My Grand Strategy

[Lastdingo]

There will be a recession in the next couple of years anyway. Several nations have accumulated enough problems to guarantee that. An oil crisis would not completely add up to that, as a corporation can only be killed once.

The effect if Saudi-Arabia would reduce its oil deliveries to specific countries would be quite analogous to the mechanics in 1973/74, whereas a overall supply reduction would largely be an extension of the present situation, but with stronger incentives for substitution and savings.

What I wanted to point at as subtle as possible some posts ago is that when someone fomulates grand strategy, he needs to consider the costs of several options.
And there's clearly a choice between paying high prices for raw materials and trying to make raw materials cheap by means of financing and using forces to that end.
If someone for example believed that half of the DoD budget wis necessary for oil issues alone, he would be incorrect. The oil price would certainly not rise enough due to a halved DoD budget (completely hypothetical case - I know about the problems of downsizing such a budget). And even if he did, the half DoD budget spent on actually productive projects or not raised from the taxpayer in the first place would yield additional income that would make expensive oil even more affordable.
Simply paying the price for goods instead of using force ("bullying others" from another point of view) is also commonly considered as being the more ethical choice.