UK Counter-Terrorism (merged thread)

[OUTLAW 09]

From a UK political blog site, so the links are cited:
Link:https://order-order.com/2017/05/25/8...sh-government/


PS don't bother with the comments that follow.


The bomb analysis is shared via the Bomb Data Centre network, which includes many non-NATO members and IIRC the PRC and Russia.

What is interesting about this particular attack...the UK slams down an info wall and yet on the Berlin truck attack killing just ten less and having the same number of injuried the German authorities were open and forthcoming with all information...or in the Paris attacks all information was flowing as fast as the authorities would actually allow it.

What I think is happening is that it is now forcing the current government to start acknowledging a few facts that are now coming out via social media.....

1. French and German intel had passed on solid information concerning the bomber up to four days before the attacks
2. bomber was on a fly watch list and Turkey correctly and speedily informed UK about his flights out of Trukey before the bombing
3. bomber flies a IS flag in the back of his house
4. bombers family repeatedly warned the police
5. all indications of virtually no security in place when he simply walked into the building when the performance was over....

Just as in the German truck attack red flags were flying literally everywhere but no one connected the dots......

One of the lessons learned in the Canne, Paris and Berlin attacks...you leave all security in major events firmly in place until the last person is out of the event..that did not happen in Manchester....and every bag and bulky clothing is searched....a bomb vest is not a easy thing to look slim in....

I highly suspect that the leaks are coming from UK sources fed up with the tightness and lack of info going to the public ..........

One thing French, German and Brussels authorities have learned..open up all channels of communications to the public and ask for as much help as they can provide...videos...photos...tweets..observations etc....

The failures around the German truck attacker are even played out in public and thus the public has no feeling that the government is not trying to coverup mistakes and is in fact learning from their own mistakes....something the UK is not doing right now....

Example..German investigators had learned about the trucker attacker being involved in drug sales as a finance mechanism....they raided six locations inside Berlin yesterday rolling up 10 major drug dealers and 6 of them were high value jihadist targets....

Ever since that Dec attack German authorities have been raiding and raiding and raiding and arresting along the way....after the London car attack yes you saw some activity but not to the levels seen in Brussels, Paris and Berlin....

What is not leaked and has not been leaked is how did the UK know within virtually the first hour or so of chaos exactly who the bomber was??

BTW...one leaked article about the making of the bomb ...highly professional was the undertone..is now being countered that the bomber made it himself and BTW no professional bomb maker kills himself......

So in fact some leaks were not all that accurate.....

[davidbfpo]

Citing one line by Outlaw09:

all indications of virtually no security in place when he simply walked into the building when the performance was over....

From my media watching that is simply wrong. The bomb went off in a public area, the venue's foyer is adjacent to and open to a train station concourse. He did not access the concert venue itself. The bomb detonated as the early concert leavers entered the public area, but the singer gave one more final son so most people stayed inside.

Added next day, the NYT report has photos and a diagram of he location.

Link:https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/24/world/europe/manchester-arena-bomb-materials-photos.html?

That is why the British Transport Police, who cover the railway network, had initial primacy as it was in their jurisdiction. The BTP always have a uniform presence at such a station.

On the move more maybe later.

[OUTLAW 09]

Citing one line by Outlaw09:

From my media watching that is simply wrong. The bomb went off in a public area, the venue's foyer is adjacent to and open to a train station concourse. He did not access the concert venue itself. The bomb detonated as the early concert leavers entered the public area, but the singer gave one more final son so most people stayed inside.

That is why the British Transport Police, who cover the railway network, had initial primacy as it was in their jurisdiction. The BTP always have a uniform presence at such a station.

On the move more maybe later.

Recheck all available video footage...all large metal gates were open into this entrance area and there is a not a single security person standing around and or next to them...and no search tables were present...

Secondly, the bomb blast flash was in fact in an enclosed area floor area as the flash literally lit up the entire roof area thus he was already in the public area just in front of the arena area......AFTER passing through the open metal security gates outside....had the event gone on longer he would have been inside the arena itself..question is why did he not wait....and was the bomb RC detonated....actually the numbers killed and or wounded are relatively small when looking as the actual blast flash.....when you think that 12 were killed and over 62 wounded in a simple truck crash here in Berlin....that covered a distance of 30 meters....

