Next Small War

[Steve Blair]

One more reason not to trigger an insurection to topple it.

But in this case you have no guarantee that the "legitimate" follow-on to the current regime will be practical.

I would also point out as an aside that it's not just the U.S. that needs to monitor Iran's programs. There are other nations that have (or should have) an interest in such things.

[aktarian]

But in this case you have no guarantee that the "legitimate" follow-on to the current regime will be practical.

It depends on who next guys are. If it's just new geenration of mullahs it will be same. If it's young non-clerical leadership they woun't play by religious rules.

Of course this doesn't mean they will be friendly to West but they woun't be hostile either.

I would also point out as an aside that it's not just the U.S. that needs to monitor Iran's programs. There are other nations that have (or should have) an interest in such things.

I think they do. And Iran isn't hostile to others same way as it's toward US or Israel.

[Tom Odom]

Gents,

Small wars as defined by the USMC are already taking place. Darfur , Sudan has seen US airlift transporting my old friends, the Rwandan Patriotic Army, as peacekeepers. The "small war" in the Congo has claimed more than 3 MILLION dead since 1997; periodic flare ups are routine. Zimbabwe is headed toward the abyss; look for bloodletting there in the near to mid term.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict morphs and bubbles as it has since the mid-1930s. I fervently hope that we stay out of that one. Distance and balance are our only friends in that long struggle.

Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria are all candidates for a fiction writer's potential best seller on turmoil. Such fiction would hardly be a stretch.

I won't go into Iraq; the schisms before the war are there after the war. They will be there when we leave.

Those are my regions: Asia, South Asia, Latin America, Eurasia all have their flarepoints.

The commonality between small wars to me has always been they only surprise policy makers; the locals and others who know the regional issues can usually see them coming.

Best
Tom Odom

[Strickland]

Gents,

Small wars as defined by the USMC are already taking place. Darfur , Sudan has seen US airlift transporting my old friends, the Rwandan Patriotic Army, as peacekeepers. The "small war" in the Congo has claimed more than 3 MILLION dead since 1997; periodic flare ups are routine. Zimbabwe is headed toward the abyss; look for bloodletting there in the near to mid term.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict morphs and bubbles as it has since the mid-1930s. I fervently hope that we stay out of that one. Distance and balance are our only friends in that long struggle.

Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria are all candidates for a fiction writer's potential best seller on turmoil. Such fiction would hardly be a stretch.

I won't go into Iraq; the schisms before the war are there after the war. They will be there when we leave.

Those are my regions: Asia, South Asia, Latin America, Eurasia all have their flarepoints.

The commonality between small wars to me has always been they only surprise policy makers; the locals and others who know the regional issues can usually see them coming.

Best
Tom Odom

I thought the USMC defined Small Wars as operations undertaken under executive authority, wherein military force is combined with diplomatic pressure in the internal or external affairs of another state whose government is unstable, inadequate, or unsatisfactory for the preservation of life and of such interests as are determined by the foreign policy of our Nation.

-- Small Wars Manual, 1940

It appears as if many of the previous responses refer to conflicts that are limited in size or scope, and thus improperly labeled Small Wars.

[zenpundit]

Any comment or analysis of the ongoing riots in France ?

I see ( at leastgiven MSM reports) an insurgent operation there remarkably like the intifada launched after Sharon visited the Temple Mount.

French citizens are now demanding the army be called out and are even raising the idea of militias to counteract the gangs of rioters/arsonists

[DDilegge]

While not on our (U.S.) radar screen - i.e. U.S. intervention, the French Muslim riots may well be a harbinger of the future "internal small war" - at this time too much a political hot potato to even mention in official circles and mainstream media.

Unlike past small wars with an adversary confined to particular countries we are now facing a threat that has made inroads across the globe. Nothing new here – except that now many countries who felt insulated from being on the receiving-end of a 9-11-like attack or otherwise attacked by Islamist extremism now have to rethink their over-tolerant policies.

Simply being against the war in Iraq offers no safety-net and many western countries are waking up to the fact that simply being western is a “good enough” reason for being targeted. Go figure…

[Martin]

Sir, DDilegge, France has for some time recognized that they are threatened, regardless of their stance on Iraq. I remember that even at Strasbourg airport they had FAMAS carrying MPs patrolling. They have also made public announcements to this effect.

