TAHER ALI AL-AUQAILI, the chief of staff of Yemen’s army, has a spring in his step. After a year of stalemate, his five fronts are moving again.
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A string of events has led to the advance. In December the Houthis killed their erstwhile ally, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been Yemen’s president from 1978 to 2012, so the Houthis now fight alone. Arrests, killings and houses demolished by tank shells in the capital have stoked resentment against the rebels. Thousands of Mr Saleh’s people have fled.
Tales of rebel atrocities have spurred on the government’s forces. Fleeing Yemeni journalists say the Houthis killed over 30 colleagues, including some who worked for Mr Saleh’s media outlets. They say the rebels extorted money from relatives wanting to recover tortured bodies for burial. The Houthis, who claimed to champion the mathlumeen, or oppressed masses, may be turning into their oppressors.
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Mr Saleh’s death has also prompted the rancorous regional coalition assembled against the Houthis to bridge its differences. Muhammad bin Zayed, the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), had long distrusted Yemen’s army. Many of its soldiers support Islah, which has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that the UAE abhors. Prince Muhammad had hoped that Mr Saleh would switch sides and boot the Houthis from power.
But since Mr Saleh’s death Prince Muhammad has reconciled with Islah. He has given army units loyal to the Islamists air support. Government forces are on the verge of breaking out of Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, besieged by the Houthis for almost three years. They hope to recapture all of the coastal plain, where the Houthis have little support.
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By contrast, General Auqaili complains that his pleas for heavier weapons to match the Houthis go unanswered. The morale of his men is sapped because they are nine months behind with their pay. Some get by, selling weapons or information to the Houthis or al-Qaeda. So flush are arms bazaars that prices are 20% lower than before the war began in 2014.
Perhaps the biggest reason for the stalemate, however, is that many Yemenis benefit from it. Warlords and soldiers at checkpoints cream off humanitarian aid. Cities like Marib bask in the oil wealth and duties on electricity and imports that previously enriched the capital. Once notorious as a hotspot for kidnappings on behalf of al-Qaeda, it may now be Yemen’s safest city. Banks and schools function. Wages are paid on time. An oft-cited Yemeni adage holds that one people’s misfortune is another’s gain.
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