Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[davidbfpo]

This is the Syria in 2017 thread, it is not appropriate to engage in a wider political awareness exchange - notably about President Trump. A number of recent posts have been deleted and if I have time others will be too.

The ToR for the Forum are quite clear this is not a politics at home arena. We cannot avoid politics, but we can avoid what appears to be partisan politics. It may interest some, especially as the news content may not be seen by readers via their usual sources. It may also turn off readers too, who can find that news and debate elsewhere.

Earlier this year the Forum tried to have a debate with a thread elsewhere, that experiment failed and the thread was closed. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...=24661&page=31

[Azor]

This is the Syria in 2017 thread, it is not appropriate to engage in a wider political awareness exchange - notably about President Trump. A number of recent posts have been deleted and if I have time others will be too.

The ToR for the Forum are quite clear this is not a politics at home arena. We cannot avoid politics, but we can avoid what appears to be partisan politics. It may interest some, especially as the news content may not be seen by readers via their usual sources. It may also turn off readers too, who can find that news and debate elsewhere.

Earlier this year the Forum tried to have a debate with a thread elsewhere, that experiment failed and the thread was closed. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...=24661&page=31

Thank you, David. I, for one, am not going to argue that the current President is my ideal. Having said that, it does read as though any action or inaction of his is being completely politicized. It is enough that laypeople with no understanding of conflict or history are now budding Kremlinogists and Bomb Damage Assessors.

There is quite enough partisan politics on Twitter, Disqus and Facebook plugin. I'd sooner discuss the course of the war in question.

[Azor]

…the rebels for the last several years have stated...push out Assad and then we can focus and will focus on IS as they are not Syrians...

Then who will succeed him as leader of the Alawi/Christian/Druze faction?

…IF and I use the term IF..if in fact Obama had been willing to completely ground the Syrian AF and their helicopters there would have been no

1. sarin gas attacks
2. no chlorine barrel bombs
3. no barrel bombs
4. limited very limited refugee flows towards Europe
5. would have greatly limited starvation...ethnic cleansings
6. potentially facilitated the removal of Assad

RE:

1. Not necessarily. Assad could have used rocket artillery
2. See above
   
3. Russia and Iran could have intervened with their airpower in 2013 to replace the SyAAF
   
4. Not necessarily. What of rockets and shells?
   
5. How so? Most of that is done on the ground
   
6. Or the direct intervention of Iran and Russia on Assad’s behalf

The key even today is in fact the removal of Assad as the majority of his society the Sunni's demand it…BUT it clashes with the Iranian green crescent objectives...

His “society” now consists of Alawi, Christian and Druze Arabs, living primarily in the governorates of Latakia, Tartus, As-Suwayda and parts of Homs, Hama, Daraa, Rif Dimashq, Damascus and others.

There is no way that the minorities, be they Kurds, Alawis, Christians or Druze, are going to peacefully accept majority rule by the Sunni Arabs and face a possible “tyranny of the majority”. The best that the Sunni Arabs can hope for are population transfers for mixed areas and border demarcations of the variety carried out in East-Central Europe in the aftermath of World War II.

Simply stated no Iranian troops and no Russian troops and AF...should remain in Syria otherwise I hate to say this we will see an actual partition of Syria into an Assad zone...a Sunni/Turkish zone and a Kurdish zone setting up conflict in Syria for the next two decades at a minimum...

Partitioning the country and imposing ceasefires is the solution. While the Russian and Iranian forces could retreat to Assad’s enclave in the west, any Iranian-led mercenaries attempting to commit ethnic or sectarian cleansing of mixed areas with Sunni Arabs should be considered as FTOs and targeted in the same manner as Daesh and Khorasan.

Face it, Syria is a failed and fractured state. You had might as well pine for Yugoslavia to be pieced back together.

BTW check the posted map which clearly now depicts this green crescent that I have been writing about here since say about the late 2004 timeframe and now in 2017 we are seeing in an accurate map...the "green crescent"...

Yes, Teheran does have imperial ambitions. Yet it is wasting resources to preserve by force what it had already obtained by “soft power” by 2011. Teheran is unconcerned that Lebanon is not a unitary Shia-led state, and it should have moved toward allowing for similar federalism in Iraq and Syria, rather than allowing and/or spurring its allies there to provoke civil wars.

