What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

Last week an Iraqi teenage asylum seeker Ahmed Hassan, who had been in foster care for two years, was convicted for a bomb attack on the London Underground, the bomb was faulty and only partly worked, injuring fifty-one. The foster parents knew nothing about his intentions, nor that for a year he had been subject of a counter-radicalisation action. Hassan awaits sentencing.

The carers were interviewed by ITV and this link is a detailed account. It ends with:

We've asked ourselves time and time again 'what did we miss?

Link:http://www.itv.com/news/2018-03-19/s...suspected-him/
The BBC News report is shorter:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43463856

[davidbfpo]

A fascinating blog article from Belgium by:

a journalist working for the Belgian newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws

The explanation:

Families of terror suspects often suffer from all kind of prejudice. It is thought that they are covering for their relatives, that they have contributed to the radicalization themselves, or that they quietly are proud. Sometimes that is true — but it seems rather rare, according to research published in the Belgian newspaper ‘Het Laatste Nieuws’. We examined how people landed on the Belgian list of foreign fighters and recruiters — and found that on a total number of 450 cases where authorities acted on external tip-offs, family members who raised the alarm were the most important factor.

(More on the research process): We based our research on a list of 811 suspected foreign terrorist fighters, people willing to leave for jihad, and recruiters — compiled by the Belgian federal government’s Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA, also known as OCAD in Dutch and OCAM in French). Since the allegations often haven’t been proven in court, we don’t mention full identities unless an individual was publicly named and/or convicted already for a terrorist offense. It is crucial to add that a single allegation like the ones we mention, never was enough to be put on the list. That happened only after further investigations resulted in additional evidence. Finally, it has to be stressed that the percentages do not refer to the total number of suspects, but only to the 450 cases for which the list explicitly mentions an external tip-off as first indication or decisive confirmation of the suspected radicalism.

In a possibly unique way they explain the 'external sources' who provided tip-offs:

1. 26% denounced by relatives
2. 25% were flagged by foreign partners (notably Turkey)
3. 13% gave too much away on social media
4. 5% were exposed by public sources
5. 4% spilled the beans themselves (one wrote to the Belgian King)
6. 2% detected at schools / universities
7. 1% reported by employers / co-workers
8. 24% could not be classified (amendment after author update)

The individuals merely detected by police and intelligence work (or without any mention of external sources, at least) were not included in the 450 cases I've studied, so they are the remainder of the total number of 811.
Link:https://emmejihad.wordpress.com/2018...amily-members/

[davidbfpo]

Both the mother and wife of Khalid Masood, who killed four pedestrians and a police officer in a car and knife attack @ Westminster Bridge and the Palace of Westminster in March 2017, have offered their evidence on what they knew beforehand.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ry-personality

[davidbfpo]

A "lone wolf" example of a plot detected and in the USA:

A man who planned to blow himself up in Washington DC on the day of next month's mid-term elections has been held and charged, US prosecutors say.They say Paul Rosenfeld, 56, built a 200lb (91kg) explosive device and wanted to detonate it on the National Mall in the capital on 6 November.
They say he wanted to draw attention to his belief in "sortition" - a political theory that advocates the random selection of government officials.
This came after an individual had received letters and text messages from the suspect about the plot, and had alerted the authorities.

Link:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...on-day-n918771 and cited text from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45818990

[davidbfpo]

From an Australian newspaper, written after the Melbourne street attack (where three were stabbed, one died and culprit was shot dead):

Most terrorism experts are agreed that the untempered lecturing of Muslim communities is counterproductive. It denies their history of co-operation and hints at some sinister recalcitrance. But it’s unlikely that these very public addresses are intended for Islamic leaders – they’re meant to reinforce a general impression of the government’s strength, even if it may perversely undermine it.
I spoke with one federal police officer with extensive experience in community policing and liaison with mosques. “Generally, the relationship between police and the Muslim community is good,” they said. “Counterterrorist and intelligence agencies understand that we get a lot of our intelligence from within the Islamic community, so it is important to foster a strong and lasting relationship. Generally, there is a multicultural liaison officer in each city, [for example] the City of Dandenong, that works directly with all the different communities and their leaders. These liaison officers are often the first point of contact between the community leaders and police. Some of the mosques tend to not be as receptive and are sceptical of police, while others have integrated well and collaborate well with police, sharing information openly and freely.
“My concern from a policing perspective is to not demonise the Muslim community. They are our primary source of intelligence in relation to radicalised individuals. I don’t think the greater community appreciate that this is where we get our intelligence from – members within that community. They have to continue to feel comfortable in coming forward and co-operating with police.”
Peter Lentini reinforced this: “The record needs to be set straight: when these problems started... take an investigation like [Operation] Pendennis – they actually began with tips from Muslim communities themselves. So that myth is shattered. That’s extremely important. It demonstrates that Muslims follow the law. I’ve written extensively on this, as have others. Many of these people have come from circumstances that anyone in a uniform is someone who may harm them. So for them to come to police, it’s a big vote of confidence in the state.

Link:https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/...15423732007149

You may have to register to view, as their system allows one free article per week.