What I find curious is that there's an ambiguity in deciding who the enemy is. I think the naming of the war (GWOT) is a reflection of an inability to define the threat. So instead of saying something as politically incorrect and bottomless as that it's a war against evil (NK is not Islamic), we say terrorism.

I think we’re not having an official discussion about whether or not we’re at war with Islam partly out of political correctness (yuck) and out of fear that the power of defining this war will move from the US government to those who can scream the loudest. Reciprocally the Islamic extremists would find themselves with more scared recruits and we would have to broaden our definitions on just who it is we’re fighting, until it comes full circle.

We are today far from united in how to combat this threat – an outwardly focus that seems diluted from the fact that people put it into so many different contexts, whether each and everyone are correct is not “clear”. What if we’d have to ask who it is who bears responsibility for what?

So we say that they hate our way of life, and sure they do, and the Europeans in their (ahem, our… as I am regrettably European) delusional vision of moral and intellectual grandeur laughs at such a simplistic explanation. I think people need and deserve a better context to put it in than that, and unless it is explained well, they will create or search for that context elsewhere.

The west may not be at war with Islam, but in failing to understand the people behind the headline of “terrorist threat”, even those who are content to passively give the nod, of course it is unlikely France will identify them. Of course you must be crazy and extreme and dumb if you’re not shouting Vive La Republic at the Champs Elysees. Or maybe their politicians simply don’t understand the orientation of their people, much less the disenfranchised who come from yet more different backgrounds, with much different experiences. Cloudy vision, diluted focus, half-strength blows. EU constitution anyone?

Yes, I do think this is alluding to the future. But I don't think the agitators understand what will happen when the people redefine the threat picture themselves, including as allies criminal organizations concerned about their money, and the state with its military forces.
What China would do in such a case could be interesting to ponder...

I hope that made sense, and please correct me and tell me if I should rather be quiet. I really don't want to step where I shouldn't, and this is about as far as I go.

Martin

[Tom Odom]

Folks,

France's current problems stem from the end of its colonial empire, especially the loss of Algeria which Frenchmen of the day considered to be an extension of European France rather than a mere colony. France ruled its colonies by making the locals nominal French citizens, especially the upper classes. Britain in contrast used indirect rule as much as possible without the fiction of handing out British passports. The exception to that was in the loss of India when Britain did extend citizenship to "Indians" (Indians and Pakistanis) who wanted to leave.

In France's case and under French method, it became very easy to get that French passport if things were not going well in one's native country (colony). In graduate school at the Naval Postgraduate School in 1981, we had to read Franz Fanon's book, Wretched of the Earth[ viewed as something as a fundamental platform for anti-colonial wars. Fanon was one of those upper strata Algerians who was nominally French and who then found himself excluded from both "real" Algerians and "real" Frenchmen. His book is not an easy read because it is an emotional cry, not a logical discussion.

In my 15 years as a FAO, it was quite common to meet Africans who had one foot in Africa and one foot in France. The same is true in North Africa for Tunisians, Algerians, Moroccans, etc. As the decades have passed, the numbers of such quasi immigrants have steadily increased. They never truly integrate into France's social structure and France has allowed that to continue. Right wing politics in France have largely been driven by this alien body; in 1988 during the French elections for President, I was on OP duty with a number of French soldiers in Sinai. Discussions on the election were hot and heavy and the right wing candidate promised Draconian measures if he were elected. He was not. But the French senior officer on duty actually got on the UN radio network and put out a net call to all French observers bemoaning the defeat. Think about that one...

Since then French policy has been accomodation, wise in some ways and foolish in others. France has been sitting on a tinder box of discontent among the immigrants and among those who would support a large scale crackdown. The rise in tensions ampong the Muslim population and the GWOT seem to have acted as the necessary spark.

Other countries in Europe (and the US!) have similar issues. Belgium is an extension of the Congo, Rwanda, and other francophone Africa. Germany has long had a large Turk population. The US has its own illegal immigrant crisis.

The real challenge for France is going to be containing the current violence without pouring gasoline on the fire. I have read reports suggesting premeditated organization to the violence. Certainly that is possible if not absolutely probable. This has been brewing for some time. But I would also say that you should not underestimate the capacity for spontaneous violence in these populations. In Zaire, le pillage was an art form.

best
Tom

[M. J. Dougherty]

ALCON,
Does anyone agree that there is a distinct disconnect between how U.S. military doctrine defines war and how our advesaries define war?