what kind of things they might be ordered to do; they swore a very clear oath, too; so, let's put our tax-payer's bucks to some use - and use the ST6 for what it exists for. Nothing personal, it's just business.'

[OUTLAW 09]

I have no trace of clue how relevant this might be, but that 'itch in my guts' if you like, tells me something like this: the new US president is a cold-blooded businessman, first and foremost. Not that I would have something against them or whatever, but it's the way they think - and thus bring their decisions.

At least I wouldn't be surprised if that thinking goes this way: 'OK, so, members of forces like ST6 are pros; they joined knowing very well what are they facing, and what kind of things they might be ordered to do; they swore a very clear oath, too; so, let's put our tax-payer's bucks to some use - and use the ST6 for what it exists for. Nothing personal, it's just business.'

Crowbat..here is the problem now for Trump....if an actual targeted killing of a US citizen occurred....then since Obama strict federal law now dictates a process similar t the FISA Court that evidence must be presented that the individual is a "clear and present danger to the US"......

It will be extremely hard for Trump to argue that an eight year old "is a clear and present danger"......

MY concern is the use of ST6 now as a killing machine for civilians ..we have seen this already with Russian air force personnel in their bombing of civilians with total disregard....and the West says and said nothing....

Regardless of what Trump thinks in his view of an authoritarian US...there are limits to Presidential rule...

BTW...did Trump personally write the condolence letter to the family of the killed ST6 soldier...highly doubt it...not his style....Obama wrote every single letter as he stated it reminded him of the cost of his decisions...

Trump talks about the great military BUT dodged the draft FOUR times for VN..simple does not care.

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like it was a big-scale op:

- officially: U.S. Forces Kill 14 Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula Terrorists in Yemen.

- unofficially: US Special Operations air and ground assault takes out al Qaeda compound in Yemen - and Trump doesn't care about 'collateral damage'.

(Graffic images!!!)

Not sure Yemenis are going to take this lightly (and they are the way to go when dealing with the AQAP in Yemen). AQAP, of course, even less so, especially since Awlaki's daughter was killed too (apparently by a bullet...): Commando dies in U.S. raid in Yemen, first military op OK'd by Trump


To make sure: I'm anything but a 'fan' of Awlaki... but executing children by head-shots... well, is at least likely to have insta-created about 50-100 new terrorists.

There is an interesting development within the Bannon/Flynn NSC driven FIRST Trump AQ raid that if successful he would have clearly boasted about......

BUT WAIT....did we hear out of this Bannon/Flynn NSC anything concerning the raid...nothing until it was leaked via MSM.....

AND did Trump even recognize in personal comments the death of a ST6 member and the injuries of other ST6 members....IT took the SecDef to honor them....

Notice not a single tweet to honor the SEAL....

IF one takes the Yemen number of killed civilians it is in excess of 50...granted we could say who trusts Yemen numbers BUT lately when the US airstrikes in Syria against IS actually kill large numbers of civilians what we get from the DoD is..."we will investigate" and then let everything drop unless social media investigative source confirm those numbers THEN DoD gets active again....

So until DoD can confirm the opposite 50 civilians were in fact killed...AN unusually large number.....

Has the ROE been changed and if so by WHOM?

SO now during resulting failure period of this Yemen raid what did we get from the Trump and Bannon WH.....a total series of FUBARs all designed to distract from the ST6 raid....Muslim ban......bashing Democrats....firing the Acting AG.....Marshall Service disobeying a Federal court order....and now the decision for the SC pulled forward several days earlier than planned......

BUT anything about the raid coming out of the Trump/Bannon

WH.....absolutely totally nothing....

WHY distraction from the Bannon/Flynn NSC...because this raid was a total and complete failure.....

[CrowBat]

AND did Trump even recognize in personal comments the death of a ST6 member and the injuries of other ST6 members....IT took the SecDef to honor them....

This is something one can't expect from Trump - for reasons I mentioned above. 'It's business, nothing personal'.