,..I am after participating in three wars in my lifetime not a warmonger by any means…I believe that diplomacy has it's place but when it fails one must be able and willing to use force to resolve issues...

Yet what of the ongoing mass murder and development of WMDs in North Korea? What of the ongoing mass murder and war crimes in Sudan, South Sudan and other parts of Africa? What of ethnic and sectarian cleansing in Myanmar?

Your interest in applying force is confined to a particular region, when the U.S. has global interests. Moreover, the “humanitarian” interventions in Yugoslavia and Libya did far more to damage U.S. relations with its rivals and adversaries than the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq ever did. Merely because YouTube isn’t abounding with footage, doesn’t mean that the paramilitaries and indeed militaries of Africa, have stopped raping, murdering, torturing, maiming and pillaging.

...Notice the crescent shape of the map...then expand that crescent into AFG and on to Pakistan....THEN you will notice that it accurately follows the old Silk Trading Road…

Pakistan (and formerly Iraq) is the reason why Iran has a nuclear weapons program, in addition to state security. Israel is a diversion, not unlike how Russia violates the INF Treaty in response to China not NATO.

Iran has to be very careful with Pakistan, lest the ISI fire up Iran’s Balochis and Sunnis in reply. Nor can the Iranian military defeat Pakistan’s. Even with Indian support, Pakistan is backstopped with nuclear weapons, albeit the U.S. does have a costly and uncertain contingency plan for securing them.

... But bombs can never substitute for a strategic foreign policy in a set strategy. Bombing simply covers up that fact as it is again simply a tactical move on the FP battlefield...kind of like lashing out with no thought behind it to just prove how strong you are...AND that you can go it alone...

It worked for Clinton, who was able to successfully kick a number of cans down the road, from non-proliferation to counter-terrorism. It also worked for Obama, who far from engaging with the Muslim world, pursued a strategy of containment and attrition via airpower.

[OUTLAW 09]

Face it, Syria is a failed and fractured state. You had might as well pine for Yugoslavia to be pieced back together.

Syria is actually not a truly failed state...if the fighting can be stopped...take a serious look at what the FSA negotiators have proposed...really take a serious look at their proposals....

Couple it with the ground reality....when FSA had the opportunity to retaliate IE as had the Shia...THEY DID NOT...take the single water source for all of Damascus...they protected it and never did shut it off....take the two Shia enclaves which were removed in ethnic cleansing exchanges...they never fired rockets into the civilian population as did Ass ad and Iran....take the ongoing fighting in Hama that now Assad forces took over two major Christian towns to launch attacks of the FSA and FSA refrained to fighting anywhere near them and reached out to them to ensure they knew they would not be attacked....

THEN take Aleppo...they never did in all the fighting actually attack western Aleppo which was literally next door...why civilians ..FSA and it's related units have a long history of not attacking civilians wherever possible.

AND Assad....civilians to not matter especially if they are Sunni's....

Go back to the very start of the rebellion....and seriously recheck every move Assad as made against civilians...THEN tell me if Assad ad his clan is removed things cannot go forward towards a long term peaceful resolution..

BTW....why is there interest the Iranians for Assad...Assad is from a Shia offshoot which many do not seem to fully understand just as a number of the Shia enclaves are Shia 12ers or 5ers...not really formally recognized even by Iran but heck all Shia even the offshoots are still Shia in Iranian eyes...

So partition would doom the entire ME...just as it has long term in Yugoslavia....but in reality it was the iron hand of Tito that kept it together....

You really do need to fully understand far more than you do about ground reality in both Syria and Iraq...

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW...all these media reports about the "messaging behind the use of TLAMs and MOABs"...are to me nothing but "fake news" as their use did not influence......or change any political opinions nor impress anyone .....those that the US are concerned deeply with IE Syria....Russia....Iran and NK could not care in the least...they drive on their own agendas and have their own military capacities that they are comfortable with and a cruise missile or a 22,000 lb single bomb that takes an entire C130 to deliver and which would never survive an ADA2 environment...how is that "impressing"....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...really go back and analyze the US Iranian deal and you will agee with my running critique of Obama in Syria....he fully and completely allowed with his approval the Iranian regional hegemony over Iraq and Syria ....this view was also restated clearly and concisely in his 20K word interview and further reinforced by the Ben Rhodes interview...all available to read....

