Syria in 2018-2019

[CrowBat]

And, further in regards of this:

...
Their newest achievement is something people were warning about already a year ago: a group called Popular Resistance of Raqqa was formed in #Raqqa, their goal is to defeat YPG/SDF. It's mainly made of Sunni Arab tribes.

Means: the Pentagon has finally provoked another war in the Middle East - and then another Sunni insurgency, too - and that while supporting a Marxist group considered a 'terrorist organisation' even by US laws.

Sons of the city of Raqqa announce the formation of Syrian resistance against the American occupation

Now the Pentagon is getting an IRGC-supported (pay attention at the logo including an AK-47 held up by a hand), Assad-affiliated insurgency inside the area it put under the control of the PKK in Syria.

Isn't this simply fantastic...?

[davidbfpo]

What some describe as a 'mystery' and Der Spiegel journalists have been at work dissecting:

one of the most mysterious battles yet in this increasingly complex war.

Their report in English comes via a UK-based academic observer:http://eaworldview.com/2018/03/200-r...ria-maybe-not/

[AdamG]

Meet Caleb Stevens.
He joined the YPG.
He zigged when he should have stayed at West Point.
Don't be like Caleb.

A handful of Americans have joined People's Protection Units, also known as YPG, and other Syrian militia groups allied with the United States in recent years, according to experts and the federal government. Most of those who sign up are young adults, idealists and those with a military background who sympathize, and perhaps romanticize, the groups' stated fight against Islamic State and oppression in Syria, Turkey and Iraq.
Stevens had spent two years at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point when he started getting restless to join the conflict.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-...cid=spartandhp

[AdamG]

Published by Polygraph.info — a fact-checking website produced by Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, news organizations that receive funding from the US government — the audio recordings paint a picture of Russian mercenaries essentially sent to die in an ill-conceived advance on a US-held position in Syria. Polygraph says the audio recordings are from a source close to the Kremlin.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...-forces-2018-2

First clip:
"The reports that are on TV about ... well, you know, about Syria and the 25 people that are wounded there from the Syrian f--- army and — well ... to make it short, we've had our asses f--- kicked. So one squadron f--- lost 200 people ... right away, another one lost 10 people ... and I don't know about the third squadron, but it got torn up pretty badly, too ... So three squadrons took a beating ... The Yankees attacked ... first they blasted the f--- out of us by artillery, and then they took four helicopters up and pushed us in a f--- merry-go-round with heavy caliber machine guns ... They were all shelling the holy f--- out of it, and our guys didn't have anything besides the assault rifles ... nothing at all, not even mentioning shoulder-fired SAMs or anything like that ... So they tore us to pieces for sure, put us through hell, and the Yankees knew for sure that the Russians were coming, that it was us, f--- Russians ... Our guys were going to commandeer an oil refinery, and the Yankees were holding it ... We got our f--- asses beat rough, my men called me ... They're there drinking now ... many have gone missing ... it's a total f--- up, it sucks, another takedown ... Everybody, you know, treats us like pieces of s--- ... They beat our asses like we were little pieces of s--- ... but our f--- government will go in reverse now, and nobody will respond or anything, and nobody will punish anyone for this ... So these are our casualties."
Second clip:
"Out of all vehicles, only one tank survived and one BRDM [armored reconnaissance vehicle] after the attack, all other BRDMs and tanks were destroyed in the first minutes of the fight, right away."
Third clip:
"Just had a call with a guy — so they basically formed a convoy, but did not get to their f--- positions by some 300 meters. One unit moved forward, the convoy remained in place, about 300 meters from the others. The others raised the American f--- flag, and their artillery started f--- ours really hard. Then their f--- choppers flew in and started f--- everybody. Ours just running around. Just got a call from a pal, so there are about 215 f--- killed. They simply rolled ours out f--- hard. Made their point. What the f--- ours were hoping for in there?! That they will f--- run away themselves? Hoped to f--- scare them away? Lots of people f--- so bad [they] can't be f--- ID'd. There was no foot soldiers [on the American side]; they simply f--- our convoy with artillery."

