North Korea 2017 onwards

[davidbfpo]

A short (10 mins) MNSBC news report:

Richard Engel visits The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, where academics use publicly available maps and media, and a lot of creative problem solving, to assess North Korea's progress toward nuclear weapon capability

Link:https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/...ist=associated

Quite interesting use of open sources and crowd sourcing. Their website is:https://www.nonproliferation.org/about-2/

The professor is none other than Jeffrey Lewis, who is Arms Control Wonk:https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ and a respected SME. His short bio:https://www.nonproliferation.org/experts/jeffrey-lewis/

[AdamG]

UNITED NATIONS — North Korea has been shipping supplies to the Syrian government that could be used in the production of chemical weapons, United Nations experts contend.
The evidence of a North Korean connection comes as the United States and other countries have accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons on civilians, including recent attacks on civilians in the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta using what appears to have been chlorine gas.
The supplies from North Korea include acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers, according to a report by United Nations investigators. North Korean missile technicians have also been spotted working at known chemical weapons and missile facilities inside Syria, according to the report, which was written by a panel of experts who looked at North Korea’s compliance with United Nations sanctions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/w...sanctions.html

or

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/27/polit...ons/index.html

or

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43219614

[Azor]

From Garwin and Postal at FAS: https://fas.org/rlg/airborne.pdf

Summary:

• The DPRK has demonstrated missiles with near-ICBM range and tested underground nuclear or thermonuclear explosives of yield estimated to be 100 or even 250 kilotons—comparable in yield to many of the current U.S. strategic warheads.
• Although there is not evidence that the DPRK has mastered the technology of a ruggedized warhead and reentry vehicle that would survive the 60 G deceleration and heating of atmospheric reentry at ICBM range, they could do so in time. It is also not clear that any of the DPRK’s nuclear weapons can yet be carried to ICBM range, but that also is only a matter of time.
• We sketch here an "Airborne Patrol System to Destroy DPRK ICBMs in Powered Flight" incorporating the well established MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) remotely piloted aircraft (RPA), The Big Wing version of the MQ-9 has a loiter time of some 37 hours at 500 miles from itsairbase in South Korea or Japan, carrying two Boost-Phase Intercept missiles assembled of available rocket motors, e.g., from Orbital ATK.
• A two-stage rocket would provide 4 km/s, with a 75 or 55 kg homing payload providing an additional 2.0 or 1.5 km/s divert velocity, and carrying a 25 kg seeker that would home optically on the booster flame and the ICBM’s hard body.
• All of the technologies needed to implement the proposed system are proven and no new technologies are needed to realize the system .
• The baseline system could technically be deployed in 2020, and would be designed to handle up to 5 simultaneous ICBM launches.
• The potential value of this system could be to quickly create an incentive for North Korea to take diplomatic negotiations seriously and to destroy North Korean ICBMs if they are launched at the continental United States.
• The proposed Airborne Patrol System could be a “first-step system” that can be constantly improved over time. For example, we have analyzed the system assuming that interceptors have a top speed of 4 km/s with a 25 kg seeker. We believe that faster, or lighter and smaller interceptors can be built that would increase the firepower of the system and possibly its capability against somewhat shorter range ballistic missiles like the Nodong – which poses a threat to Japan.
• Since the Airborne Patrol System would be based on the use of drones that would loiter outside of North Korean airspace, the electronic countermeasures needed to defeat distant surface-to-air missile defenses would be easy to implement because of the long-range between the drones and the air-defense radars.
• The availability of relatively inexpensive high-payload long-endurance drones will also improve, along with the electronic countermeasures
• systems to protect them.

[AdamG]

Q: So why are the NorKs willing to talk, now?