So in some ways the Iranian involvement is a given from their perspective as it is their view also for Iraq....guaranteed by the Iran deal..

By entering Syria in large Shia militia numbers all they are doing is fulfilling what they assume to be their "natural rights" allowed them by Obama and company.

With Trump we have absolutely no strategy to speak of on either IS...Iran and or Russia...well maybe not Russia as Trump has never said a single word of disapproval of anything Putin does....and needs their money for his business empire...

Trump's current "Wag the Dog" moments reminds me of the lone pirate walking in a cave full of 100s of lbs of loose gunpowder carrying a flaming torch....with signs all around stating..."no open flames"....

This President is the least informed about world politics...the least educated in actual politics and actually the least overall educated of many of the former Presidents and on top of it an individual who in the business world had no morals in massively over leveraging his Ponzi scheme which needs a constant capital flow to survive....

So carrying an open flame into a cave full of gun powder is OK for him....he does not care after the second and third order of effects he creates...

I do.

[OUTLAW 09]

THIS is example what I mean....while the entire MSM talks about the TLAM and MOAB strikes and how suddenly Trump has changed...WHICH if one carefully reads his and his merry band of brothers comments...he has not changed a single previous statement....

Things are developing in Europe that the MSM is not seeing because of all the Trump "chatter" about his strikes....

North Korea tensions are grabbing all the attention. Something really not-funny going on in Europe.

Hint: Large parts of Russian armed forces are on alert due "winter training period checks"

Russia has alerted 3 motorized brigades in the far east. Units are moving out of garrisons and relocating.

Actually the entire Russian military is on a full war time snap alert...the ENTIRE Russian military and it is not "winter"...it is "spring" so this Russian MoD statement alone is false....

They had just completed those checks a full month ago so why the sudden war time snap re-alert????

If you redeploy aircraft during Easter you don´t do it just for fun. F-35A to Europe this weekend
https://theaviationist.com/2017/04/1...ekend/#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Thank you, David. I, for one, am not going to argue that the current President is my ideal. Having said that, it does read as though any action or inaction of his is being completely politicized. It is enough that laypeople with no understanding of conflict or history are now budding Kremlinogists and Bomb Damage Assessors.

There is quite enough partisan politics on Twitter, Disqus and Facebook plugin. I'd sooner discuss the course of the war in question.

So you basically deny that the movie concept of "Wag the Dog" does not in fact find itself often in the political realm of say Syria...NK or even Ukraine....

To deny that often politicians especially US politicians often look over their shoulders at their poll numbers and or "how it is playing with their voters" before they make a move is simple political reality...

So the TLAM air strike by Trump achieved actually what inside Syria? or did it impress the Russians?...certainly did not impress Assad and did it impress NK?...they are still moving forward....

Did is achieve a cessation of the killing of civilians via "other means" namely incendiary cluster munitions are as equally forbidden as gas is and has been since 1929 declared a "gas"....

NO in fact after the TLAM strike use of incendiary cluster munitions has increased 10 FOLD......

I find it interesting that the intertwining of internal US politics inside Syria is not recognized...because only then can a true solution be found....if it is recognized...

Which seems here to be not recognized...

BTW...did a single MOAB cause the IS in AFG to stop fighting in AFG...or did it achieve a major battlefield "victory".....36 killed if that number is even correct does not tip the battlefield against IS or even the Taliban....

HECK more were killed in the Diyala River Basin in one days worth of fighting in 2006 with 1st Cav units....BUT did that main the headlines?

OR did the MOAB really impress Iran and Russia and force them to stop supplying both weapons and advisors to the Taliban...NO it did not....

BUT did it make Trump look like this major "international player willing to use force"...YES...did it play well with his alt right...NO...did it play well with is voters...YES....

So again does the political theory of "Wag the Dog" actually exist???

With a President under such pressure concerning his alleged ties to Russian black money ties nicely again back into the political theory of "Wag the Dog"....

[Azor]

So you basically deny that the movie concept of "Wag the Dog" does not in fact find itself often in the political realm of say Syria...NK or even Ukraine...

