Bin Laden: before Abbottabad (merged thread)

[SWJED]

Moderator at work

I have merged six thread here, to create a Bin Laden thread or collection that covers him before the Abbottabad raid and his demise. In a moment a post-Abbottabad thread will be created. The thread was renamed too (ends).


20 Nov. London Daily Telegraph - Messages of Bin Laden Published.

Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden is billed as the first accurate compendium of the terrorist leader's words, threats and ruminations from 1994 to 2004.

Its editors have rooted out many statements they identified as forgeries and retranslated to correct "horrendous" errors.

Bin Laden's terms for America's surrender appeared after the September 2001 suicide attacks and include demands that amount to the abandonment of much of Western life.

[Sarajevo071]

Groups: Bin Laden plans video on 9/11
by Lee Keath, Associated Press

Osama bin Laden will release a new video in the coming days ahead of the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in what would be the first new images of the terror mastermind in nearly three years, al-Qaida's media arm announced Thursday.

Analysts noted that al-Qaida tends to mark the Sept. 11 anniversary with a slew of messages, and the Department of Homeland Security said it had no credible information warning of an imminent threat to the United States.

Still, bin Laden's appearance would be significant. The al-Qaida leader has not appeared in new video footage since October 2004, and he has not put out a new audiotape in more than a year, his longest period without a message.
...


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/...in_laden_video

[goesh]

I believe Binny is dead and twice burned on the Pakisani frontier, i.e. cremated and the remains burned again, by his body guards to forever prevent Western forensics from being able to prove his early demise. He clearly had sepsis from the last known video. However if AQ can cobble togther and cut and paste and copy and put one on the air, it will bolster US resolve to stay the course in Iraq. After all, even the Democrats acknowledge the vicious terrorism being enacted on Iraqi civilians by AQ and common sense mandates that they be killed where found. I do think it will take another 5-7 years before Iraqi forces can take full control of security for their nation, of course that is just a civilian's opinion. It could take 6-8 years.

[Sarajevo071]

Except of the "small" fact that AQ WAS in Afghanistan (only in ONE part while other part belonged to Northern Alliance) and that AQ was NEVER in Iraq (like Bush & Co. lied)... AQ and terrorism, and now we can see HUGE Iranian influence, came in Iraq "thanks" to US.

I believe Democrats did acknowledge the vicious anti-human campaign against Iraq and civilians even decade before this latest war in Iraq, and human cost of sanctions. One should not forget that and ignore effects and feelings of people who lived thru that and lost loves one during that decade.

Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

[Stan]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

[RTK]

Naively assuming OBL is still kickin’ (we haven’t seen him for 3 years) and using Slapout’s criminal behavior schematic, this simply doesn’t jive.

Would he risk all, nearly three years later to make a video with yet another recently dyed beard ?

Perhaps he needs to motivate his support elements, as the war is not going well for them. His appearance will no doubt grant the POTUS unequivocal congressional support well into next year.

The American public will be outraged and the stakes and bounty on his head will only grow.

I may need a witch doctor or at least an anthropologist to explain this one

He may have dyed his beard, but did anyone notice he hasn't changed his clothes in 3 years?

[goesh]

That purported picture/video of Binny could darn well be anyone. When I now just saw it the first thing that popped into my mind is an old bum of a neighbor that lives down the road a piece from me. Wrap a turbin on Old Bill, that's what everyone calls him this neighbor down the road and you have Bin Laden. Folks in these parts have said that for several years now but old Bill is a real loner and has a bad reputation and is always packing a shotgun and nobody has felt like telling him that to his face. This isn't very sophisiticated IMO. They've doctored someone up to look like Binny and are trying to pass it off as the real deal.

[pcmfr]

I'm pretty sure the video is authentic. But given that smart people still believe it's not, leads me to question why our own IO guys, or some smart kid with editing software haven't produced videos of UBL eating a pulled pork sandwich in the company of hooter's waitresses, while announcing that he's throwing in the towel on this whole global jihad thing and converting into a Methodist. Joking aside, I am now beginning to believe that the continued sanctuary of AQ senior leadership and their media branch in FATA is much more a problem than we initially belived.

