Eritrea: catch all

[Beelzebubalicious]

Good work. Thanks.

An alleged and unverified Unicorn spotting in the horn! These unicorns do get around. It would explain why the E&E haven't come to blow yet...I once had an alleged and unverified sasquatch spotting in the horn, but that's another story...

I think the US government should seize that island between Yemen and Eritrea they fought briefly over a couple of years ago (Sakhalin?) and make it a US Naval base. I'm sure nobody would mind. Seriously, I would love to see the US Navy chase around pirates, but I would think of "black ship down" and would think twice...

[JJackson]

I hope the Unicorns have the good sense to keep out of this area.

US foreign policy seems to have reverted to a cold war black & white mode with Islamic replacing Communist and playing the part of black with white being painted liberally using the ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ maxim. Regretfully some, nay most, of those daubed in white paint are in reality an extremely dark grey.

Where to begin? The US giving the nod to Ethiopia to invade Somalia to oust the UIC is unbelievably short-sighted, after 16 years of chaos there was an area of stability creeping out from Mogadishu, piracy was down and the UIC had popular support. Yes the law was Sharia but then the population was predominantly Muslim so this would seem a lot more reasonable – to them - than our legal system. Were there AQ and other terrorist organisations with influence in the country? Sure, ditto for any Muslim country. If removing their influence was the goal it would have been a much better option to pat the UIC on the back for what they had achieved, work with them on piracy, engage them diplomatically, offer financial/reconstruction aid & quietly work towards the removal of those with overt links to terrorism. The current strategy is doomed to failure, the Ethiopian occupying force is universally hated - and their operational tactics are making them more so. The puppet government has no power base. The UIC have not gone away and will return once the Ethiopians withdraw, as they must if they don’t want to just be picked of a few at a time. The AU forces are no keener to deploy than ours would be for obvious reasons, they will not be welcome and the people look back at the UIC rule as the halcyon days.
Eritrea feel betrayed by the UN for not enforcing the terms of the cease fire agreement with Ethiopia (Badme et al) and, while they probably would prefer to not get involved in Somalia, can’t risk the Ethiopians becoming entrenched so will aid anyone fighting them as a matter of national defence (as a side note I suspect they principally blame the US for manoeuvres within the UN on behalf of Ethiopian interests). So now we have Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea in the game.
While international interest in Sudan is principally focused on the humanitarian disaster in Darfur and the attendant destabilisation in Chad, the bigger problem comes in 2011 in the south. After years of fighting the SPLA agreed a truce with the north which lead to an interesting new constitution which encoded a defacto split into north and south. The south kept the SPLA army, had a different banking system and has the right to raise taxes but the key feature is article 222

The Referendum on Self-Determination
222 (1) Six months before the end of the six-year interim period,
there shall be an internationally monitored referendum, for
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the people of Southern Sudan organized by Southern
Sudan Referendum Commission in cooperation with the
National Government and the Government of Southern
Sudan,
(2) The people of Southern Sudan shall either:-
(a) confirm unity of the Sudan by voting to sustain the
system of government established under the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement and this
Constitution, or
(b) vote for secession.

Despite international sanctions the economy has shown healthy growth helped by becoming a net oil exporter – the constitution has a lengthy section on how this oil is to be divided up. Much of the friction between the north and south has – surprise, surprise – been about oil as the majority of the fields are in the south but the pipeline, ports and refineries are in the north and the perception is the north is trying to grab what it can now prior to risking the south – and its oil - voting for independence. The big questions are will the north really just say OK if the south exercises this option and even if the south does go for it how will it export? Kenya seems the logical route if relations with the north fail. Given the growth in strength of the MB in Egypt and the deteriorating situation in NE Congo (and its relations with Uganda) this whole area needs as little interference from the West as we can manage, fools (and Unicorns) go in …