[Dishonesty]

Mickey Mouse Air Force in action:

Two Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter jets have successfully completed a two-day program of tests in Syria
Shoigu said. "I can say that the trials were success and the planes returned home a week ago."


http://tass.com/defense/992335

[AdamG]

UNITED NATIONS — North Korea has been shipping supplies to the Syrian government that could be used in the production of chemical weapons, United Nations experts contend.
The evidence of a North Korean connection comes as the United States and other countries have accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons on civilians, including recent attacks on civilians in the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta using what appears to have been chlorine gas.
The supplies from North Korea include acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers, according to a report by United Nations investigators. North Korean missile technicians have also been spotted working at known chemical weapons and missile facilities inside Syria, according to the report, which was written by a panel of experts who looked at North Korea’s compliance with United Nations sanctions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/w...sanctions.html

or

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/polit...ons/index.html

or

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43219614

[Azor]

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...-from-lebanon/

The US has denied involvement...

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON - The likelihood of a military strike against Syria after a suspected chemical weapons attack increased Sunday as President Donald Trump said there would be a "big price to pay" and officials in France vowed the country would "do its duty" in responding.

France called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday to discuss the weekend attack, and eight other nations joined in the request, including the United States and Britain.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/ar...l-12815978.php

[Azor]

From the Jewish News Syndicate: https://www.jns.org/analysis-latest-...ranian-threat/

(April 9, 2018 / JNS) The recent missile strike on a military airbase deep in the central Syrian desert looks like the latest installment in a long-standing Israeli campaign to police its red lines against highly dangerous developments to its north.

Usually, such strikes are driven by incoming intelligence of threatening activity underway in Syria—activity that breaches Jerusalem’s ban on Iran from constructing military bases in Syria, from setting up weapons factories there and from using Syria as a transit zone for the trafficking of advanced arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran is keen to cash in on its heavy investment and bloody involvement on behalf of the survival of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. That means attempting to expand the Iranian military presence on Syrian soil. Israel is determined to stop this at all costs.

By chance or not, the strike also comes amid fallout from the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons against rebel-held areas over the weekend, leading to warnings from President Donald Trump of likely military strikes in retaliation.

Nevertheless, the precise reason that triggered the latest strike remains unknown and can probably only be found in classified intelligence reports.

What is clear, however, is that over the past several years, Israel has reportedly carried out a series of strikes targeting the Iranian-led axis in Syria. If left unchecked, Iran would flood Syria with Shi’a militia groups and terrorist organizations, arm them with rockets and missiles, and set up terrorist cells. It would convert southern Syria into a new launch pad for attacks against Israel.

Iran’s Quds Force, the elite overseas unit, and Hezbollah use Syria to manufacture and smuggle precision-guided ballistic missiles, heavy rockets, advanced surface-to-air missiles and surface-to-sea missiles. Israel has reportedly disrupted these activities on a regular basis.

Lebanon is already a well-established Iranian rocket base, filled to the brim with 120,000 rockets embedded in 200 Shi’a Lebanese villages. All of these projectiles are pointed at Israel. Under Iran’s plans, Syria, too, would become a major threat.

The military base reportedly struck in the latest attack, known as “T4,” has a history. In early February, Israeli fighter jets destroyed an Iranian drone control cabin that was stationed there, after Iranian operators sitting in it flew a drone into Israeli airspace. It’s likely that the Iranian operators were killed in that attack.

According to reports that emerged on Monday, Iranian military personnel were killed in Monday’s strike as well. That would seem to indicate that whatever was going on at the T4 airbase—hundreds of kilometers from the Israeli border—constituted a serious security threat to Israel, and that Iran has again tested the waters, seeing how far it can go in building up its military presence before provoking an Israeli response.