BTW, as expected: Oblabla didn't aprove this raid, but Trump did. See here: U.S. military probing more possible civilian deaths in Yemen raid

...The U.S. officials said the extremists’ base had been identified as a target before the Obama administration left office on Jan. 20, but then-President Barack Obama held off approving a raid ahead of his departure.
...

Reason:

...“The decision was made ... to leave it to the incoming administration, partly in the hope that more and better intelligence could be collected,” that official said.
...

I would say that it's perfectly clear: with Trump in power, we can expect more of the same.

[AdamG]

The death of Chief Petty Officer William Owens came after a chain of mishaps and misjudgments that plunged the elite commandos into a ferocious 50-minute firefight that also left three others wounded and a $75 million aircraft deliberately destroyed. There are allegations — which the Pentagon acknowledged on Wednesday night are most likely correct — that the mission also killed several civilians, including some children. The dead include, by the account of Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, the 8-year-old daughter of Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born Qaeda leader who was killed in a targeted drone strike in 2011.
Mr. Trump on Sunday hailed his first counterterrorism operation as a success, claiming the commandos captured “important intelligence that will assist the U.S. in preventing terrorism against its citizens and people around the world.” A statement by the military’s Central Command on Wednesday night that acknowledged the likelihood of civilian casualties also said that the recovered materials had provided some initial information helpful to counterterrorism analysts. The statement did not provide details.
But the mission’s casualties raise doubts about the months of detailed planning that went into the operation during the Obama administration and whether the right questions were raised before its approval. Typically, the president’s advisers lay out the risks, but Pentagon officials declined to characterize any discussions with Mr. Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/w...ions.html?_r=0

[OUTLAW 09]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/w...ions.html?_r=0

Open source survey of @realDonaldTrump's first special forces raid in Yemen

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...aid-in-yemen/#

[davidbfpo]

From an IISS Strategic Comment on the Yemeni Civil War and from the conclusion, cited in part:

The Saudi government’s military campaign is believed to be costing it US$200 million per day, and Riyadh has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel. But the campaign is popular at home, which to a degree offsets scepticism about the broad domestic economic restructuring set in motion by Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Emiratis, for their part, can sustain their effort without much difficulty, and have relatively extensive combat experience from their participation in coalition operations in Afghanistan and Libya. The Houthis do not appear inclined to de-escalate the conflict.

Link (mainly behind a pay wall):http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...yemen-war-ce22

Plus an overview (contemporary and historical) from Hamid Hussein, our occasional correspondent, on the attachment.

[SWJ Blog]

Misplaced Blame on Trump for Yemen Raid Ignores Deeper Problems

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[CrowBat]

From an IISS Strategic Comment on the Yemeni Civil War and from the conclusion, cited in part:Link (mainly behind a pay wall):http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...yemen-war-ce22

Some nitpicking here:

...In the 1960s, the Saudis fought a brutal war against a 70,000-strong Egyptian expeditionary force deployed by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, with Soviet support, to overthrow the royalist Mutawakkilite government in Yemen and replace it with the left-wing rulers of the Yemen Arab Republic. With overt support from Jordan and covert help from the United Kingdom, the Saudis ultimately repelled the Egyptians...

This is simply nonsense.

For most of that war, the Egyptians had about 40,000 troops deployed in Yemen. It was only for a short while in 1964 they deployed more, and then their logistics system proved barely able of supporting as many. As anybody writing assessments of this kind should know: keeping 70,000 combat troops supplied in a country where there is very little water to find and even less food to buy, and most of roads are under constant insurgent attacks, is anything but easy.

Perhaps more importantly:
- Jordanian 'support' for Saudi 'effort' in Yemen collapsed already in October 1962 - due to defection of 8 pilots (together with one Dove transport and four Hawker Hunter fighter-bombers) to Egypt (for detailed reference see Hawker Hunters at War); while

- actual 'Saudi' effort through most of the war was run by the British, and only financed by the Saudis (for detailed reference see The War that Never Was), and

- a lot of that effort saw Israeli and Rhodesian involvement (in form of provision of transport aircraft that were para-dropping supplies for Royalists inside Yemen).

