North Korea 2017 onwards

[SWJ Blog]

Five Decades Analyzing North Korea and the Bomb: A 'Foreign Affairs' Anthology

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[SWJ Blog]

Chinese Approaches to Contingency Planning in a Collapsed North Korea

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[AdamG]

Last August, a secret message was passed from Washington to Cairo warning about a mysterious vessel steaming toward the Suez Canal. The bulk freighter named Jie Shun was flying Cambodian colors but had sailed from North Korea, the warning said, with a North Korean crew and an unknown cargo shrouded by heavy tarps.
Armed with this tip, customs agents were waiting when the ship entered Egyptian waters. They swarmed the vessel and discovered, concealed under bins of iron ore, a cache of more than 30,000 rocket-propelled grenades. It was, as a United Nations report later concluded, the “largest seizure of ammunition in the history of sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”
But who were the rockets for? The Jie Shun’s final secret would take months to resolve and would yield perhaps the biggest surprise of all: The buyers were the Egyptians themselves.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...a14_story.html

[SWJ Blog]

Why We Are Where We Are With North Korea - And Where Do We Go From Here?

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[Bill Moore]

CRS Report for Congress
North Korea Provocative Actions 1950-2007

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30004.pdf

36 pages, covers numerous incidents, including the 31 man commando unit that almost assassinated the ROK President in Seoul in 1968; North Korea attempt to kidnap a ROK couple in Belgrade in 1977; a success kidnapping operation of a ROK Actress and her film-director husband in Hong Kong in 1978; the 1983 bombing in Burma in an attempt to kill the ROK President; two North Korea agents planted a bomb on a Korea Airlines 707 in 1987 killing all aboard in an attempt to stop the 1988 Olympics being held in South Korea; and 2006 they conduct their first nuclear weapon test. A lot more in the study.

[max161]

CRS Report for Congress
North Korea Provocative Actions 1950-2007

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30004.pdf

36 pages, covers numerous incidents, including the 31 man commando unit that almost assassinated the ROK President in Seoul in 1968; North Korea attempt to kidnap a ROK couple in Belgrade in 1977; a success kidnapping operation of a ROK Actress and her film-director husband in Hong Kong in 1978; the 1983 bombing in Burma in an attempt to kill the ROK President; two North Korea agents planted a bomb on a Korea Airlines 707 in 1987 killing all aboard in an attempt to stop the 1988 Olympics being held in South Korea; and 2006 they conduct their first nuclear weapon test. A lot more in the study.

Bill,

I have been asking CRS to update this report for years but there has been not request from Congress to do so. Here is another resource on provocations in the past 25 years from CSIS' Beyond Parallel that you might find useful. https://beyondparallel.csis.org/25-y...-provocations/

[AdamG]

Call you smell what SECDEF Mattis has brewing?

America’s relationship with North Korea remains a diplomatic one, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis said Monday, but he urged members of the military to be prepared in case the situation breaks down.

https://www.armytimes.com/digital-sh...plomacy-fails/

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean hackers stole a vast cache of data, including classified wartime contingency plans jointly drawn by Washington and Seoul, when they breached the computer network of the South Korean military last year, a South Korean lawmaker said Tuesday.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/1...war-plans.html

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON — The cybersecurity company FireEye says in a new report to private clients, obtained exclusively by NBC News, that hackers linked to North Korea recently targeted U.S. electric power companies with spearphishing emails.
The emails used fake invitations to a fundraiser to target victims, FireEye said. A victim who downloaded the invitation attached to the email would also be downloading malware into his or her computer network, according to the FireEye report. The company did not dispute NBC's characterization of the report, but declined to comment.
There is no evidence that the hacking attempts were successful, but FireEye assessed that the targeting of electric utilities could be related to increasing tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, potentially foreshadowing a disruptive cyberattack.

http://www.newsweek.com/yellowstone-...ecorded-677387

[Azor]

Please feel free to comment and critique...My thesis is that North Korea's WMD capabilities and conventional Seoul-threatening artillery can both be knocked out.


1. Washington confers with Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo and presents a plan to launch a disarming conventional first strike on North Korea with the objective of eliminating its CBRN and particularly nuclear capabilities. Secondary objectives would be minimizing casualties in general, protecting the region from North Korean retaliation and deterring or if necessary winning a full-scale Second Korean War. Neither regime change nor unification will be part of the objectives, in order to allay Sino-South Korean concerns, however, all parties will be required to contribute to the humanitarian aid required in the aftermath of the operation.