In all stadiums here for example all security systems remain in place even if they are further away from the actual event and police and or armed private security remain there as well....and metal detectors are in fashion now

[flagg]

Citing one line by Outlaw09:

From my media watching that is simply wrong. The bomb went off in a public area, the venue's foyer is adjacent to and open to a train station concourse. He did not access the concert venue itself. The bomb detonated as the early concert leavers entered the public area, but the singer gave one more final son so most people stayed inside.

That is why the British Transport Police, who cover the railway network, had initial primacy as it was in their jurisdiction. The BTP always have a uniform presence at such a station.

On the move more maybe later.

I am no SME by any means, but I am making an initial assumption that large events now possess at least minimal/reasonable levels of superficial security, and that attackers such as these may simply adapt slightly and look for offset non-secure choke points where people briefly mass.

When I think of the leaked technology/techniques used by UK Forces checkpoints in Northern Ireland in the 1970's/80's for intelligence analysis of IRA activity, I'm hopeful the heavy concentration of CCTV in U.K. mixed with Moore's Law will provide additional tools for LE leading up to an attack.

I would imagine CCTV footage of every single known suicide bomber and support team getting crunched for big data analysis for human behaviour pattern recognition might provide some potential early warning, like a pre-crime version of gunshot locators. Same goes for International Entry Customs CCTV.

I'm guessing an AI data scientist/human behaviour psychologist could fill in their own paycheque right about now.

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW...highly suspect that Trump will use these leaks to deflect from his Russian investigations....

[OUTLAW 09]

What is interesting about this particular attack...the UK slams down an info wall and yet on the Berlin truck attack killing just ten less and having the same number of injured the German authorities were open and forthcoming with all information...or in the Paris attacks all information was flowing as fast as the authorities would actually allow it.

What I think is happening is that it is now forcing the current government to start acknowledging a few facts that are now coming out via social media.....

1. French and German intel had passed on solid information concerning the bomber up to four days before the attacks
2. bomber was on a fly watch list and Turkey correctly and speedily informed UK about his flights out of Trukey before the bombing
3. bomber flies a IS flag in the back of his house
4. bombers family repeatedly warned the police
5. all indications of virtually no security in place when he simply walked into the building when the performance was over....

Just as in the German truck attack red flags were flying literally everywhere but no one connected the dots......

One of the lessons learned in the Cannes, Paris and Berlin attacks...you leave all security in major events firmly in place until the last person is out of the event..that did not happen in Manchester....and every bag and bulky clothing is searched....a bomb vest is not a easy thing to look slim in....

I highly suspect that the leaks are coming from UK sources fed up with the tightness and lack of info going to the public ..........

One thing French, German and Brussels authorities have learned..open up all channels of communications to the public and ask for as much help as they can provide...videos...photos...tweets..observations etc....

The failures around the German truck attacker are even played out in public and thus the public has no feeling that the government is not trying to coverup mistakes and is in fact learning from their own mistakes....something the UK is not doing right now....

Example..German investigators had learned about the trucker attacker being involved in drug sales as a finance mechanism....they raided six locations inside Berlin yesterday rolling up 10 major drug dealers and 6 of them were high value jihadist targets....

Ever since that Dec attack German authorities have been raiding and raiding and raiding and arresting along the way....after the London car attack yes you saw some activity but not to the levels seen in Brussels, Paris and Berlin....

What is not leaked and has not been leaked is how did the UK know within virtually the first hour or so of chaos exactly who the bomber was??

BTW...one leaked article about the making of the bomb ...highly professional was the undertone..is now being countered that the bomber made it himself and BTW no professional bomb maker kills himself......

So in fact some leaks were not all that accurate.....

Very interesting article on German counter-terrorism system and jihadists....

Excellent, detailed work by @janraudszus ~> The Jihadist terrorist threat and German Counter-terrorism http://www.capesic.cat/en/2017/05/25...er-terrorism/#

Germany has long maintained that to fight any terrorist problem it is strictly an intel service and police fight.....and long term.....AND I seriously doubt there is any western nation state that has been hit with terror attacks that openly debates the failures by police and security services as does Germany...

