Somalia (land & sea) 2018 onwards

[davidbfpo]

This paper was produced by the Hiraal Institute, which is based in Somalia and has had recommendations by a "lurker". I noted these two sentences:

At its height in 2010, the Jabahaat numbered more than 8000 men....The total number of the Jabahaat fighters is therefore at least 5000 men. Their decline is both a reflection of the pressures the group has come against and also its reconfiguration away from a conventional posture to a guerrilla strategy from 2011.

Link:https://hiraalinstitute.org/al-shaba...itary-machine/

[davidbfpo]

Mark Bowden has returned to Somalia and has this commentary. The sub-title gives a hint:

Twenty-five years after the battle chronicled in the best-selling book, the author argues that we’ve learned the wrong lessons about fighting terrorism

Link:https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...WtWd1WWQI8Y.99

[davidbfpo]

A topical commentary on Al-Shabaab in Somalia, two good maps of activity in 2017 and 2018. This comment explains why they retain popular support:

Al Shabaab’s attacks make headlines, but the al Qaeda group offers something real to local Somalis. Perhaps incredibly, the group provides more efficient and less corrupt governance than the Somali Federal Government in some areas. Many Somalis prefer al Shabaab’s justice over the Somali courts—even traveling from government-controlled areas to al Shabaab-held areas to seek justice. Al Shabaab courts deliver a verdict faster and are more likely to enforce it. This benefit allows al Shabaab to maintain support and attack zones, despite U.S. airstrikes.

Link:https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/fight-against-al-shabaab-isnt-over?

This post will be cross-posted on the main Somalia thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...)-2018-onwards

Kenya has its own thread, where thsi thread will e merged one day:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ya-(catch-all)

[AdamG]

The U.S. military said it carried out an airstrike in Somalia that killed 52 al-Shabab extremists in response to an attack on Somali forces. The U.S. Africa Command statement says the airstrike occurred on Saturday near Jilib in Middle Juba region. The U.S. says Somali forces had come under attack by a 'large group' of the al-Qaida-linked extremists.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ocial-facebook

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to a SWJ item and this optimistic comment. I note AMISOM has been in place since 2007 and is due to leave in 2021; is it me, but the Somali nation-state seems unchanged in either the will or capacity to succeed?
Link:http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2019/03/06/assessing-challenges-to-amisoms-exit/?

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this article, with plenty of links.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/wh...national-army/

[davidbfpo]

A rare article on defection from Al-Shabab and by a SME on the topic. A sample sentence:

The focus of the program continues to be to win back the hearts and minds of those once thought lost to jihadists and hellbent on unraveling Somalia's social, cultural and political fabric.

Link:https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/03/o...gan/index.html
If you believe the defectors presented there is some insight into Somalia today.