2. In order to prevent North Korean observance of attack preparations, the U.S. and South Korea will rely upon forces already in-theater or which are non-observable. The strike will solely be conducted with standoff (TLAM, JASSM-ER) and stealth (B-2) weapons. The assets will include US attack and cruise missile submarines already operating in the Pacific as well as strategic bombers already allocated to the Pacific as part of the "Pivot" (60%). These assets can reasonably be expected to bring 1,400 to 1,900 land-attack cruise missiles (or their equivalent in Mk 84 bombs via B-2s) into the theater. The U.S. Navy alone has 3,500 TLAMs stockpiled.


3. Follow-on forces, including the Carrier Strike Group in Japan, can be moved into position if necessary.


4. At zero hour, U.S. and ROK artillery along the DMZ open up on the 200-500 HARTS in North Korea to suppress any (counter)battery fire against allied forces or countervalue targets in and around Seoul. At the same time, cruise missiles begin striking the 350-430 SAM sites in North Korea, with an emphasis on C4ISR. B-2s can be applied where necessary, and possibly also against airbases hosting MiG-29 fighters. In addition, there are some 165-210 ballistic missiles on TELs that will need to be struck, as well as 35 to 60 CBRN facilities where WMDs could be mated to delivery systems. All in all, the target set for the strike would range from 750 to 1,200 discrete targets, of which U.S./ROK artillery in situ could tackle 200-500 of. Once the IADS is destroyed, the ROKAF/USAF can begin overflying North Korean airspace, and the forward-deployed USN CAW can also come into the picture.


5. Following this major strike and assuming that the operation is successful, it will be essential to prevent a North Korean conventional retaliatory invasion. The Allies will have to communicate their limited intentions to Pyongyang, but also to the DPRK forces along the DMZ, and airdrops of leaflets, medical supplies and food will go a long way. At this point, China could also intervene to stabilize North Korea by promising protection from a ground invasion and providing humanitarian aid.


6. If this sounds difficult: it is. But so too was Operation Desert Storm, and this is just as doable.


Sources include:

• My matrix: North Korea.jpg
  
• Roger Cavazos, "Mind the Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality", NAPSNet Special Reports, June 26, 2012,

[slapout9]

Desert Storm is definitely the model, I would add that affecting the power grid in such a way as to deny use to NoK military until end of war and then return as close to full power as possible would be a critical requirement. Otherwise the follow on humanitarian disaster would begin to nullify the victory political benefits.

[SWJ Blog]

The Korea Crisis: When Human Politics Apes That of Chimps

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[AdamG]

The notion of Chinese power over the North — that the countries are as "close as lips and teeth," according to a cliche recorded in the 3rd century — is so tantalizing that Donald Trump has spent a good part of his young presidency playing it up.
The reality, however, is that the complicated, often exasperating, relationship is less about friendship or political bonds than a deep and mutually uneasy dependency. Nominally allies, the neighbors operate in a near constant state of tension, a mix of ancient distrust and dislike and the grating knowledge that they are inextricably tangled up with each other, however much they might chafe against it.
This matters because if China is not the solution to the nuclear crisis, then outsiders long sold on the idea must recalibrate their efforts as North Korea approaches a viable arsenal of nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, something the CIA chief this week estimated as only a matter of months away.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ality-50624437

[AdamG]

Desert Storm is definitely the model, I would add that affecting the power grid in such a way as to deny use to NoK military until end of war and then return as close to full power as possible would be a critical requirement. Otherwise the follow on humanitarian disaster would begin to nullify the victory political benefits.

*Indicator*

WASHINGTON#— President Trump signed an executive order Friday allowing the Air Force to recall as many as 1,000 retired pilots to active duty to address a shortage in combat fliers, the White House and Pentagon announced.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...age/785344001/

[AdamG]

*Indicator*


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...age/785344001/

The U.S. Air Force is preparing to place its fleet of nuclear-armed B-52 bombers on 24-hour alert for the first time since 1991 amid escalating tensions with North Korea, the military branch's chief of staff said in a report Sunday.
Defense officials denied to Fox News that bombers were ordered to go on 24-hour alert, but#Gen. David Goldfein told Defense One#it could happen.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/10/22...cial-says.html

[slapout9]

*Indicator*


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...age/785344001/

Yep!

