David Wells is a UK-based risk analyst and his background is in Anglo-Australian intelligence analysis. The link is to the transcript of an interview:http://www.bicom.org.uk/blogpost/day...w-david-wells/

He ends with a comment wider than the UK:
There have been different waves of threats over the decades that have different defining factors and the international community needs to keep up with the current wave and its next shift. There’s a danger that some governments are still dealing with the wave of 10-15 years ago, where people in the West fitted the model of ‘radicalisation due to the lack of opportunity and education’. Unfortunately, this model (which I’m simplifying here) isn’t necessarily widely applicable today.
The interview is part of a series 'The day after ISIS', by a previously unheard of group Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre or BICOM and their explanation:
In this conversation on the future of the Middle East after the Islamic State (IS), we bring together experts to debate the prospects for reconstruction and governance in IS-held territory, the future of the Jihadi movement, how to mitigate against the return of IS fighters, and the future regional security framework. We ask the experts what policymakers need to start thinking and planning after the territorial defeat of the most dangerous terrorist group to date.
Link to the interview series, back to May 2017:http://www.bicom.org.uk/analysis/day...islamic-state/