Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/lost-s...ly-using-hard/
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 78
By: Paul Goble

Introduction:

The aggressiveness Moscow has shown in its relations with countries in the former Soviet space reflects Russia’s loss of influence via “soft” power channels. At the same time, the Kremlin’s demonstrated bellicosity simply exacerbates that loss. Consequently, if President Vladimir Putin is going to rebuild Russia’s sway over the region, as he hopes, he will increasingly have to rely on “hard” power, including military and economic pressure. That—more than any of his personal preferences—explains Putin’s actions up to now, and it sets the stage for the further decomposition of the former Soviet space and for more violence as this process continues. And this trend will necessarily involve outside powers, ranging from China to the Middle Eastern states to the West.
Highlights:

  • Moscow’s control over the post-Soviet space was predicated upon ethnic Russians and Russophones in neighboring states, but these have declined sharply
  • Post-Soviet states are turning away from Moscow by seeking membership in NATO, the EU, SCO, etc.
  • Russian aggression in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine has backfired e.g. in Ukraine, which is considering dispensing with the Cyrillic alphabet
  • Russia is neither an attractive model or an economic center of gravity
  • Moscow will have to rely upon force, and has reinforced its deployments to Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, in addition to demanding basing rights in Belarus
  • The Zapad 2017 exercises will be used to pressure Belarus to comply