Whatever, crucial point is: in military sense, Egyptians were not defeated. For them, the war ended with a 'disengagement' similar to that of the USA from Vietnam, in September-October 1967.

Certainly enough, Immediately afterwards, the Royalists launched an offensive on Sana'a, which resulted in a 70-days-long siege. However, during that siege, the Soviets launched their first military intervention in the Middle East ever (that as in November 19679. They delivered MiG-17s, Il-28s and plenty of other arms to the Republicans, helped them lift that siege and push the Royalists away from the capital.

Eventually, the war ended with a cease-fire in 1970 - and with these 'leftist Republicans' in power in Sana'a. I.e. the party fought by the Royalists, supported by the British and financed by the Saudis, was in power. Indeed, for most of the early 1970s, that Republican government was receiving support from the USSR (although, Soviets subsequently began to prefer cooperation with Marxists from Southern Yemen). Therefore, and for all practical purposes, the Saudis lost that war. Worse yet: the British lost it too - and that not only because they were forced to leave Aden/Federation of South Arabia, in 1967, but even more so because:

- The Federation of South Arabia subsequently transformed into the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (i.e. South Yemen, which was a Yemeni variant of North Korea), a staunch Soviet ally until 1990;

- which in turn prompted Saudis to start financing local Islamic fundamentalists, with far-reaching repercussions that should be known to everybody nowadays. With other words, hailing Saudi (i.e. British) effort there is a typically short-sighted way of commenting that war (Yemen Civil War of 1962-1970).

Sigh... and that was just the introduction-paragraph... makes me wonder what other kind of sound conclusions can be expected in the rest of that file...

EDIT: ah, it's a 'pay-to-read' file. Sorry, I strongly doubt it's worth even 5 bucks.

[CrowBat]

Plus an overview (contemporary and historical) from Hamid Hussein, our occasional correspondent, on the attachment.

A review of this one:

Contrary to what Mr. Hamid wrote, the Yemeni crisis did not emerge when 'Shi'a backed Houthi rebels took control of large swaths of the territory' (i.e. in 2014-2015): it began already back in 2004.

The story began in 1990, when Saudis expulsed about 1 million of Yemeni guest-workers because of what they (and the USA) perceived as Saleh's support for Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Now, these 1 million of Yemenis came back home around the same time few other things happened, too. Between others,

- a) several thousands of Yemenis that fought in Afghanistan came back home;

- b) the first Zaidi generation grew up in a country that was no Imamate/Mutawakkilite Kingdom, and

- c) a number of Zaidi scholars returned from religious studies in Sudan and the UAE (not from Iran, as usually explained).

Put together: there was suddenly plenty of youngsters around, who realized they can read and write, can travel, can see that other countries were coming forward at a much faster pace than Yemen, and that something is badly wrong with their own state (until 1994 this was North Yemen, and under the control of President Saleh already since 1978). The same youngsters also realized that plenty of stuff taught to them about Islam by tribal leaders and preachers were simply wrong.

A combined result of all of this was that traditional tribal organization of the Zaidi society began falling apart (that of the Sunnis, i.e. the 'Shafi' as the Sunnis are called in Yemen was already in complete disorder since earlier times): instead of tribes, ideologically-motivated groups began to dominate. That's how 'Houthis' - a family that was entirely unimportant at earlier times - became something like 'important'.

Now, Zaidis happen to live in the part of Yemen where trade with arms is a part of everyday life - just like trade with groceries, wheat, cattle etc. But, when Saleh learned about Houthis 'buying weapons', he flipped out (primarily out of concern about a possible 'armed uprising', and although there was never a trace of Houthis preparing something of that kind) and did a major mistake: he launched a military attack on Houthis, in 2004.

Sure, this attack was successful in so far that it bagged the first Houthi leader. However, it broke all the fundamental rules of the traditional Yemeni conflict, foremost between which is extensive use of fierce semantics prior to the armed conflict, in order to actually prevent an armed conflict. That's what Yemenis used to consider as 'civilised' and 'diplomatic' behaviour. With other words: Yemenis used to threaten, insult etc. each other, much more than they used to kill each other.

