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Thread: Syria in 2017 (January-April)

  1. #741
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Well, hold on.

    Both Arab nationalism and Sunni Arab fundamentalism emerged around the same time and place. These movements were caused by the stagnation and decline of the Ottoman Empire as well as European and Christian ascendancy, including colonialism as well as intellectual influences.

    The West, including the United States, wanted stability and access to oil, irrespective of whether these conditions were created by monarchs or dictators, Western-oriented advisors or fundamentalist clerics, nationalists or supra-nationalists.

    Yet if elements of liberal democracy existed in the Arab world, it was because they were imposed by monarchs and dictators at gunpoint. When Arab nationalism was clearly victorious over Sunni Arab fundamentalism, its energies were wasted on attacking Israel and on establishing kleptocratic dictatorships that were harsher than the monarchies they had originally replaced.

    There is no "model" democratic Muslim-majority country, let alone an Arab one. Perhaps post-revolutionary Tunisia will be the first, but that remains to be seen.

    The moderate Muslim Sunni Arab democrats are simply too small in number and/or too weak. This is also true of Syria. Even assuming that the Free Syrian Army is comprised fully of moderate and democratic Sunni Arabs, would it have the strength to defeat Assad (without Iranian and Russian support), defeat Nusra, defeat Daesh and impose stability on the country? Or is victory a long-shot and even then, the FSA would be dealing with a disruptive insurgency?

    As for the disease, consider that the Western Allies imposed liberal democracy in Germany, Italy, Greece, and Japan, and restored it in France, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg.

    Despite considerable Western influence and support (material, organizational), liberal democracy took over 30 years to develop in South Korea, and over 40 in Taiwan, Portugal and Spain.

    It was a monumental effort not to have these various countries come under totalitarian rule, and the Arab countries are culturally far more distant from the West than any of the aforementioned...
    What keeps getting mostly forgotten by western MSM and here outside of CrowBat is the simple fact that where FSA has had long term control a form of basic democracy has in fact taken hold with for the ME relatively free and fair local elections..and local governments have in fact been ale to provide the basic community needs and establish a relatively good functioning school system built around secularism.

    The key for the ME is actually a Islamic government form built around secularism...that is the path that Tunisia is taking and working hard at making work...coupled with their first attempts at good governance and the rule of law....

    Regardless of what one thinks about Turkey right now..that is what drove Turkey almost into the EU before Erdogan jerked to the right nationalism AKP built around an true Islamic state with no secularism....

    In Muslim areas that are largely secular you find a high level of tolerance of other religions as well...

  2. #742
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Well, hold on.

    Both Arab nationalism and Sunni Arab fundamentalism emerged around the same time and place. These movements were caused by the stagnation and decline of the Ottoman Empire as well as European and Christian ascendancy, including colonialism as well as intellectual influences.
    Strictly speaking, Sunni Arab fundamentalism pre-dated the raise of Arab nationalism.

    Fundamentalism can be traced back to at least the Mahdists of Sudan and spread of Sauds and Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia, of 19th Century. In turn, at least the ideology of the latter can be traced back to the 14th Century.

    Arab nationalism developed in Syria and then Egypt, of the 19th Century.

    The West, including the United States, wanted stability and access to oil, irrespective of whether these conditions were created by monarchs or dictators, Western-oriented advisors or fundamentalist clerics, nationalists or supra-nationalists.
    It could even be said the USA insisted on local self-determination, while British and French blindly followed their imperialist ambitions and screwed up wherever they only could (see findings of the King-Crane Commission and various of President Willson's demands from 1919-1920 and compare these with Sykes-Picot agreement and all the related nonsense).

    So far, 'everything's clear'. What really went wrong was what happened afterwards. The British and the French created a number of states that simply can't survive on their own (Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, just for the start), the USA then took over the role of 'protector' of most of these (plus Saudi Arabia and GCC states etc.), while other states were intentionally destabilized (see Yemen).

    Of course, all of this supposedly 'in interest of peace and stability', i.e. 'maintenance of status quo' - which is the biggest piece of nonsense in the entire drama. Namely, one can't 'maintain peace and stability' if the fundaments of the situation are oppressive dictatorships. These are only a guarantee for anything else but 'peace and stability'.