This dangerous pattern looks set to continue. Each incident represents a potential escalation point that can spiral into a wider conflict between Israel and the radical Shi’a axis that is taking over much of the Middle East.

The Russian complication

What makes this situation more tense is the fact that Russia acts as the air force of the Shi’a axis in Syria. Russian airpower helped turn the tide of the war in Assad’s favor, a fact that has probably given the Syrian dictator the confidence to unleash the horrors of chemical warfare on Sunni areas and make a mockery of the international community in the process.

Russia has, through its waves of airstrikes in Syria, gained a warm-water port at Syria’s Tartus naval base, and it has an airbase at Hmeimim on the Syrian coastline. It has moved advanced air-defense batteries to Syria. Moscow has used its intervention to position itself as a superpower actor in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the United States has decreased its influence in Syria to a bare minimum.

Israel seeks no conflict with Russia, but is unwilling to ignore the activities of Moscow’s allies—something Israel has communicated to Russia repeatedly.

The Russians have so far been able to help de-escalate the situation by convincing their radical and dubious allies to tone down their responses to Israel’s self-defense actions. The Iranian axis may not have needed much convincing; it remains fundamentally deterred by Israel’s vast firepower and intelligence capabilities. Iran is keen on consolidating its control of Syria at this stage, rather than opening a new active front against Israel right now, which would risk its entire Syrian project. But if it succeeds in its goal of converting Syria into a new base of hostility towards Israel, there can be no doubt that sooner or later, it would activate this front.

These events put Russia’s project in Syria at risk, and this poses a complication. Any full-scale conflict that erupts would place the Assad regime in existential threat, and Russia could see its investment go down the drain.

Statements released by Moscow on Monday indicate Russian displeasure at Israel’s alleged actions.

Yet Israel has responded that it will not blink when it comes to defending its security.

It’s also hard to ignore the fact that the alleged Israeli strike came hours after a horrendous chemical massacre was carried out, once again, by the Assad regime against a rebel-held area. Scenes of men, women and children murdered through the use chemical-weapons agents have once again flooded the world, with an ally of Iran and Russia—the Assad regime—again committing a ghastly crime against humanity.

As a result, it cannot be ruled out that the latest attack also served as an Israeli signal of intolerance to the usage of chemical weapons in the region.

Whatever triggered the strike, one thing seems certain: Iran will continue to test Israel’s lines, and Israel will continue to enforce them.

[davidbfpo]

Or you can try this by a Forum member, published several days ago now and only just discovered.
Link:http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...4647?page=show

[CrowBat]

Some rather amusing political/security commentary here: https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/statu...50969680396288

Fairly significant news: Israel did not warn Russia before it struck Syrian airbase yesterday. The airbase hit (T4) had previously served as a major Russian operating base, until just a few months ago.

The first is 'nothing new', the second is 'nonsense'.

The Russians did make some use of T-4, but only back in 2015-2016. They aren't around that base already since it was nearly overrun by the Daesh, in December 2016.

Seems Tel Aviv does not trust Moscow.

Since when does Israel trust anybody?

Israel has clearly not been pleased with Russia's inability or unwillingness to restrain Iranian ops in Syria. Russia's Sept 2017 assurance that it would not allow Iran/Hezbollah to threaten Israel has been followed instead by enhanced IRGC drone presence.

This is also nonsense.

What should the Russians do to 'restrain' the IRGC, PLEASE?

They can barely keep Assad in power.

In February, the Israeli Air Force hit T4 airbase hard after Iran sent a drone from there into Israeli airspace. By some estimates (which :?: ), IAF destroyed 50% :?: Syria's air defences as it struck four Iranian and eight Syrian sites, with Russia inactive.

If 4 SAM-sites are '50% of the Assad air defence', then yes (for details, see the link posted by David, above).

Israel's barely even talking to Russians at this point, who are losing control of situation.

Nah... really? Russians are 'losing control of situation'...?