However, through such an action, Saleh presented himself as a 'wild barbarian' to most of youngster Houthis - and this in addition to already presenting himself as 'ruling with support from Saudis and corrupt merchants'. Even then, the Houthis didn't give up trying: in 2005, their new leader spent two months in Sana'a, trying to meet Saleh. Without success: Saleh ignored him completely - and thus definitely created an impression of himself as somebody with whom there can be no negotiations. That is what not only prompted Houthis to really launch an armed uprising, but also drove thousands of other Zaidis into their group, and then resulted in so-called 'Six Sa'ada Wars'. Fought 2004-2010, all of these resulted in severe defeats of the government. Eventually, Saleh was left with little other choice but to depend on the militia of the Moslem-Brotherhood-connected Islah Party to keep the Houthis from marching on Sana'a.

Then came 2011, and Saleh was forced (primarily by the Saudis, and primarily through defection of Islah-Party-dominated parts of the military) to resign. In his place, the Saudis installed their puppet Hadi, who had absolutely no political base, nor widespread support (indeed: Hadi was unknown to majority of the Yemeni population). Nevertheless, Hadi then completely reorganized the military, ripping it apart in the process. So much so that his decisions caused a series of mutinies (nearly a half of the Yemeni Army was on the streets through most of 2012 and early 2013). Ignoring all the criticism, and against better advice, he then also embarked on reorganizing Yemen into a federation of six Provinces.

Just as the latter decision caused the next political crisis, in mid-2014, Saudis also stopped supporting the Moslem Brotherhood, i.e. declared it a terrorist organization. Now, Saudis did so for reasons related to developments in Egypt. However, their decision resulted in cancellation of all the support for Yemeni MBs too - although these, through the Islah Party - were something like the sole (even if reluctant) supporters of the Hadi's government.

Unsurprisingly, the Saudi decision back-fired: left without money, the Islah Party militia couldn't keep the Houthis in check any more, while the military was already in a state of chaos, plus deeply split between the Islah- and Saleh-supporters. With other words: it didn't fight either. Houthis thus found their way into Sana'a wide open.

This was anything but a 'disastrous move' by the Houthis (equalling them with the 'Zaidi Shia' minority is, sorry, dilletantic; there are still at least as many Zaidis fighting against Houthis, as those that joined them): it was perfectly logical. After all, Houthis had their own designs, one of which was to remove that incompetent, Saudi-supported corrupt gang ruling from Sana'a. With their primary enemies out of the way and in a state of chaos, why not take over de-facto without a fight? Who wouldn't do what they did?

Author's insistence on use of expressions like 'Zaidi Shi'a minority' and/or 'Shi'a rebel movement' is entirely wrong in place. Not only are there still at least as many Zaidis fighting against Houthis (i.e. it is wrong to equal Houthis to all of Zaidis), but there are also plenty of Shafis (Sunnis) fighting for Houthis, or at least for those Saleh-loyal army units that sided with Houthis.

With other words, it's entirely wrong to consider this war a purely sectarian conflict between Zaidis and everybody else; it is also wrong to call it a 'proxy war' between 'Iran-supported Shi'a' and 'Saudi-supported elements of Yemeni society', too: large segments of the Yemeni-parts of the coalition fighting against Houthi/Saleh are Salafists, Marxists, Southern Separatists, tribes that lost ground due to Houthi attacks etc., etc., etc. - simply 'plenty of people' who are not the least eager to fight 'for Saudis' or even 'for Hadi', but are fighting for their own designs.

And if anybody made a 'disastrous move', then the Saudis. Not one of their 'moves' regarding Yemen since 1962 was a sound decision, and their decision to launch a military intervention in 2015 was no exception from that rule: all were short-sighted, and only destabilizing Yemen ever more. Now they've managed to throw the country into such a chaos that it's unlikely to recover for another 15-20 years.