To deny that often politicians especially US politicians often look over their shoulders at their poll numbers and or "how it is playing with their voters" before they make a move is simple political reality...

Who are you referring to? All elected leaders? American ones?

You’ll kindly recall that the film was made in honor of former President Clinton, who found swashbuckling in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Yugoslavia more interesting than dealing with his scandals or indeed Congress.

I’ll cut you off at the pass here:

Firstly, Assad’s recent use of Sarin in Idlib was not fabricated. Neither was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, ethnic cleansing in Bosnia or 9/11.

Secondly, there are cases where the rationale for intervention was incredibly weak, and in which misinformation and even outright disinformation was involved, such as the non-existent genocides in Kosovo and Libya and Iraqi nuclear weapons.

So the TLAM air strike by Trump achieved actually what inside Syria? or did it impress the Russians?...certainly did not impress Assad and did it impress NK?...they are still moving forward....

Did is achieve a cessation of the killing of civilians via "other means" namely incendiary cluster munitions are as equally forbidden as gas is and has been since 1929 declared a "gas"....

NO in fact after the TLAM strike use of incendiary cluster munitions has increased 10 FOLD...

The airstrike on Shayrat punished Assad for using Sarin, without defeating him and materially altering the course of the war. Additionally, it degraded his air force by some 20% and signaled that the U.S. would use force in response to Assad’s use of Sarin and possibly other chemical weapons, later clarified to include chlorine gas and other “industrial” agents.

As for “impressing” state leaders, I have not seen Assad use Sarin or chlorine since and Putin has backed away from defending Syrian airspace.

I have not read or heard of any U.S. “redline” on the use of incendiary or cluster munitions. Such a stance would invariably conflict with the American doctrine on these weapons as well as their use by allies such as Israel.

In any event, the vast majority of Syrian civilians are dying from shells, bullets and unguided conventional bombs.

If I were you, I would be thankful that the current Administration has taken some action, however small, to deter and prevent Assad from butchering civilians as he has been since 2011. It has been three and a-half years since you were severely disappointed by witnessing Assad use Sarin with near impunity, invite Russia in, and then resort to chlorine gas. Why? In order for Iran, the invader keeping Syria aflame, to feel satiated enough to possibly meet its commitments under the NPT. Perhaps you should Tweet your frustrations to the person busy setting up his charity-cum-slush fund.

I find it interesting that the intertwining of internal US politics inside Syria is not recognized...because only then can a true solution be found...if it is recognized...Which seems here to be not recognized...

Do you hear that? It’s the sound of the world’s smallest violin.

Small wars of choice always revolve around domestic politics. Aside from a handful of defensive campaigns against the Danes, Normans, Spanish, French and Axis, all of England’s and Great Britain’s wars were wars of choice fought on the territory of others, in the air or on the high seas. Even British participation in the Great War was arguably as much a matter of choice as national defense. The records of the dynamics between monarch and aristocracy, monarch and parliament and parliament and public with regard to war, span centuries.

Complaining about what you cannot control is only going to give you undue stress. I read all-cap condemnations of the NSC for 3 years. Did those daily reminders make a difference?

BTW...did a single MOAB cause the IS in AFG to stop fighting in AFG...or did it achieve a major battlefield "victory"...36 killed if that number is even correct does not tip the battlefield against IS or even the Taliban...

I was waiting for you to bring the #MOAB up, although I can’t recall it being used in Syria…

Well, the enemy death toll is at 82 or almost 10% of Daesh’s fighting strength in Afghanistan. Not only were Daesh’s tunnel complexes cleared and destroyed, no Coalition casualties were incurred due to booby-traps; as a veteran of the Vietnam War, I thought you might appreciate that.

You have discussed Operation Arc Light, but I have read that the average number of NLF/NVA killed per B-52 was ~3. Those dumb bombs are better at killing and maiming civilians today, than they ever were at closing the Ho Chi Minh Trail.

HECK more were killed in the Diyala River Basin in one days worth of fighting in 2006 with 1st Cav units...BUT did that main the headlines?

Well, for the entire Diyala campaign, the kill/capture ratio was under 4:1 in favor of the Coalition. Not exactly bloodless. More akin to the Wehrmacht experience on the OstFront...

Now can we get back to Syria?