[AdamG]

This country is like a real-life Horror movie. I expect to post articles about satellite images of giant glowing NorK turtles next.

Japanese media reports 200 North Koreans died in a tunnel collapse at their nuclear test site.
In September, North Korea tested a powerful nuclear weapon that experts say rocked the mountain and made it unstable.
If the test site is totally compromised, the hazardous radioactive material could spread across the region.
After North Korea's most powerful ever nuclear test underground at Punggye-ri in the country's northeast, Japan's TV Asahi reports that up to 200 have been killed in a tunnel collapse.

'

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world...ple/ar-AAugbMh

[Azor]

Recently, the Congressional Research Service produced a report, providing 7 military options for Congress to consider (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R44994.pdf):

1. Maintain Military Status Quo

• This was the joint US-ROK policy from 2009 through 2016, often referred to as “strategic patience”. Since 2017, the priority level of the DPRK threat has been raised and US officials have openly discussed the possibility of preventive strikes against the DPRK

2. Enhanced Containment and Deterrence

• Forward-deploying more forces to the region and prepositioning equipment
• Enhanced missile defenses e.g. THAAD, Aegis BMD

3. Deny DPRK Acquisition of Delivery Systems Capable of Threatening CONUS

• Reduce emphasis on de-nuclearization and focus on delivery systems, especially nuclear-tipped ICBMs
• The US BMD could attempt to shoot down future S/M/IRBM launches to disrupt DPRK testing
• DPRK missile tests are specifically prohibited by various UNSC resolutions

4. Destroy ICBM Facilities and Launch Pads

• Similar to Option 3 in focus
• Involves airstrikes and cruise missile attacks, and possibly US and ROK SOFs

5. Destroy DPRK Nuclear Facilities

A more expansive variant of Option 4

6. DPRK Regime Change

7. Withdraw US Forces from ROK

In an earlier post on this thread, I had argued for a variant of Option 5, which would also involve the destruction of conventional DPRK artillery/missiles targeting Seoul for a mass casualty retaliation.

Unfortunately, the CRS relies upon DPRK conventional military data from 2015, and it also ignores various risks of not attacking, namely:

1. At what point will the DPRK halt its nuclear weapon production? At 50 fusion warheads? 100? 200? 300? If the DPRK arsenal becomes too formidable, it will force China to increase its "minimum credible deterrent", which will have follow-on effects on the US-Russia-China strategic balance in East Asia, as well as New START.

2. Any enhancements to ballistic missile defense will be met with suspicion by China and Russia, and provoke strategic competition (as noted above).

3. The DPRK state is inherently unstable due to the personal rule of KJU. What if it fractures or fails of its own accord? Will KJU be able to control his growing nuclear arsenal? What if you have ex-officers and officials as nuclear-armed warlords?

4. Any toleration of the DPRK as a nuclear power means that it becomes "too nuclear to fail", and therefore any attempt to undermine it - from sanctions to diplomatic isolation - will be seen as risky.

5. Any toleration also sends a signal to Iran, Sudan and others that nuclear faits accompli can work against the US.

[AdamG]

Parallel reading / Indicator #2
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...4&postcount=34

Reading music gratis

[AdamG]

This country is like a real-life Horror movie. I expect to post articles about satellite images of giant glowing NorK turtles next.

To wit

Disturbing reports have emerged from North Korea#stating that the country's nuclear program has had a crippling effect on nationals who live near a major testing site.
The Research Association of Vision of North Korea spoke with 21 defectors from#Kilju, a town near the Punngye-ri nuclear test site where six tests have been conducted, according to South Korean#newspaper#Chosun Ilbo.
The group painted an extremely bleak picture of the current state of the region, claiming that about 80 percent of trees planted in the city die and that all of their underground wells have run dry due to nuclear activity.
"I heard from a relative in Kilju that deformed babies were born in hospitals there," one defector told the paper.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/report-ap...220347441.html

[AdamG]

According to the website 38 North—a program from the U.S Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies—satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard on the country’s east coast, taken on November 5, shows the movement of parts and components, including sections of a submarine’s pressure hull in the yards adjacent to construction halls, which suggests that the SINPO-C ballistic missile submarine might be under construction.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ine/ar-BBF4gnn