[davidbfpo]

Moderator adds: Copied from UK CT thread and edited down for this thread

The Independent:

Public tip-offs to terror police halve in year, officials warn as more UK plots foiled

Link:http://https://www.independent.co.uk...-a8741411.html

From the later:

Mr Basu said the flow of intelligence from members of the public was vital. “I know some people are still reluctant to speak to us,” he acknowledged. “To them I say, reporting your concerns to us won’t ruin lives, but it might save them.”
In 2017, more than 31,000 reports were made to counterterror police, but last year the number fell to 13,000.
In both years, more than a fifth of tips were “very significant”, leading to the identification of a suspect or plot, or aiding prosecutions.

Locally a senior CTU officer added a little, with my emphasis:

However, crucial intelligence from the public has helped the police and the security services have prevented 18 terror attacks in just under two years. Twenty-two per cent of all reports we receive from members of the public produce important intelligence which is helpful to our investigations. “Like other criminals, terrorists need to plan and that creates opportunities for police and the security services to discover and stop these attacks before they happen. So if you see or hear something unusual or suspicious trust your instincts and ACT by reporting it in confidence by phone or online. The important thing for people to remember is that no report is a waste of our time. Reporting your concerns to us won’t ruin lives, but it might save them."

Link:https://www.west-midlands.police.uk/...-west-midlands

[davidbfpo]

Id'd via Twitter a very short report by their Security Service (PST) and in Norwegian - thankfully someone has done an English summary! The report has the graphics which can be matched to the English text below.

Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian SME commented on Twitter:

Short but valuable new report by Norwegian Security Service @PSTnorge on how terrorist plots are discovered. It’s the first such study I’ve seen based on classified data (as opposed to data from media sources).

The report is based on 91 disrupted plots/prevented attacks in 13 Western countries between 2012 and 2019, and includes both Islamist and right wing extremist plots. Of the 91 disrupted plots, 43% were discovered by intel/security services, and 28% by regular police. The remaining 29% were initiated by information from private persons (18%) and employees in public/private sectors (11%). The report sought to identify the the "initial indicators" that first had alerted the authorities to attack planning, using 6 categories: Expressed threat(s); a tip from a family or friend; a tip from a third party; online activity; regular police work; or other. Online activity (45%) and third-party tip-offs to authorities (23%) were most common, followed by tip-offs from family/friends (10%), regular police work (9%) and expressed threats (3%). They assess the actual % of family/friends aware of terror plans to be higher. Based on this, PST has listed certain behaviors, statements and material acquisitions they want the public to be aware of and notify them of. This list has been communicated in several Norwegian news outlets this week.

Link: https://www.pst.no/globalassets/arti...rrorangrep.pdf

[davidbfpo]

The blogger Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi has translated the PST study. His introduction cited in part:

The study covers 91 disrupted terrorist plots in the period 2012-2019 whereby the initial indicators of how the plots were uncovered are known to the Norwegian Police Security Service. Among other things, the study argues from the data it examines that family and acquaintances of would-be terrorists in particular need to be more willing to step up and inform the authorities. The study concludes with an outline of scenarios (e.g. expression of extremist attitudes and acquisitions of things like firearms for no obvious reason) where people should inform the police and security services of any suspicions they might have, acting on instinct even if they are not fully sure.

Link to translation (with original shown):http://www.aymennjawad.org/2020/02/n...rvice-study-on

[davidbfpo]

As part of a wider review of the UK Prevent programme CREST, a UK policing and crime "think tank" have commissioned opinion polling. For this topic it found that:

Some 67% of British Muslims surveyed said they would tip off the authorities about someone being radicalised, compared with 63% of the wider public.The survey also found: 63% of Muslims and 67% of the wider public worried about Islamist extremism; 64% of Muslims and 71% of the wider public said they trusted the police

Link to report:https://www.crestadvisory.com/post/e...sm-and-prevent and link to BBC News story:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51676923

[davidbfpo]

From the FBI, published in July 2019 and caught this week. In summary:

contains a broad list of 46 behavioral indicators listed in color-coded groupings of how clearly the indicators might demonstrate an individual’s likelihood of engaging in terrorist activity. (My bold) An FBI analysis shows that in recent years, about one in four internationally inspired terrorism plots here in the U.S. was disrupted with the help of tips from community leaders and the public.

Citing an agent:It allows our partners to educate themselves concerning extremist behavior,” he said, “and assists them to make an informed decision on a potential international terrorism-inspired extremist and how to report it to law enforcement.”

Link: Homegrown Violent Extremist Mobilization Indicators, 2019 Edition

Caveat: slightly off topic. CREST is UK government (security agencies funded academic group) and this week has published a paper 'Behavioural-Focused Protective Security Programmes' and the Abstract states:

The emphasis in this report is on academic literature from 2017 onwards, however, due to the extremely limited research in this area, it draws from work published outside this period and grey literature. It also includes work from comparable fields, including studies relating to general criminality. To supplement the limited research, four studies are the subject of more detailed analysis. The report is in two parts; the first focuses on public reporting and bystanders’ motivations or barriers for doing so. Part two examines how hostile actors perceive and experience security measures. It is important to understand protective security from both perspectives to understand its effectiveness.

Link to outline (which contains a link to the PDF report): https://crestresearch.ac.uk/resource...ty-programmes/