    Yet if elements of liberal democracy existed in the Arab world, it was because they were imposed by monarchs and dictators at gunpoint.
    Sorry Azor, but this is really nonsense.

    Demands for liberal democracies came into being parallel with revival of the Arab nationalism in the 19th Century. This is obvious in Syrian Arabs forcing Ottoman Sultan to establish a parliament, Egyptians forcing their king to establish a parliamentary monarchy...hell, even the British-imposed king of Kingdom of Syria (existent but never officially acknowledged by the West in period 1919-1920) introduced a parliamentary monarchy etc.

    Problem is that most of related developments were never reported in the West at all - or if, that related reporting remains entirely unknown in the West. Just for example: theoretically, I can't know but I'm still 100% sure and perfectly comfortable to say, you have never read Michael Provence's 'The Great Syrian Revolt'.

    When Arab nationalism was clearly victorious over Sunni Arab fundamentalism, its energies were wasted on attacking Israel...
    Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong, all the way.

    When this happened (see Egypt of 1952-1955) this Arab nationalism was moronically declared for 'dangerous' and 'destabilizing' and attacked and invaded or involved in nonsensical wars at every possible opportunity.

    Nasser was anything but perfect, and certainly a dictator, but few things about him are not 100% but 1000% certain. He smashed the Moslem Brotherhod (i.e. Sunni fundamentalism), and certainly did not want a war with Israel (like none of Arab governments of the 1950s wanted any): he entered peace negotiations with Sharet's government, requested economic aid from the USA, and the British to treat him as equal. What happened in return? USA tried to force him to join a NATO-like METO; British PM cited him to the British embassy on his arrival in Cairo, and Ben Gurion and his 'Hawks' (foremost Dayan) instigated one massacre of Arab civilians after the other, plus a campaign of terror attacks in Egypt (see Lavon Affair) - and publicly preparing a war.

    What should Nasser have done in that situation?

    Put up a white flag and capitulate?

    He requested arms from the USA and the UK in order to protect Egypt. He offered an alternative to the METO in form of a defence pact between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria. And even then, he did so within the frame of negotiations related to economic development of his country - i.e. the construction of the High Dam in Aswan.

    What did he get in return? British continued BS-itting and did their best to spoil that Egypt-SA-Syria pact - simply because it was not their idea; Americans conditioned their aid with basing rights for their military - while France meanwhile entered direct military cooperation with Israel, including deliveries of jet fighters and development of nuclear weapons, and Israel reinforced its attacks on Egypt (and Jordan). In a situation where he just concluded negotiations for a British withdrawal from Egypt, there was simply no way Nasser could accept such conditions. That's what even Dulles said to Eisenhower.

    Means: he was left without solution but to order arms from Soviets. And when he did that, he was simply declared for 'Soviet client', although everybody - but especially the USA and the British - knew very well that he was a staunch anti-Communist too (and has completely destroyed the Egyptian Communist Party).

    So, instead of continuing negotiations with him, the USA and the UK cancelled their aid for the High Dam, leaving Nasser without solution but to nationalise the Suez Canal in order to finance that project.

    BTW, by that time Ben Gurion was already neck-deep in preparations to launch another war, i.e. a land-grab. And in that situation he was contacted with the British and French that were keen to remove Nasser, i.e. invade Egypt and 're-occuppy' the Suez Canal...

    This is actual flow of developments there, this is what actually happened, i.e. this is all and undisputedly supported by official documentation - in the USA, in Israel, in Egypt, in the ex-USSR and in the ex-Czechoslovakia.

    This is, however, anything but the usual legend we've been taught by the media ever since.

    That was the last - golden opportunity - to sort out the things in the Middle East and really create an atmosphere of 'peace and stability'. Instead, Arabs were attacked and attacked, again and again. They were taught that their nationalist governments wouldn't be tollerated, that their anti-Communist governments would be attacked, that their pro-Soviet governments would be attacked, that their monarchies would be de-stabilized etc., etc., etc.

    Nothing was 'good enough' for the West. What a surprise then, they returned to fundamentalism...

    And BTW: just because you (don't worry, you're not alone: 99% of other observers of this war are doing the same) prefer to ignore over 400 local councils in Syria - all of them now governed by freely elected representatives and, of course, functioning in areas NOT ruled by Assad (but all the time terrorised by his thugs) - it doesn't mean they do not exist, or are not functional or not important.

