Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
No U.S. general (or that of any other country today) would ever contemplate a full-scale invasion and occupation of China. As noted, the nuclear weapons alone make such a scenario a non-starter --- never mind the enormous geographical and population scale issues.
While the above is probably true, it is equally true that, in the 20th Century at least, the US was traditionally dragged into wars as an initially unwilling ally of other countries subjected to invasion. If we want to consider options other than the COIN-type events or small wars that are at one end of the spectrum, I suggest that the right answer is more on the lines of mid-level wars where the US intervenes after the fact to try to redress the injustice/balance of power caused by two "less than super" powers getting into a micturating contest. I submit we are more likely to get involved in a conventional war along the lines of DS/DS rather than a heavyweight slugfest like what was envisioned in our war planning for post WWII European conflicts.

Some possible scenarios--
--Assistance to RoK or Japan in NEA should a regime change occur with the death of Kim Jong Il and a muscle flexing by his successor or an invasion by the Chinese to establish his successor.
--A range possible actions in any of the less stable South or Central American countries--our response should, for example, Colombia decide it wants to supplement its cocaine income with oil income from Venezuela or Peru decide it wants to reestablish the Incan Empire by conquering Bolivia and/or Ecuador.
--A host of various alternatives in Africa, ranging from humanitarian interventions to stop brutal suppression of tribal seccessions (Nigeria vs. Biafra Round II, circa 2010) to overt grabs for resources (and these could be as simple as more water and arable land) among various African countries in the sub-Saharan regions. We are already avoiding the Darfur regional problem, dabbling in the Somilia problem again, and might have others (like Robert Mugabe's experiment as a national leader) to attract our attention sooner rather than later.

There should be plenty to entertain our military futurists and we need to have a range of force options not an "either/or" military that hopes it has gotten the "crystal-balling" right.