Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

RE: Cluster Munitions and Incendiary Weapons

The U.S. produces and uses cluster munitions, and neither it nor allies Israel and Saudi Arabia - which have used cluster munitions in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen - are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. In addition, neither the U.S. nor Israel are signatories to the Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the use of Incendiary Weapons.

According to the U.S. State Dept. in 2008:

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Nyet. You have no way of knowing how Putin would have proceeded had Obama launched a TLAM strike in 2013. Arguably, Obama would have done nothing after delivering a slap on the wrist so long as Assad demurred from using Sarin again.



Nyet. Russia intervened when Assad was in danger of being defeated by the rebels in 2015.



Nyet. Had Obama launched a punitive airstrike in 2013, Putin would have intervened earlier. The U.S. was in no position to impose aerial supremacy and/or a blockade before the Russians could establish themselves. Moreover, I do not see U.S. pilots shooting down Russian aircraft for violating a no-fly zone.



Clinton would have likely been more confrontational, but the fact that Putin would rather avoid confrontation if possible does not suggest that he would countenance direct U.S. intervention against Assad.

Unfortunately, both you and CrowBat seem to be applying binary choices to this situation when it is more an issue of nuances and tweaks. That is the same fallacy that proponents of a complete withdrawal from Syria are making.

Both of you will have to admit that to achieve your preferences will require a major and long-term U.S. commitment in and to Syria, well above and beyond the effort made to protect the KAR in Iraq. Regime change is the least of it. We are talking about state-building, peacekeeping and policing on the ground, economic reconstruction, de-radicalization, inter-sectarian and ethnic integration, truth and reconciliation and probably the demarcation of new international boundaries.

I will admit the following and it is actually backed up by actions on the ground not by "grand words coming out of DC...EU or UNSC"......

1. Russia was in no position to react in a Obama air strike via TLAMs in 2013...end of story....just check their military posturing in 2013...it was all focused on eastern Ukraine ramp up.

They had virtually no military expansion power in the ME at that moment in time.....

So stop the argument until you can show me their military power forward positioning that was available to react to any US movement...

There was none....

SECONDLY check the IHL treaties under the use of INCENDIARY cluster munitions against civilians....as well as the use of chlorine....and actually thermobaric weapons against civilians would in fact be also covered....

ALL solid IHL and GC violations.....learn to read international treaties para for para...

BUT WAIT....Assad was on the verge of defeat far earlier when the rebels launched a major offensive....and Putin did not move then.......did he?

BUT you point to something that goes to an article you posted on the Russian propaganda thread....and I replied that one needs to check Russian "actions against Russian words"....

WHY was the year 2015 selected as the entry point into Syria instead of say 2014 or not far earlier if one really just wants to expand influence with little military effort/little political costs?

Because by then Putin fully and completely understood that Obama would do nothing.........AND he fully understood Trump was openly stating that he wanted to work with Putin against IS/AQ in 2016 ----BUT I am assuming he knew this already in 1987........

NOW go back to several articles written in the NYTs right after the Iran deal was concluded and reread the Obama statements focused on thanking Putin for his assistance with the deal....

Analysts stated then that it was possible that Obama as a favor for Putin's assistance was quasi allowing Putin to expand Russian influence into Syria as a guarantor of the deal along with Iran....and as we see today. Russia is the sole instigator of UN peace dealings using this guarantor status granted by Obama that is why the Us went along with it...really reread that Obama statement as it is an eye opener....

Then go to the 2016 20,000 word Obama interview reinforced by the Rhodes 2016 interview...what was his position towards Iran and KSA openly stared in that set of interviews....BTW I critiqued both of those here..

Putin knew he had a clear and approved road into Syria.....

These "ground/FP conditions" were not available to Putin in 2013...so if you believe that they were available...show me.....

So reread and the come back....