Europe under strain: political extremism aspects

[Red Rat]

Despite the Scottish Government stating that a 'Yes' vote in the referendum in Scotland on 18 Sep would be a mandate to negotiate towards their vision Scotland's Future, most people I speak to who are canvassing for a Yes vote are unaware of the contents of this and hold their own (often irreconcilable) views as to what independence should look like.

Of more interest to this forum is that half to two thirds of those I speak to who are actively campaigning for a 'yes' vote see this as wholly or significantly a 'vote against the system'. There is a strong anti-establishment verging on anarchist tendency running through the street polemic.

[Firn]

Of more interest to this forum is that half to two thirds of those I speak to who are actively campaigning for a 'yes' vote see this as wholly or significantly a 'vote against the system'. There is a strong anti-establishment verging on anarchist tendency running through the street polemic.

Such tendencies might have been present in quite a few of fateful big decisions in nations and other entities with both good and bad outcomes in the longer term. Frankly I have little to no idea about the political realities around that referendum, however it is difficult to refute the points raised by UK academics about the economic one. They don't seem to get heared much, as it seems.

[davidbfpo]

The Scottish referendum has a long history and the nationalist (SNP) campaign initially appeared to be a further step to gain more devolved powers, then it became "we want out of the UK".

Nationalist aspirations are found in a number of European nations, some appear to be a residual, occassionally violent threat; Corsica for example. Or a popular cause that steadily gains power, not independence like in Catalonia. Not so far away is the Basque cause, which has been harmed IMHO by ETA's terrorism, but remains a potent non-violent cause for many. The UK of course has Northern Ireland! Independence is currently parked as an aspiration by popular agreement, except for a few "die-hards".

In the UK and maybe in other, established West European democracies there appears to be an increasing disconnect between the electorate and those in politics and government. Here that is shown in a steady decline in local and national elections. Plus a drammatic fall in political party membership and in the last twenty years trade union membership.

So yes there is pressure building. Economics do not necessarily dominate the public debate, although for social welfare reasons the under-employed or unemployed appear content to stay at home playing games on the TV, drinking, taking drugs and more.

[Firn]

Things change over time which is a bit of a truism. While it seems that the No will prevail it is rather useful to look at the Velvet Divorce, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia. The circumstances were quite different, of course, but is still of interest.

Many Czechs and Slovaks desired the continued existence of a federal Czechoslovakia. Some major Slovak parties, however, advocated a looser form of co-existence and the Slovak National Party complete independence and sovereignty. In the next years, political parties re-emerged, but Czech parties had little or no presence in Slovakia, and vice versa. In order to have a functional state, the government demanded continued control from Prague, while Slovaks continued to ask for decentralization.[1]

In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Vclav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimr Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Vclav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]

In many European cases more regional rights seem to be a fine enough long term solution but there are of course many variables. In Italy's case the minorities are all relatively small and a stronger autonomy with a somewhat higher public spending is rather affordable, even if some disagree.

[Firn]

I was pretty impressed by the Gordon Brown's speech at Maryhill. A very powerful rallying cry with mostly very sound arguments. So after he did more then his share in saving the British finance system and softening the blow for the British economy, for which he took a beating, he stepped up when his native nation was close to making a dangerous one...

[davidbfpo]

Although the furore over the massive flow of refugees from Syria and migrants from elsewhere has been reported upon, it is rare to see MSM report on the extreme right (XRW) and their hopes for 2016:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...o-Britain.html

I don't follow Czech politics, but when their President speaks at a XRW rally in Prague last month one must wonder what is happening:

The country’s President Milos Zeman, who is an outspoken critic of Islam, immigration and the EU. Six thousand people turned out in Prague to listen.

[davidbfpo]

This seems like the best place to add this allegation. The report starts with:

Podemos, the leftist party that emerged as the major success story in last month’s indecisive Spanish general election, has been accused of receiving illicit funding from the Iranian government. The party, which campaigned on a platform of combatting corruption and slowing the pace of crippling austerity, is reported to be under investigation by a division of the Spanish police that has previously looked into graft allegations against other political parties.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6813006.html


Or if you read Spanish, the original allegation:http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana...ienda_1136490/

[davidbfpo]

An explanation that crosses the continent to find answers and here is an example, one that had slipped past my sight:

Spain, meanwhile, whose voting system was designed after its return to democracy in the 1970s to deliver strong majorities and a stable two-party system, remains without a government nearly three months after it went to the polls on 20 December.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...es-parliaments

[davidbfpo]

Via John Schindler on Twitter:

Frank Hannig: "From the Stasi to Pegida. As a lawyer with Stasi past helped build Pegida."

He cites a report in German, which is not a language I know and no translation option is offered:https://correctiv.org/blog/2016/04/0...pegida-verein/

I am assuming this ex-Stasi officer may have a Russian affiliation still.

[mirhond]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/suspect-...in-strasbourg/

PARIS - French police say they are looking for a man who attacked a soldier with a box cutter in the eastern city of Strasbourg.