Update: In a tweet early on Wednesday, President Trump confirmed reports about the C.I.A. director Mike Pompeo’s secret meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying the session “went very smoothly” and that “a good relationship was formed.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Trump dispatched the C.I.A. director Mike Pompeo to North Korea to meet with its leader, Kim Jong-un, in recent weeks to lay the groundwork for a summit meeting between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump, two people briefed on the secret trip said on Tuesday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/17/w...mit-talks.html

[AdamG]

SEOUL (Reuters) - Satellite imagery shows North Korea dismantling facilities at its nuclear test site, but experts say the images can’t reveal whether it is the first step toward full denuclearization, or an attempt to cloak nuclear capabilities from outside observers.
North Korea’s intentions were thrown further into doubt on Wednesday, when it abruptly announced it may “reconsider” meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in June if the United States continues to insist on unilateral denuclearization.
Commercial satellite imagery - including photos taken by Planet Labs as recently as May 14 - show North Korea removing some structures around its nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, experts say.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKCN1IH0OQ

[AdamG]

STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD
DR. WILLIAM R. GRAHAM, CHAIRMAN
DR. PETER VINCENT PRY, CHIEF OF STAFF
COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES FROM
ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK
TO
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY
SUBCOMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY
HEARING
“EMPTY THREAT OR SERIOUS DANGER: ASSESSING NORTH KOREA’S RISK TO THE HOMELAND”
October 12, 2017

North Korea Nuclear EMP Attack: An Existential Threat
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/HM/H...P-20171012.pdf
Interesting.

We recommend that the President direct the Secretary of Defense to deploy Aegis-ashore
missile interceptors along the Gulf of Mexico coast to plug the hole in U.S. missile defenses.
The U.S. has no Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radars or missile interceptors facing
south, and is largely blind and defenseless from that direction, including to missiles launched
from submarines or off ships, or from a nuclear-armed satellite orbiting on a south polar
trajectory

[AdamG]

Understatement du jour

Washington (CNN)Dennis Rodman, a retired professional basketball player, is one of the few people who knows both US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and that makes him an important resource, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in a CNN interview.

CNN's Chris Cuomo noted about Rodman on Monday night, "He is our best resource at this point right now for understanding the minds of the two men, especially Kim Jong Un."
Clapper responded: "I agree, Chris ... as weird as it is ... this whole thing is unconventional."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/11/polit...-tv/index.html

[AdamG]

Cyber-security experts have expressed surprise that journalists at the summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un in Singapore were given USB-powered fans. Some warned reporters not to plug them in to their laptops, as USB devices can carry malware.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/technology-43128073

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies believe that North Korea has increased its production of fuel for nuclear weapons at multiple secret sites in recent months — and that Kim Jong Un may try to hide those facilities as he seeks more concessions in nuclear talks with the Trump administration, U.S. officials told NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-k...-say-u-n887926

[AdamG]

North Korea appears to be working on a new submarine capable of firing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, according to information gathered by South Korea's military. Kim Hack-yong, a South Korean lawmaker who until a few weeks ago was head of the legislature's defense committee, told The Wall Street Journal that North Korea appeared to working on the sub at the port of Sinpo on the country's east coast.

http://www.businessinsider.com/north...issiles-2018-7

[AdamG]

Missed this one. Alibi Fire.

SEOUL (THE KOREA HERALD/ASIA NEWS NETWORK, REUTERS) - North Korea may be mass producing biological weapons in a research lab that studies agricultural chemicals, Pyongyang Bio-Technical Institute, a US media outlet reported on Saturday (Oct 21), citing an academic report.

Radio Free Asia cited a report released by Belfer Centre of Harvard University's Kennedy School in October, which says the communist state already has biological weapons and its industrial facilities are able to produce such weapons.

"It is likely that anthrax and small pox is already used as a biological weapon," the report said. "North Korean soldiers are vaccinated against small pox, and so are US Army (personnel) stationed in South Korea - against small pox and anthrax."

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/ea...weapons-report

[AdamG]

Predictable shennanigans are predictable.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. spy satellites have detected renewed activity at the North Korean factory that produced the country’s first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States, a senior U.S. official said on Monday, in the midst of talks to compel Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arms.

