....Peace in Sudan is being frustrated on all fronts by the NCP regime, which views the transformation of the country as a threat to its survival. Obstacles to CPA implementation continue to grow, and a collapse of the agreement is a real possibility. International efforts have become so concentrated on Darfur, albeit without much success, that CPA implementation – the bedrock for peaceful transformation in the country – is being ignored, in effect a reversal of the situation in 2003-2004, when the focus on ending the North-South war led to diplomatic reluctance to address the unfolding catastrophe in Darfur. The international community is unwilling to hold the parties responsible for violations, or even to speak out about them, lest it imperil already problematic NCP cooperation on Darfur. The situation is complex, the threat of additional conflicts elsewhere in the country very real, but the core of lasting peace is already entrenched in the CPA and the interim national constitution – it does not need to be renegotiated or facilitated, merely enforced and implemented, with emphasis on the core national reforms and the democratisation process.
The CPA’s collapse would mean return to large-scale war in much of Sudan. Since the Khartoum-SPLA war ended in 2005, both sides have been rearming and preparing for possible resumption of hostilities. Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea were all destabilised to various degrees by the earlier war, just as Darfur is producing deadly spill-over effects in Chad and the Central African Republic. Unlike the last war, however, this one would probably not be limited to the South, Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile. It could easily connect with the conflict in Darfur and spread to other disaffected areas of the North, leading to Sudan’s first truly national civil war. The impact on at least all nine neighbouring countries would be devastating. The threat is very real and requires an urgent international response....
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