    EDIT: I've posted a collection of links describing their organization, elections, functions and every-day work at ‘Good Guys’ in Syria: Collection of Links about Civic Authorities. Please, kindly inform yourself.
    Last edited by CrowBat; 03-03-2017 at 07:43 AM.

  3. #743
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    W. #Aleppo: pro-Regime forces started again offensive on Rebel positions, from Al-Zahra District to Suq Al-Gibs after last attacks failed

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    I've typed my answer to Azor, posted above, in quite some rush, this morning - and also addressed only something like 50% of what he said. Thus, here something like 'Part 2'...

    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    The West, including the United States, wanted stability...
    Wrong (too).

    The West does want oil, but anything else than stability.

    How do I come to the idea to say something of that kind? Not because I would be some kind of leftist (or 'liberal' as you call them in the USA). But because there is so much evidence for this. Read Curtis' 'The Unpeople', Provence's 'The Great Arab Revolt', Green's 'Taking Sides', or Barr's 'A Line in the Sand'... if nothing else: get yourself a copy of David's 'Arabs & Israel for Beginners'.

    You're going to find literal loads of examples, really no end of instances where all possible Western powers did everything possible to destabilize even friendly governments. Best of all: all these works are more than 'well-supported' by official documentation. Actually, they are based on official documentation.

    Yet if elements of liberal democracy existed in the Arab world, it was because they were imposed by monarchs and dictators at gunpoint.
    There is not a single Arab monarch that ever imposed liberal democracy - at gun point or in any other fashion. There are few upon whom some democracy was imposed by certain 'bimbos' (see Jordan and Kuwait).

    There is no "model" democratic Muslim-majority country...
    Man, Azor... I refuse to believe you're this clueless.

    Even if we limit that list to 'functioning and practicising democracies', i.e. take out countries like Morocco or Pakistan... but have you ever checked the demographic composition of democracies like Bangladesh (Islam = state religion, majority of population Moslems), Indonesia (Islam = one of 6 state religions, majority of population Moslems), Malayasia (Islam = state religion), Tunisia... (do I need to go on)...?

    Where's the problem? They're not producing enough jihadists for the media you follow to pay attention?

    The moderate Muslim Sunni Arab democrats are simply too small in number and/or too weak. This is also true of Syria.
    Wrong. Simply wrong.

    It's wrong whether in regards of Islam in general, or in the specific case of Syria. Majority of fundamentalists or extremists in Syria have been imported - and then primarily by 'private interest groups' of such 'staunch/most important non-NATO US allies' like Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, etc.

    Sure, the leader of the HTS (ex-JFS, ex-JAN, ex-AQI etc.) is a Syrian. And yes, he fought in Iraq on Zargawi's side, and was arrested by Assad when returning to Syria. But, before that, he was sent by Assad to Iraq to join the AQI and fight the USA, and after that he was further extremised in Assad's jail - only to then be unleashed upon Syrian secularists.

    And, what a surprise (I guess), over the last six years not only his JAN/JFS/HTS is all the time attacking Syrian secularists (and this with wholehearted support of Turkey, Qatar, Kuwait, USA etc.) but so also the Assadists, the IRGC, the Russians, and the Daesh are attacking them (Syrian secularists) first and foremost. Everybody is united in attacking them - and the West in ignoring them.

    But, these damn, f...g Syrian secularists just don't want to die away! Instead, they dared organizing free elections for 400 of their local councils, they dared kicking out the JAN/JFS/HTS out of Idlib City, they dare protesting against Assadists whenever Russians stop bombing them, and meanwhile they were as brazen as to write a new constitution of a pluralist, tolerant, and secularist Syria.

    Man, considering the history of the US and European foreign policy in general, it's no wonder our governments don't want to even hear about them. I'm actually just waiting for such like Trump to finally nuke them - or let Putler do so.

    Even assuming that the Free Syrian Army is comprised fully of moderate and democratic Sunni Arabs, would it have the strength to defeat Assad (without Iranian and Russian support), defeat Nusra, defeat Daesh and impose stability on the country? Or is victory a long-shot and even then, the FSA would be dealing with a disruptive insurgency?
    Thanks to all the efforts of the USA, the EU, IRGC, Russia, Assadists and all the other of consorts, this is meanwhile such a distant possibility, that I do not believe it's ever going to happen.