Oh, and BTW: since when are the Russians 'in control' of the 'situation' in Syria, actually...?

But, sigh, that's a 'serious commentator' in our days. Well, after reading this, all I can conclude is that there's absolutely nothing new on this planet. I'm back to my 'historical' research and lurking...

[Azor]

What say you to the contention that 2 Israeli fighters fired 8 missiles (Popeyes or Delilahs?), of which 3-5 were shot down by Syrian air defenses?

[Azor]

From Babak Taghvaee (https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...85568260804608):

• Russia has asked Iran to provide the Russian Air Force with access to the IRIAF's 3rd Tactical Fighter Base in Hamedan to deploy heavy bombers and tankers, and to use it as a refueling base for fighter jets deployed over Syria
• Earlier in August 2016, the RuAF was permitted to deploy 8 Su-34 fighters and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers Hamedan, but after the Russians deliberately leaked pictures of their bombers in the base, Iran forced them to leave
• It is possible that Iran will refuse Russia access to Hamedan, but may offer the 5th Tactical Fighter Base at Omidiyeh again
• The motivation behind Russia's request is concern that Russian aircraft may need to evacuate Hmeimim Air Base in the event of US-led airstrikes on Syria
• This information comes from a "valid" source in the IRIAF, according to Taghvaee

[Azor]

Also from Babak Taghvaee:

• Israeli F-15Is used Delilah cruise missiles to target the maintenance hangars of the Syrian Arab AF's Tiyas Air Base
• One was being used for the repair of Su-24MK2s of the SyAAF's 819th Fighter Squadron
• The other hangar was being used by the IRCG's Aerospace Force (IRGCAF), which was probably the target of the Israeli strike

See links for images of the damage to Tiyas:

• https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...30599122194432
• https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...54020226801664

[CrowBat]

What say you to the contention that 2 Israeli fighters fired 8 missiles (Popeyes or Delilahs?), of which 3-5 were shot down by Syrian air defenses?

Except 'for PR purposes', there are always at least two, more likely four times more Israeli aircraft involved in every such operation. That's that way already since the Battle of Saunu, in November 1966.

I've got no idea who launched this nonsense about 'two F-15Is', but at least eight were involved.

And re. Taghvaee: check any translation of the Iranian Constitution you can get. Basing of foreign military in Iran is strictly prohibited, so also (quote), 'in peace'. The IRGC did attempt to ignore that paragraph back in 2016, and still: when Majlis (Iranian Parliament) began to protest, the Russians had to be kicked out.

Now, Omidiyeh - former TFB.5 of the IRAF, near Agha Jari - was meanwhile taken over by the IRGC. That's contrary to TFB.3 (near Hamedan), which remains an IRIAF base, and where the Russians landed back in August 2016. Means: the IRGC might try it basing the Russians at one of its own bases in the future.

However, that's not changing anything about the Iranian constitution: such an action would be a gross violation of fundamental Iranian laws.

And re. his claims about 'maintenance hangars' at T-4: actually one of hangars was used to store one Su-24MK that was out of service since quite early during the war, and few helicopters. No 'maintenance' there was undertaken, while everything that was inside was destroyed. And, funny that he's mentioning 'SyAAF's 819th Fighter Squadron': when I published that designation in an article about the SyAAF, in AirForces Monthly Feb/2017, he wrote to the editor that no such unit exists.

[Azor]

From CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/trum...ly-soon.html):

President Donald Trump said Thursday that he would meet with Defense Secretary James Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – and that a decision on whether the U.S. military will respond to alleged Syrian chemical attacks will be made "fairly soon."

A source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told CNBC the U.S. was considering striking eight potential targets. Those targets include two Syrian airfields, a research center and a chemical weapons facility.

The source also noted that Syria's military has repositioned a significant amount of air assets to Russian-controlled airfields in hopes that Washington would be reluctant to strike there.

"We're looking very very seriously, very closely at that whole situation and we'll see what happens folks," Trump told reporters Thursday.

