Quote Originally Posted by Tom Odom View Post
Steve,

Returning to this comment for a moment, let's go back in time a bit and broaden it because I think you made a key point that I have dealt with for decades. First of all I would say this applies in general wars not just insurgencies. It is quite common to see the Cold War bipolar structure as a limiting structure for general conflicts--the view that war between two countries or camps was too dangerous unless controlled and manipulated for gain by either or both of the major players. While I believe this was true in that Cold War parameters did tend to put brackets around conflicts, certain conflicts used those brackets to set goals that were less than "victory," ones that could be achieved before Cold War patrons forced some sort of settlement. Because it was my back yard, I look at the Arab-Israeli Wars as fitting this model. Indeed the very essence of IDF force structure, mobilization, and strategy is built around the idea that wars must be short and exported, adding terrain and creating facts as rapidly as possible. Where Anwar Sadat distinguished himself as a strategist was his adoption and adaptation of this model in the "73 War.

As for small wars, LIC, COIN, or whatever we call them, this less than total victory also played out in the Cold War framework. Conflicts in Africa were not necessarily about total victory. Regional secession was often de facto and not de jure. Katanga began as a Western interests-sponsored secession that was fought actively by governments of the same Western interests, the Soviets (at least rhetorically), and the United Nations. But over time and subsequent Shaba wars, the region became a de facto separate political entity. In late 1993, the governor of Shaba renamed Shaba, Katanga. Standing besiade him at the time was Nguz Karl I Bond who Mobutu had convicted of treason after the Shaba II War. The governor and Bond drove to the ceremony in Moise Tshombe's old car. That victory required 33 years to achieve and it was for regional goals, not total independence.

What changed somewhat as the Cold War ended was the likelihood of Cold War pressures moving to shut down or control the outcomes of such conflicts. Even without that control valve, very few have escalated to full blown conflicts resulting in clear cut victory for one side. The major exception was the RPF victory in 94 but that victory set the stage for an even greater conflict in the Congo and that one is not over.

Finally in closing this long-winded comment, I believe what you are saying we should do--change our strategy and doctrine to identify finding a resolution that both sides can live with rather than total victory by the government-- is already happening in the case of Iraq through sectarian pressures.

Best

Tom

That may be the outcome in Iraq but I think it's going to cause Vietnam-like political turmoil in the U.S. Because we see counterinsurgency as war and the American way of war is to win, not a cut a deal which allows the enemy to attain his objectives, there will be widespread discontent over such a deal. That's kind of what I'm getting at: that the way we conceptualize counterinsurgency creates unrealistic expectations. Then when those expectations aren't met, we just reject counterinsurgency for a period of time. Then we start the whole cycle over.