Quote Originally Posted by Pragmatic Thinker View Post
NIE states "We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11."

Clapper states, "Our greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts since 9/11 have constrained the ability of al Qaeda to attack the U.S. again and have led terrorist groups to view the homeland as a harder target to strike than it was on 9/11."

I am impressed that verbatim everyone is saying the same thing...so much for independent analysis of the threat. Also, Clapper does a great job of plugging DoD and all it has done to prepare itself for the "next big one" which only time will tell if we're truly ready or not. I won't start to go down the Hurricane Katrina road, but will leave it out there as a possible indication that we're a little too heavy on topside of response management and too light at the actual response where the real lifting gets done...many things contribute to this which is a discussion all its own.

My fear is that people assume no attack on the homeland equates to marginilization of Al Qaeda and its ideology. However, this doesn't apply to Iraq where Al Qaeda is marketed as the "boogeyman" thus justifying military action and resource expenditure. In my opinion, this is a lot of verbal flatulatence trying to "remind" Americans that the enemy is still out there but not to fear he is in Iraq and not coming to our doorstep. Real change in policy will occur when the next 9-11 style attack does occur and the public once again demands something be done.

Lastly, I did like Clapper's defense of Musharraf and explanations of how the tribal areas are used as a base by AQ and Taliban, this is knowledge that has been around since the Soviet-Afghan War...so much for remembering and heeding history.
I will say up front that I am a Clapper fan as we go back to Desert Shield when I had an analyst team brief him as the USAF ACSI (the AF G2 is a 2 star) on our initial efforts to template Iraqi forces in Kuwait. Three + years later he was Director of DIA as I was down range in Zaire and then Rwanda. He would actually send messages to us in the field that showed he was reading what we were doing and what we reported. He had me come in for an office call in the fall of 94 while I was in town with the Rwandan VP/DefMin MG Kagame. We talked with no horse holders present for some time. Later (much) he was kind enough to review my memoirs for Mil Review.

Clapper got cross wise as the Director odf the NatGeospatial agency because when asked by Congress, he told them NGA should and could work effectively for the new DNI. He was relieved of that job, probably at the behest of Cambone. And now thanks to Mike McConnel as the new DNI, Hayden as the DCI, and Gates as SecDef, Clapper has Cambone's job.

While I think the NIE summary as released is fluff, it is hopeful in some ways because it does not follow a political line. I think what you saw in Clapper's piece backs that up.

I agree that the real test is yet to come. Hopefully we (the US) will have our stuff in one rucksack. You and I both know that hope is not a technique.

best

Tom