Over the past five days, Trump has sharpened his rhetoric against Syria and its most powerful ally Russia and issued a threat via Twitter of a potential U.S. strike against the war-torn country...

[davidbfpo]

Anthony Cordesman, from CSIS, a 'long read' entitled 'Syria: When and How Does This War End?'; which opens with:

In early 2003, when he was still commander of the 101^st Airborne Division and still preparing for the invasion of Iraq, General David Petraeus asked a key question: “How does this war end?” Some fifteen years later, we are no closer to an answer than we were then in Iraq, and we seem to be no closer in Syria. The purpose of war is never to win military victories. The purpose is to shape a peace that serves the lasting strategic objectives of the nation that fights it. We have not been able to focus on this goal in any of our “wars”. Not only Iraq and Syria, but Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and the other much smaller fights against terrorism and extremism in west and east Africa

(Ends with) The full message of the previous quotes from the World Bank and CIA on the civil impact of the fighting in Syria should be all too clear. It is just as important to have a sound civil-military strategy in fighting terrorism – and to focus on stability and peace – as it is in counterinsurgency. As the Syrian example shows all too clearly, focusing on the fighting and terrorism alone can never be enough. Even if one wins some form of tactical victory, one still must live with the reality that follows, and purely military solutions will always account to the equivalent of cut and run.”.

Link:https://www.csis.org/analysis/syria-...w-does-war-end

From the News Statesman (a UK weekly magazine, usually on the Left) two Kings College War Studies academics have 'Syria’s world war; How Britain and the US are being dragged into the defining conflict of our times'. It closes with:

Once again, Syria has proven to be the problem that cannot be ignored, however much the West has tried. The ugly status quo engineered at great human cost by the Syrian regime – with the support of Russia and Iran – has been disturbed. Assad has brazenly continued to deploy chemical weapons on a regular basis with no great fear of any serious costs. For many years, the West has pursued diplomacy neutered by the absence of any willingness to deploy force; today, the danger is of a reflexive use of arms without any considered diplomatic strategy. These whimsical and fleeting fits of moral panic directed towards the defining crisis of our generation do little to defuse a febrile international climate.

Link:https://www.newstatesman.com/science...trangers-lives

[Azor]

Military Movements after the April 2018 Chemical Weapons Attack: http://iswresearch.blogspot.ca/2018/...pril-2018.html

• 2 Russian Su-24M aircraft harassed the USS Donald Cook and the French frigate Aquitaine on April 11. The Russian Navy also conducted a firing drill off the Syrian coast
• Russia reportedly deployed four Tu-95MS and Tu-160M strategic bombers as well as Il-78M tanker aircraft from the Engels Air Base in Russia. Their final destination is unknown although they may be bound for Syria or the Hamedan Air Base in Iran; Russia previously targeted locations in Syria from the Engels Air Base
• Pro-regime forces deployed SAMs, including six Russian Pantsir-S2s, to the Mezzeh Military Air Base and other sites in Damascus
• Pro-regime officials also reportedly issued an alert to the Syrian Arab Army to evacuate personnel and assets from military bases across Syria.
• Regime and Russian aircraft relocated closer to heavily-defended commercial airfields across Syria: from the Seen (Sayqal), Dumayr, Shayrat, and the T-4 (Tiyas) Air Bases, to the Bassel al Assad International Airport in Latakia, the Nayrab Air Base outside Aleppo City, and Damascus International Airport
• Iranian proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah, reportedly began exiting Syria into Lebanon and Iraq
• Unspecified pro-regime elements reportedly evacuated a branch of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Jamraya near Damascus