This is the crucial point, and something that should finally be mentioned by somebody in the public. Without realizing, accepting and admitting this mistake, Saudis can pay another dozen of billions to various of their advisers around the world, and still nothing is going to change.

[OUTLAW 09]

Is now CENTCOM attempting to protect the WH NSC who announced their planned raid into Yemen was a great success generating intelligence that was important....NOT the utter failure that many are pointing to.....
U.S. Central Command
✔
@CENTCOM
#alQaeda bomb making video captured in Jan. 28 raid on #AQAP operations/logistics hub in #Arabian Peninsula

http://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-R...aid-in-yemen/#

BUT WAIT...from 2003 until 2010 QJBR...then AQI..then IS and the other mainline Iraqi Sunni insurgent groups....IAI....AAS...to al Duri's Naqshbandi Sufi Order PUBLISHED literally tens of such IED bomb making videos and pamphlets in pdf format....AND no one seemed to have minded....TO INCLUDE videos on how to make explosives......

NOW a single video makes headlines..why is that?????

[CrowBat]

Why? Because author of that release knows nothing about earlier cases.

***********

But wait: the pah-ty only just began...

Yemeni officials say warships shell al Qaeda positions, U.S. denies involvement

...
The naval attacks appear to be part of an intensifying campaign against one of the most active branches of the Islamist militant network.
"Ships fired several missiles towards the al-Maraqisha mountains, where al Qaeda elements are based. The ships are widely believed to be Americans," said one official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

"We have received no information on the outcome of the shelling."
...

The al-Maraqisha mountains are a key al Qaeda stronghold in southern Yemen. Militants took refuge there last year after Yemeni government forces, backed by Arab coalition aircraft, drove them from the cities of Zinjibar and Jaar.
...

U.S. Warships Target al-Qaeda Stronghold in Abyan

An al-Qaeda stronghold in Yemen’s Abyan province was targeted on Thursday most likely by U.S. warships, four days after a U.S. operation against the organization in central Yemen, tribal sources said.
...

al-Qaeda spreads again in three towns of Abyan province

A Yemeni official and tribal sources said that fighters of al-Qaeda fighters have taken control again in three towns in the Abyan province south of the country.
The security official said that the withdrawal of the security forces from these areas was a protest following the delayed payment of salaries, which facilitated the entry of fighters into Lauder, Shukrah and Aked areas in Abyan.
The official added that the security forces are suffering from a shortage of resources, especially weapons, to confront the enemies. Sources said that al-Qaeda fighters set up checkpoints on the streets in Lauder and blew up two security buildings using explosives.

This comes as warships, believed to be American, bombed strongholds of al-Qaeda in the mountainous area south of the country.
The source confirmed that the ships fired several missiles towards al-Marakichah mountain where al-Qaeda elements are stationed.
...

At the same time, seems this UAE-YNA operation in Mocha is continuing in direction of Hodeida. At least Hadi is promising there will be no ceasefire before that crucial port is captured (and... cough & sigh... 'last venue of'...cough...'Iranian arms smuggling for Houthis is cut off'... sorry, always suffering bronchitis and asthma attacks at that point...).

[CrowBat]

Damn coughing... missed this one because of it:

US sends Navy destroyer to Yemen

...The United States has placed a Navy destroyer off the coast of Yemen to protect waterways from Houthi militia aligned with Iran, two US officials said on Friday, amid heightened tension between Washington and Tehran.

The USS Cole arrived in the vicinity of the Bab al-Mandab Strait off southwestern Yemen where it will carry out patrols including escorting vessels, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
...

Remember USS Cole...? Yup, that's how the part of the AQ story in the conscience of most of the public began, back in 2001.

Though, if Cole is really there 'to protect waterways from Houthi militia aligned with Iran', then the US should better fire 90% of personnel of something like 17 different intelligence agencies (and about 50 different associated private intelligence companies working for these). Pronto. Namely, in such case the US intel does not know that the Houthi/Saleh coalition fired all of its stocks of C.801s dry.

[SWJ Blog]

Pentagon Argues Value of Yemen Raid Using Old Evidence

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