    Namely, let's - just for the sake of this discussion - say: some kind of wonder does happen, and somebody there starts supporting the FSyA. For them to defeat Assad and then all the extremists gangs in the country, i.e. with the war and end it, somebody would also have to:

    - seriously curb, if not outright block Qatari, Kuwaiti, Saudi, Turkish etc. support for jihadists;

    - block the IRGC's military intervention in Syria (at best force the IRGC out of Syria);

    - block the Hezbollah's military intervention in Syria (or kick them out), and

    - force the Russians to withdraw.

    In your opinion: who is in a position to do all of this?

    I do not know anybody.

    Even if, say (and still: just for the sake of discussion) Trump would be serious about all the nonsense he's babbling without an end: he might be 'anti-Iran', but he and his aides are searching for Iranians in Yemen (where there are none), while entirely unable to find them in Syria. Means: they are either unable of connecting the dots, or can't do so because of their own commercial interests. But foremost: he's entirely out of position to tell the Gulf Arabs to go f... themselves somewhere else (than in Syria). And, how shall he kick the Russians out, please?

    Fact is: the situation in Syria is the way it is because there is nobody - and I'll repeat this to emphasise: NOBODY - interested in a pluralist, democratic and free Syria.

    Except Syrians, of course (and bar Assadists). But, who and why should anybody care about Syrians?

    It was a monumental effort not to have these various countries come under totalitarian rule, and the Arab countries are culturally far more distant from the West than any of the aforementioned...
    And plenty of other countries around the world did so on their own, and without any kind of 'monumental efforts'. So what?

    They 'don't matter because we don't know about them'...?
    Last edited by CrowBat; 03-03-2017 at 01:16 PM.

  5. #745
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    CrowBat...this is major.....he was being accompanied though by Spetsnaz from which we have not heard about any of their loses in the IED strike..there were loses but announced occurring in the Aleppo area....

    Russian General blown up in IED blast in Palmyra last week - report
    Russian general-mayor Petr Milyukhin seriously wounded in Palmyra a week ago ...lost two legs and one eye so it appears the vehcle are physically targeted...
    General was chief of training/study of Russian Western Military District(located from Voronezh to Murmansk)

    http://m.fontanka.ru/2017/03/03/101/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-03-2017 at 02:13 PM.

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    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-03-2017 at 03:07 PM. Reason: fix link

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    Everyone's attention on #Manbij,gave #Iran the time needed to plan & execute the attacks on #Aleppo western Rural #Map via @abdulwahab2070
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    Aleppo: #EuphratesShield has captured 4 pro-#Assad forces near #Al_Bab today. Another #Assad fighter was killed.

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    Aleppo: #Assad regime attacks in Western #Aleppo failed. Pro-#Assad forces fled the battlefield after rebel counter-attack.
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    Russian Syrian Express....


    ВМФ Ropucha cl LSTM #Бф BF Korolev 130 returns from its 3rd #Syria deployment, departs Aegean &transits Marmara-bound Dardanelles

    She has returned heavily loaded though...
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat...this is major.....he was being accompanied though by Spetsnaz from which we have not heard about any of their loses in the IED strike..there were loses but announced occurring in the Aleppo area....

    Russian General blown up in IED blast in Palmyra last week - report
    Russian general-mayor Petr Milyukhin seriously wounded in Palmyra a week ago ...lost two legs and one eye so it appears the vehcle are physically targeted...
    General was chief of training/study of Russian Western Military District(located from Voronezh to Murmansk)

    http://m.fontanka.ru/2017/03/03/101/
    Yup. They've lost a few troops of the (AFAIK) 24th SPETSNAZ Brigade that guarded Milyukhin, too. Only one was named in the public so far, thought.

    Seems, the organization of the battlefield is meanwhile such, that the Russians are commanding nearly all of the ops - except those undertaken by the IRGC alone (like in Western Aleppo).

    The Russians in turn issue their commands to elements of the Quwwat Nimr, and this is then forwarding the same to 'everybody else'.

    Example: the latest offensive on Palmyra (which, apparently, is about to recover that poor city). There's a Russian commander on the top, with his own staff - all protected by SPETSNAZ, and escorted by a FAC-team too.