Local government official Dominique Jane told Europe 1 radio the incident happened in Strasbourg's train station on Saturday evening. Jane said Sunday that the soldiers pushed back the aggressor, who managed to escape, as he was trying to attack one of them. One soldier was slightly injured on a cheek. The man's motives remained unclear. Jane said the attacker spoke in Arabic, but he doesn't know the content and translation of his words.

TWO (2) armed(?) soldiers vs ONE (1) assailant with a box cutter.
Gosh, my second thought was : "Phew, at least they did not surrender"

[davidbfpo]

A "broad brush" commentary by RUSI's Raffaello Pantucci; sub-titled 'Rightwing extremists are a grave danger in themselves, let alone when you factor in their influence on mainstream politics, and on terrorism':https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/28/brexit-europe-far-right-rightwing-extremists-politics-terrorism?

Those who have watched this will not be surprised by:

In the RUSI-led research, a particularly striking finding was that in about 40% of cases of far-right extremists, they were uncovered by chance – the individual managed to blow himself up or was discovered while authorities conducted another investigation. By contrast, around 80% of violent Islamist lone actors were discovered in intelligence-led operations – in other words, the authorities were looking for them.

In the UK the far right find a ready audience IMHO amongst, as the Home Secretary stated today:

There is still one in ten 18-24 year olds in the UK who are unemployed.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37561035

[davidbfpo]

A different way to explain this issue and taking the UK's once very active "far right" group, the English Defence League (EDL) and the author's first-hand research watching them:

...reveals that the participation of grassroots members was driven by the club goods of access to violent conflict, increased self-worth and group solidarity.

(Ends with) To understand the appeal of EDL activism, it is not enough to examine the group’s ideological appeal; the costs and benefits of activism must also be identified.

Link: http://www.radicalisationresearch.or...footsoldiers/?

[AdamG]

On November 13 last year, three teams of militants from the so-called "Islamic State" (IS), armed with Kalashnikovs, stormed the Stade de France stadium, the Bataclan concert hall and several pubs in Paris. The rampage left 130 people dead, 85 of them in Bataclan, where the band, the Eagles of Death Metal, was playing.
Meanwhile, investigations have revealed that all nine men involved in the attacks had traveled to Europe together with the stream of refugees that entered the continent in 2015. According to German weekly "Welt am Sonntag," the country's spy agency, the "Bundesnachrichtendienst," (BND) has warned that IS is specifically training terrorists to merge with asylum seekers looking for safer havens in Europe. The report's authors say that the BND suggests that terrorists train potential attackers on how to answer questions during border interrogations so they can prove their credibility as refugees.

http://www.dw.com/en/islamic-state-r...ers/a-36389389

[OUTLAW 09]

France's Le Pen fully supports Putin and Assad in Syria.........

The term for this is the Fascist Internationale:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/ne...idUSKBN13B230#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not believe Crimea...eastern Ukraine.....Syria...Brexit...and the US elections are not intertwined in the Russia non linear war with the US....

UKIP spent EU money on its #brexit campaign. Misused £400,000 in total, the Indy reports
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...a7422471.html#

AND former leader of UKIP visiting Trump before any major foreign leader does.....

[davidbfpo]

Hope not Hate is a UK-based advocacy group, some are critical of its stance, not just its opponents.

They have just published a 'special' (70 pgs) on the UK and European far right scene, with some pointers to Russian links:http://edition.pagesuite-professiona...6-4b6d6b344fd5

UKIP do feature, but as today's BBC News reports they have their own problems with a by-election:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38976044

We shall what the electorate @ Stoke think of UKIP's new leader when they vote. The constituency was strongly pro-Brexit and the sitting Labour MP has resigned, having been offered a better job.

[OUTLAW 09]

Latest "Trump affect" on European far right and or neo right populists seems to be doing them in not helping them...

France's Le Pen now behind going into the first round of voting which definitely means if confirmed she will lose in the second round...

Dutch far right party not even in position to threaten anything going into the election.

Danish populist party in the same position....not going anywhere

Italian far right was just in Moscow to sign something that they thought might help them..but their polling is weak ater the trip....

Germany...important...the neo/far right AfD were at a high in the polls of 12-13% now after five weeks of Trump and a neo Nazi party leader pro Hitler comments....THEY dropped to a 8-9% level...and still are sinking....

So maybe Europe should be thanking Trump and his merry band of neo rightists....for showing a bulk of European voters where the far right is heading....

[davidbfpo]

A commentary on how in the UK, under a Labour government in 2009-2010, there was a programme to counter the extreme right, by the minister involved. A few passages set the scene:

I learned a lot from Connecting Communities about engaging in the predominantly white, working class communities that are also typical of the ‘post industrial’ economy. I also understood more about why electoral support for Labour had tumbled since 1997 (even if those areas still elected Labour MPs and councilors).A gulf has opened between many people in post-industrial communities and many who genuinely want to stand in solidarity with them. We need to acknowledge this and understand why.
The starting point must be the recognition of the deep thread of powerlessness, of lacking a voice, of being ignored; and, equally important, the belief that others are always being heard first.

Link:http://www.theoptimisticpatriot.co.u...ing-to-england