Coalition Strike Options: https://www.iiss.org/en/militarybala...ia-assets-9a80

• In terms of tactical aviation, only two squadrons remain active over Syria: the 336th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron with F-15E Strike Eagles based at Mowafaq al Salti in Jordan, and a half-strength F-22A Raptor squadron at Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates, believed currently to be the 94th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron
• The US also still has two Expeditionary Attack Squadrons (46th and 361st) equipped with MQ-9A Reaper UAVs in theatre, based in Jordan and Kuwait, but the utility of these assets and their UK Royal Air Force (RAF) counterparts for the kind of missions being contemplated is limited by the contested nature of the airspace
• The bomber detachment at Al Udeid in Qatar is also still in place: the 34th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron’s B-1B Lancers began replacing the previous B-52H Stratofortress rotation at the beginning of April
• Additional bombers, particularly the B-2A Spirit stealth bombers, either flying from their home bases in the continental United States, or staging from forward bases such as Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, are an obvious way of getting combat power into theatre for an initial strike
• Both the UK and France also have squadron-sized tactical combat aircraft deployments in the region as part of the campaign against ISIS
• The RAF has a mixed force of six Typhoon FGR4s and eight Tornado GR4s deployed to Akrotiri in Cyprus, and the French have six Rafales deployed to Al Dhafra in the UAE under Escadron de Chasse 1/7 Provence and a detachment of four additional Rafales stationed at Prince Hassan airbase in Jordan
• The RAF Tornados and the French Rafales are capable of conducting stand-off attacks from outside Syrian airspace using Storm Shadow and Scalp EG cruise missiles, and additional long-range cruise missile missions could be flown direct from France or the UK, as they previously were during operations over Libya in 2011.
• There is no aircraft-carrier group currently assigned to either the US Navy’s 5th or 6th Fleet
• Of the four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers carrying Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are forward based with the 6th Fleet, only one, the USS Donald Cook, was in the Eastern Mediterranean on 7 April
• Two of the others, USS Ross and USS Porter, were conducting port visits in the UK and France, and the fourth, USS Carney, had recently returned to its homeport of Rota in Spain
• Currently deployed alongside the Donald Cook is the French Navy destroyer Aquitaine, equipped with the new Missile De Croisière Naval (MdCN) cruise missile but with a smaller number of total launch cells compared to her US counterparts
• The UK Type-45 destroyer HMS Duncan is currently in the Eastern Mediterranean as the flagship of NATO’s Standing Maritime Group 2: although she is not equipped for land-attack missions, she may still be diverted to the theatre in order to bolster the air-defence capability of any task group (and indeed RAF Akrotiri) against potential reprisals.
• Below the waves the picture is somewhat better: the USS John Warner, a Virginia-class Block III submarine, left Gibraltar last week, and after a brief stop at Toulon on 9th April is now highly likely to be in the Eastern Mediterranean
• The Ohio-class converted guided-missile submarine USS Florida (capable of accommodating up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles) was believed to be in the Indian Ocean in March, but may have subsequently returned through the Suez Canal and re-entered the Mediterranean, and it is possible that additional submarines from the 5th and 6th Fleets have been moved to join them
• Although there is at present no official confirmation from the British government, several media reports have suggested that at least one of the Royal Navy’s submarines, able to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, may also be en route

[AdamG]

Note: the map with missile ranges is worth socking away for later use.

The Russian military has claimed that the Syrian air defences, whose most modern weapon is a three-decades-old Russian-supplied anti-aircraft system, shot down 71 of 103 missiles fired by the US and its allies, the UK and France.

As further details began to emerge about the sites targeted by the US-led strikes, Col Gen Sergei Rudskoi of the Russian military said the strikes had not caused any casualties and that Syrian military facilities suffered only minor damage.

Although it was not possible to verify the claims, the most up-to-date system that Moscow has supplied to the Syrian regime is the short range Pantsir S-1, which has an anti-missile capability.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ority-missiles

Source is the Guardian, so compensate for the usual spin rate.

[davidbfpo]

A public French 'national assessment' of the Douma CW strike; well-written IMHO and some horrible photos on the last page.
Link:https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/p..._cle0c76b5.pdf