Photos and infrared imaging indicate vehicles moving in and out of the facility at Sanumdong, but do not show how advanced any missile construction might be, the official told Reuters on condition of anonymity because the intelligence is classified.

The Washington Post reported on Monday that North Korea appeared to be building one or two new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles at the large research facility on the outskirts of Pyongyang, citing unidentified officials familiar with intelligence reporting.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-kor...004503759.html

[AdamG]

Listen to the whirr of backpeddling...

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - North Korea's foreign minister told the United Nations on Saturday continued sanctions were deepening its mistrust in the United States and there was no way the country would give up its nuclear weapons unilaterally under such circumstances. Ri Yong Ho told the world body's annual General Assembly that North Korea had taken "significant goodwill measures" in the past year, such as stopping nuclear and missiles tests, dismantling the nuclear test site, and pledging not to proliferate nuclear weapons and nuclear technology.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/north-kore...152628101.html

[AdamG]

Nov. 14 (UPI) — South Korea’s spy agency said North Korea has continued to miniaturize nuclear warheads, even after the Singapore summit between Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a South Korean press report.

Members of a South Korean parliamentary intelligence committee told Newsis on Wednesday Seoul’s national intelligence service has confirmation North Korea’s miniaturization of nuclear weapons has been ongoing, despite agreements to denuclearize.

The committee had met to discuss the report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, addressing the issue of undeclared missile bases in the North.

Seoul’s spy agency said the Sakkanmol missile base, the object of the CSIS study, was an “already known” quantity in the intelligence community.

https://www.upi.com/Report-North-Kor.../6561542205176

[AdamG]

The North Korean soldier who defected to the South in a hail of bullets last year is a general’s son but says most Northerners of his age have no loyalty to Kim Jong-un, according to a Japanese newspaper. Oh Chong Song’s dramatic dash across the border at the Panmunjom truce village in the Demilitarized Zone – under fire from his comrades – made global headlines last year, and saw him hospitalised with serious injuries.

It is very rare for the North’s troops to defect at Panmunjom, a major tourist attraction and the only place on the frontier where forces from the two sides come face-to-face. The 25-year-old Oh is the son of a major-general, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun newspaper reported, in what it said was the defector’s first media interview.

But despite his privileged birth – he described himself as “upper class” – he felt no allegiance to the North’s leadership.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...jong-un-report

[davidbfpo]

One must wonder if the defector's father is: a) still a general; b) alive.

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea has continued to produce bomb fuel while in denuclearization talks with the United States and may have produced enough in the past year to add as many as seven nuclear weapons to its arsenal, according to a study released just weeks before a planned second summit between the North Korean leader and U.S. President Donald Trump.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKCN1Q10EL

[AdamG]

I'll take "predictable outcomes" for $400, Alex. Time to test the orbital lasers again, Space Force guys.

Satellite imagery suggests that North Korea may be taking steps to reactivate a partially decommissioned long-range rocket test site on the 'country's west coast.

Experts say they see evidence that workers are rebuilding at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. In a matter of days, a rocket-engine test stand and a large transfer structure have been reassembled, according to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a senior fellow for imagery analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The structures were taken down over the course of last summer, Bermudez says, and reassembled in a matter of days.

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/70055...cket-test-site

[davidbfpo]

A former Washington insider's commentary on recent matters and face-to-face diplomacy has limits. Yes he is ex-CIA. He starts with:

Time to face it: North Korea is almost certainly going to remain a nuclear weapons state. Its nuclear capabilities are now impressive, well-documented and embraced by Kim Jong Un as regime survival tools. But in assessing adversaries, you also always have to weigh intent. And that is the question least well-explored: What exactly does North Korea plan to do with its nuclear weapons — and how should that affect our perception of the threat?

The short article ends with:

Such personal relationships are important in diplomacy, but they need to be married to a clear, flexible and persistent strategy — one that seems so far to be missing.

Link:https://www.ozy.com/opinion/-lets-fa...ts-nukes/95413