In some ways this quite public debate allows the public to understand that the police and security services are admitting if they failed and are learning from their mistakes and allows for the public to feel that their security concerns are being taken seriously....

[davidbfpo]

Nine days after the attack there has been a shift in the official police stance, as indicated in a BBC report which starts with:

Manchester suicide attacker Salman Abedi bought most of the components used to make the bomb himself, police have said.Many of the bomber's movements and actions were "carried out alone" in the four days prior to the attack, Russ Jackson, head of the North West counter terrorism unit, said.
But police have yet to rule out whether he was part of a wider network.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40103563

There remain eleven men in custody, five have been released and the law allows them to be kept in pre-charge custody for up to fourteen days (with reviews at a magistrates court).

Elsewhere some have speculated the IED was not a sophisticated device.

[davidbfpo]

The author of this article is the former head of UK police CT; his actual title is 'The Importance of Bilateral Collaboration in International Counter-Terrorism Investigations' and is carefully worded.
Link:https://policyexchange.org.uk/the-im...nvestigations/

Two passages:

Judging by the speed of the response in Libya to the Manchester attack last week, the UK has demonstrated that it still has the capability, capacity and global reach to be effective in international counter terrorist investigations.
The UK’s international CT network has played a key role in this and will continue to be a vital part of its ongoing defenses against terrorism. Cooperation with European states is very much part of that – but that will not be affected by Brexit.

Contrary to some authors elsewhere the UK's CT police network and more is not part of the "Five Eyes" arrangement, from what is known in the public domain.

[davidbfpo]

Rather unusually I have not added reports and commentaries on the terrorist attack @ London Bridge, on Saturday evening; in part as I was off the web. Secondly CT policy and practice has become a very public issue in the General Election, with the opposition rightly in my opinion being critical of Prime Minister May for her role as Home Secretary (2010-2016) and as Prime Minister.

Then the "fog of war" has cleared remarkably quickly, not this time aided by "leaks" to the US media, with allegations and partial admissions that "something" was wrong on how one murderer was investigated - if not the other two. Sadly another body has just been found in the River Thames, of a missing French national and others remain missing (a Spaniard & an Australian).

One report on the public's role (albeit three days ago):https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...idge-attackers .

Another which refers to Manchester, eight days old:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/28/mi5-launches-inquiries-into-failings-on-manchester-arena-bomber-salman-abedi-moss-side-raids-amber-rudd?

[davidbfpo]

Footage - 37 seconds - has today emerged of how the London Bridge attackers were shot dead:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...and-terrorists

There are some remarks alongside, such as:

No more than 20 seconds elapse from the officers leaving their ARV to the attackers lying still on the floor.

A couple of days ago now a backgrounder on the UK police's armed response policy and practice:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-eight-minutes

The BBC News has a "one stop" collection of reports:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40150689 There is an excellent commentary on the radicalisation factor from ICSR:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40161333

[davidbfpo]

A local newspaper report, based on a Greater Manchester Police press release, clears some of the "smoke" and initial reporting that the attack was a sophisticated operation by many people. For example:

The 22 people arrested in relation to suspected terrorism offences have been released without charge - two of them shortly after arrest.
The remaining 20 were interviewed ‘many times’.....“Some of those arrested and now released have offered accounts which explain innocent contact with Abedi and we are, at this time, satisfied with these explanations. However, this has taken a considerable amount of time to work through to ensure we are satisfied and that the risk to the public has been considered."

Link:http://www.manchestereveningnews.co....ttack-13170282

Or a podcast by NW CTU's head (regional CT unit):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yH4Buc45KU

A rather odd story IMHO from Tripoli, Libya by the BBC:

The bomb attack in Manchester last month which killed 22 people was being planned since December, security officials in Libya have told the BBC.Salman Abedi was being watched in Libya more than a month before the attack.Officials in Tripoli have complained about poor security co-operation with the UK, which they say must be improved to prevent further attacks.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...ester-40254594


This does rather sound like "spin" after the event.