Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[AdamG]

This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and etc & etc

Because all bloodless transitions of power are punctuated by High Explosives.

From the AP updates -

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) --
6:50 a.m.
The Zimbabwe army's takeover of the state broadcaster and action against some members of President Robert Mugabe's government has been praised by the chairman of the Liberation War Veterans' Association.
Chris Mutsvangwa, head of the war veterans' group issued a statement from Johannesburg praising Army General Constantino Chiwenga for carrying out "a bloodless correction of gross abuse of power." The statement said the army will return Zimbabwe to "genuine democracy."

Quack

Opposition leader Tendai Biti told Sky News a transitional authority is needed to secure a road map to democracy.
He said: "If it flaps like a duck, waggles like a duck, then it's a duck. This is a coup, there's no question about that.
"We condemn the extra-legal extraction of power from an elected civilian authority, but having said that we must acknowledge the deep structural underlying causes that would have led the army to do what they are doing now, whether it's pacification or whatever lipstick or mascara they might want to put on (it).
"This is Robert Mugabe's Waterloo and he must accept that. I pray the army do not harm him, I pray that they give him free passage if he wants to leave Zimbabwe."

https://news.sky.com/story/military-...purge-11126302

[AdamG]

Nothing to see here. Stop reading now. Move along.

South Africa’s Ruling ANC Says Wont Intervene In Zimbabwe [totally not a] Coup
https://www.pazimbabwe.com/world-new...abwe-coup.html

[davidbfpo]

It has been a long time since Zimbabwe has been on the front page of UK papers, even the free ones and often the lead item on TV news. So looking around I found these articles that help to explain what happened and why.

An academic background paper on the Zimbabwe military and their commercial activity - copied from China: 'The Curse of Military Commercialism in State Enterprises and Parastatals in Zimbabwe'.
Link:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...0.2016.1145981

By an American academic @ Edinburgh University: 'Mugabe's fall from grace unlikely to end Zimbabwe's political infighting and economic decay' and sub-titled The outlook in the breadbasket of southern Africa looks far from rosy with a leadership new in name alone.
Link:https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/c...decay-1.676238

Self-explanatory and short via WaPo: 'To understand the coup in Zimbabwe, you need to know about Grace Mugabe' by a Zimbabwean in exile.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/ampht...-grace-mugabe/

Another author in exile: 'Power to the party: Zimbabwe’s coup isn’t a revolution but a consolidation'. This ends with the best summary I read today:

What has happened in the past two weeks, and has come to fruition in the past 48 hours, is ultimately an internal adjustment. From the perspective of ZANU-PF, an immature and greedy challenger has now been silenced by the adults in the room. This is no revolution giving the power to the people. The army has done its duty in giving the power back to the Party.

Link:http://africanarguments.org/2017/11/...onsolidation/?

[AdamG]

One of the generals behind the move, army chief Constantino Chiwenga, visited Beijing last week — just days before tanks rolled into the streets of Harare.

China, which has enjoyed a close diplomatic and economic relationship with Zimbabwe for years, says Chiwenga’s visit was routine and part of a "normal military exchange.”

Asked if Chiwenga had briefed China on coup plans, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang would not discuss specifics.

Miles Blessing Tendi, a lecturer in African history and politics at the University of Oxford, says there is no way to be certain if China knew about Mugabe's fate but believes China's respect for sovereignty would make their involvement uncharacteristic.

“Above all else [China] wants stability, and a coup is a recipe for instability. So this does not sound like a Chinese move," Tendi said. "Something like this is always going to be held in secret talks. No one is going to come out and confirm it, so we may never know for sure."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/z...mugabe-n821286

[davidbfpo]

Below is a link to mainly academic community outlet 'The Conversation' with a number of new SME articles and few from the archive.

Professor Chan comments on the PRC link:

It is no coincidence that General Constantine Chiwenga, the Zimbabwe army chief, was visiting China when Mnangagwa was booted out. It seems likely that Chiwenga discussed his plan to intervene with the Chinese. Having supported and trained Mugabe’s rebel liberation army in the late 1970s and helped finance the country’s grossly mismanaged economy, Bejing must be relieved at the prospect of a return to actual economic management.

Link:https://theconversationuk.cmail20.co...5E7602346EC846

[AdamG]

Though the military that seized control after rolling out the tanks in the early hours of Wednesday was at pains to portray its takeover as anything but a coup, the reality is that the generals are now calling the shots. Troops are deployed on the streets of the capital, Harare, and at key security points, including the airport, only last week renamed the Robert Mugabe International Airport by a state apparatus that had one eye on a post-Mugabe era.What one observer called a “slow motion coup” is now playing out in Zimbabwe as the armed forces, led by General Constantino Chiwenga, seek to ease out the old regime and bring in something new. They are trying to do so in a manner that is palatable to regional powers, particularly South Africa, which have made clear they do not consider military coups an acceptable form of regime change.

https://www.ft.com/content/956bd71e-...8-7a9fb7d6163e

[davidbfpo]

Yes the competition for power appears to be over who sits in the chair and nearby - within ZANU-PF - and somehow party branches, including the Women's League (previously Grace Mugabe's fiefdom) have called upon Robert Mugabe to stand down.

This could far more significant, especially if there are really free & fair elections:

They make up a majority of Zimbabweans, with around three-quarters of the population under 35 years old today, and have borne the worst brunt of years of economic mismanagement.Millions of high-school and university graduates produced by one of Africa’s best education systems have sought work abroad as industry collapsed and inflation sky-rocketed. Others struggle to make ends meet with menial or manual piecemeal labour that makes no use of their skills.
The unexpected ousting of a man whose rule seemed like it would never end has brought the first glimpse of hope in years to many of them.

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-the-abnormal

[davidbfpo]

I have just listened to Robert Mugabe's TV broadcast, where he did not resign; so one must wonder why the saviours of the nation / party let him do this. Everyone knows he is an old man and has had better days. The broadcast ended with some mumbles not normally broadcast.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-a...ses-the-nation

The accompanying BBC report refers to:

In a live TV address, Mr Mugabe said he would preside over the ruling party's congress in December.The Zanu-PF earlier sacked him as party leader, and gave him less than 24 hours to resign as president or be impeached.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42046911


Via Twitter one of the BBC's correspondents:

So what now? The war veterans threatened more protests, the party threatened to impeach him, if he didn't step down... And yet the generals went along with tonight's long-winded, wordy display of studied ambiguity.

As for the most likely current successor BBC Radio Four has a short profile of the 'Crocodile' and one Tweet sums it up:

In Emmerson Mnangagwa you are going to get a man leading Zimbabwe who is as horrendous as Robert Mugabe if not worse

Link to programme:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09fj3xh

[davidbfpo]

Well after a hectic few days President Robert Mugabe has resigned, after his own once loyal party, ZANU-PF, disowned him and impeachment by parliament was in prospect.
The BBC has multiple stories:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42071488

Now will ZANU-PF hold onto power or share it meaningfully? Time will tell and for once Zimbabweans are optimistic. One exile I know simply said it would be a long time before their family returned - there are millions abroad, notably in South Africa.

So after a long run, this thread started in March 2017, with 387 posts and 139k views, I have merged the current thread into this and will open a new thread Zimbabwe: after Mugabe resigns.