    Then there's the Hamza Group of the Quwwat Nimr (a company-strong element from the ''Tiger Force', a 'command & control' militia). They are there to play the 'SAA', i.e. show the flag and drive those recently-delivered T-62Ms in front of various cameras.

    However, most of the force consists of Liwa Fatimiyoun (about 20,000 troops in total) and Hezbollah (one battalion). Considering these numbers along, little surprise the Daesh is losing as quickly.

    And the CENTCOM is providing CAS...

    So, when the Washington Post proudly announces Hezbollah, Russia and the U.S. help Syria retake Palmyra it's got the story entirely wrong (no surprise, since I doubt they've got even 1/10th of any of their journos really knowing what's up in Syria).

    Correct title should be: Afghans, Lebanese, Iranians and Russians take Palmyra - backed by US air support.

  12. #752
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    Aleppo: #HTS destroyed an #Assad regime T-72 with a #TOW strike in Western #Aleppo today.

    2 tanks taken out & 20+ pro-Assad reportedly killed including an #IRGC Colonel in failed Regime offensive on NW #Aleppo front.

    W. #Aleppo: Rebels repelled an attempt by pro-Regime forces to advance towards Al-Rashidin-Suq Al-Gibs (red circle).
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    Aleppo: 600 #YPG fighters have left the #Raqqa offensive and arrived the #Manbij area.

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    Manbij is the place to watch in the escalating drama of powers in northern Syria. Doesn't look good.
    http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns...ey-1244202159#

  15. #755
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    Please tell me, this isn't real!!!

    "Not aware" of a deal every school kid between Damascus & Istanbul knows of and Russia openly announced.


    BREAKING Russia informed Pentagon through deconfliction lines that it was moving to Manbij, and this is why US wasn't surprised by it

    It seems, Trump, also like Obama, is likely to cooperate with the Syrian Kurdish group YPG in the region. Hence, making it impossible to start a new era in Turkey-U.S. relations

    https://www.dailysabah.com/columns/r...aqqa-operation
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-03-2017 at 06:27 PM.

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    The "Syrian Democratic Forces" (#YPG and friends) - our "biggest hope against ISIS" - are more&more showing their true pro-dictatorial face.

    Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite militia on attacks by Turkish-supported Iraqi Kurds on Yazidis, who themselves demand PKK to withdraw to Syria.

    Why is the #PKK/#YPG handing areas over to the Assad regime, but not to the #Peshmarga despite demands of the Yazidi https://twitter.com/rudawenglish/sta...105518247936#…

    There were some clashes between syrian kurds of the legimated Roj Peshmarga & the terrorists #kurds of the #PKK/#YPG

    Or in other words: Welcome to the giant post-#ISIS clusterf*ck that will entertain us for the next decade & lay foundation to the next ISIS.

  17. #757
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    Remember this day!
    @CJTFOIR prefers to hand over land,liberated from #ISIS,to #Assad.
    Rather than finding a solution between #SDF & #Turkey.

    It also confirmed, the transfer of large tracts of land, @CJTFOIR liberated from #ISIS, to #Assad and Iranian-led militias, started this AM.

  18. #758
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    Faylaq al-Sham has called upon #HTS to stop infighting with Ahrar al-Sham in #Idlib - offers to mediate if necessary.

    Salafist cleric Abu Basir al-Tartusi has demanded a trial of Nusra/JFS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani for crimes against #Syria's revolution.

    - "As U.S pressures #Iran, parallel tensions grow between #Israel & #Hezbollah”
    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...pid=gigya-tw#…

    Charles Lister‏
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    This is not a joke.
    - This terrorism "expert" sat in the White House, thinks using "Radical Islamic…" is the "key" to defeating #terrorism.
    Charles Lister

    Sebastian Gorka DrG‏
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    After 8 years of obfuscation and disastrous Counterterrorism policies those 3 words are key to Victory against Global Jihadism.
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    #"There's nothing magic about those three words. They're not a strategy, they're a talking point." -Marie Harf on 'radical Islamic terrorism'

  19. #759
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    URGENT WARNING...only rumor not fully confirmed as of yet.....

    Rumor has it Telegram is compromised & Russian IC has access to messages for past 3 years.

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