Hi Tequila,
LOLOL.Originally Posted by tequila
Actually, none of these are necessary conditions for that scenario to work. Let me go through your points and show why.
1. possesses nearly-omniscient foresight in economic matters. This is unnecessary since the readily observable trend of US manufacturing and consuming interests has been quite available, and talked about in both the academic and popular press, for the past 25 years or so. The effects, in both economic and social terms, of shifting production outside of CONUS were apparent to anyone looking at the automotive industry by 1972 - think Flint Michigan.
As far as China's "awareness" or "foresight" is concerned, China still uses a rather outdated, almost paleo-Marxist, model of social development theory based on LH Morgan, JJ Bachoven and Marx in Sociology, Anthropology and Political Economy (I ave a number of friends who were trained in China). The one thing that that model does, however, stress is a production based model.
2. a long-range plan to destroy American power by displacing manufacturing out of the United States and simultaneously collecting vast sums of American dollars. They don't need a model or plan to do this, it was already being done by the Western feeding frenzy to get access to the Chinese markets. As far as the displacement of American manufacturing is concerned, this has been going on for decades. All the Chinese have to do is to recognize the trend and take advantage of the opportunity. Given that the US's trade deficit with China last year was 232.5 Billion U$ (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/...ap4007555.html), I would point out the China doesn't "need"a long-range plan to collect vast sums of money.
Once again, there is no requirement for the Chinese government to actual plot or plan, only to recognize advantages and opportunities when they arise.
3. the power and ability to do so these things over an extended period of time. All China has to do is to a) recognize trends and b) take advantage of them, which is something that is, IMO, quite likely. Furthermore, it doesn't have to be the Chinese government that "orchestrates" any of this. The concept of "mutual arising" may well be at play here with the government playing of the economic success of the southern areas, especially Shanghai.
They don't have to be. Frankly, when you look at what is going on in China itself, including the cultural stress and strain between the north and the south, economic dislocations, etc., China is actually quite fragile (somewhat analogous to the US in the 1850's). This certainly hasn't stopped the government from playing off on the opportunities they have handed to them on a silver platter.
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the effects would be in the US of a trade war with China?
Marc
Bookmarks