China's Expanding Role in Africa

[Mark O'Neill]

Mark,
Superb Post - the figures, who is doing the investing, how they are investing, where they are investing and the result of the investments all provide perspective.

Based on what you wrote, do you think the attention is good or bad for Africa?

Thanks, Rob

G'Day Rob,

Frankly, I think that a good or bad outcome is in the balance. In the best case scenario (ie everyone plays 'nice' and acts in accordance with their rhetoric on the issue), things should be relatively 'ok'.

I say relatively because my experience in Africa tells me that that even the 'good' can often work out in a way that we might see as 'not quite right' but at the same time be 'quite acceptable' from a local standpoint.

The worst case scenario is a nightmare that would make us and the Africans look back at the proxy wars of the Cold War as the 'good old days'. Any number of issues - Strategic competition between US/ China / Europe; the growth of Islam (or radicalisation) on the Eastern Littoral (or Nigeria) ; HIV AIDS; heightened trade imbalances post Doha, Environmental issues (deforestation/ drought/ global warming) to name but a few, could act singularly or in some unfortunate concert to really shake things up.

Which way you think it will go can often come down to whether you are feeling like the glass is half full or half empty on any given day.

I believe that a key factor to mitigate against the worst case situation occurring is developing true understanding of the likely issues in the West. In that way informed decisions can be made about what it all means, and what needs to be done. AFRICOM might offer some hope of helping the US with that, only time will tell.

Cheers

Mark