Kosovo Independence

[Rob Thornton]

Its interesting. In the last year I get the feeling that the European leadership is starting to re-evaluate its relationship with the United States, and reconsider its position on security related issues.

It seems to make for a renewed need for better relations with the U.S. One indicator may be the recent visit from the French President to the U.S.

I think we're going to see some interesting security relationships form over the next 5-10 years. The basis will probably come out of traditional partners, but there looks to be some curve balls out there. Lots of challenges ahead I suppose.

[Jedburgh]

CSRC, 6 Sep 07: Kosovo - Third Time Lucky?

This paper provides an analysis of the current impasse in international community policy towards resolution of the Kosovo status issue, with consequent dangers for regional stability.

Key Points
* Little real progress has been made in 2007 towards a settlement.
* Kosovo is likely to become increasingly unstable in this climate of uncertainty.
* The European Union is unlikely to be able to act as an arbiter of the competing nationalist claims.
* A clear lead by the international community under US leadership is urgently required.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 16 Oct 07: Serbia: Maintaining Peace in the Presevo Valley

Any future instability in southern Serbia could come from either the Presevo Valley exiles in the Gnjilane/Gjilan region of Kosovo or Serbia’s response to Kosovo independence. It is difficult to imagine Rasim Ljajic, with all his other responsibilities, being able to take the necessary steps to make the CB function much better by the end of 2007. Belgrade, which seems intent on pursuing a course that could lead to partition of Kosovo, may enter a prolonged state of confusion following an independence decision. It is also quite likely Kosovo independence would find Serbia with an angry government and populace, tempted to lash out at vulnerable targets.....

[Jedburgh]

CSRC, 2 Nov 07: What Could the EU Accomplish in Kosovo? Between the Hammer and the Anvil

Key Points

* The EU presence in Kosovo is critical to prevent possible conflicts and further disintegration of the region;

* A multi-ethnic Kosovo has failed and can not function if the current state of affairs persists in the short and medium term;

* The EU integration mechanisms could bypass the conflict of principles of state sovereignty and self-determination, which is one of the key problems of the Kosovo crisis.

Complete 17 page paper at the link.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 6 Dec 07: Kosovo Countdown: A Blueprint for Transition

Kosovo’s transition to the status of conditional, or supervised, independence has been greatly complicated by Russia’s firm support of Serbia’s refusal to accept that it has lost its one-time province. Recognition of conditional independence has broad international, and certainly European Union (EU) and American, support. Under threat of Moscow’s veto, the Security Council will not revoke its Resolution 1244 of 1999 that acknowledged Serbian sovereignty while setting up the UN Mission (UNMIK) to prepare Kosovo for self-government pending a political settlement on its future status. Nor will the Council be allowed to approve the plan for a conditionally independent Kosovo devised by the Secretary-General’s special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, earlier this year and authorise the EU-led missions meant to implement that plan.

While the Troika of U.S., EU and Russian diplomats explored the bleak prospects for Kosovo-Serbia agreement over the past several months, Brussels and Washington have also been able to use the time to devise ways to support Kosovo’s transition to conditional independence without needing the support of the Security Council. The EU now has a better sense of the need to maintain its unity and take primary responsibility for the crisis. But Kosovo and the wider Western Balkans have become less stable, and further delay would worsen matters: this is not a situation that can drift comfortably into “frozen conflict” status. Once the Contact Group reports the inevitable Troika failure to the UN Secretary-General on or about 10 December, the “Quint” – France, Germany, Italy, the UK and U.S. – should, despite Serbian and Russian opposition, promptly begin implementing a plan to orchestrate a peaceful transition culminating in Kosovo’s conditional independence in May 2008....

Complete 35 page paper at the link.