[bourbon]

The transcript of UBL's video is available for download, via MSNBC, in PDF here:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/se...transcript.pdf

[slapout9]

Posted by Sarajevo:
Bin Laden, alive or dead, not matter that much anymore. Symbolically, yes, but strategically... He did his thing for AQ and Salafi Jihadi. They, Salafi Jihadi/Wahabi do not have celebrities or icons. Most of them would love to see OBL martyred. I am not so concerned if he is alive or not but rather what this message can mean.

I think this is a pretty good analysis. We need to be figuring out what the message is? Is he sending signals to strike while General Patraeous(cain't spell,sorry General) is giving his briefing? Is it something else? Is it just propaganda? The answers to those questions are what is important for us to figure out.

PS my gut tells me he is alive!

[Sarajevo071]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

[Tacitus]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

[Sarajevo071]

Bush Jr. said he is not concern with him anymore. Remember?

[Uboat509]

No. What he said was that Bin Laden is not our only threat nor is killing or capturing him going to end the war or cause our enemies to quit. There are quite a few people in the government who believe that we should just be focused on finding Bin Laden. We cannot afford to focus on Bin Laden and ignore everything else.

SFC W

[Tacitus]

Oh, I understand the point that it is more than Bin Laden, the man, that is the problem. I can grasp this logic. It is the ideology he articulates that is the problem. Specifically, it is the Wahhabism branch of Sunni Islam that is arguably the ultimate source. This Wahhabism which is spreading to Muslim lands draws financial support, ideology and even recruits from its entrenched heartland in ....Mesopotamia, of course. Well, actually no, it comes out of Saudi Arabia.

Call me crazy or a dreamer, but the man is responsible for the deaths of around 3,000 American citizens and billions of dollars of damage. To me, at least, he matters a little bit more than the deputy commander of Al Qaeda in Ramadi or Baquba.

FDR requested Sec. of the Navy Knox "to get Yamamoto." The U.S. navy seemed to take the attack on Pearl Harbor personal, and killed the author of it. Anyone interested in how we dealt with this man can read all about it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_Yamamoto#Death

[Ken White]

Frankly, I don't know where this willingness to assert that Bin Laden is dead and his latest manifesto is a fake comes from.

that comes from the fact that he does seem to be wearing the samw clothes for weeks on end. Not to mention that it is to thier advantage for him to be "alive.' ours, too to a lesser extent. Big Martyrs attract more little martyrs.

If I was king (perish the thought), I'd assume he was alive and up to something until he was in custody/killed/captured.

You'd probably be right but you'd also know tha if he goes, Zawahiri who's the real driving force would take charge. If Zawahiri is killed, then someone else will and so on, ad infinitum. Thus better to preserve the fiction and leave him alone.

And like your average man on the street, I cringe when I hear talk about how capturing him doesn't matter. It sounds too much like a rationalization for not "bringing him to justice, or justice to him".

Hunh. Interesting. I used to hang out around Bristol -- well, Kingsport, actually -- many years ago and the folks up there must've changed in the last forty years. Most of them then would have more concerned with vengnance than justice.

Be that as it may, where would you "bring him to justice" and on what charge? A few guys come to him with an idea, he helps them get money to do what they wanted to do. He said a lot of stuff on videos and tape which may or may not be admissable but which in any event are just words. you might get a Conspiracy charge, little more, I suspect.

[Rex Brynen]

..and there, I thought OBL was attending the APEC summit....

[slapout9]

Did you read that MSNBC transcript?! If you didn't you should. Seams message is completely toward U.S. and Americans.

Yes, I read it. One media report I saw said the meassge was a lot of incoherent thoughts. I didn't take it that way. It was a very well laid out piece of propaganda and I agree it was all pointed toward the US.

Sarajevo what is your view on the speech?

[Tacitus]

I don't know his taylor or valet. I don't know why he favors a particular suit (or whatever they call this kind of garb). A trademark? A uniform? Maybe he just thinks he looks good in it. Why was Abe Lincoln always walking around in a black coat and top hat? What's up with that?

But I'll take it all back if y'all are offended. Assuming he's alive... YAWN. Big deal. He's just a cog in a wheel.

Actuallly, I don't want to bring him to justice. It was the President who said it was either bring him to justice, or justice to him.

It was in "Breaker Morant", a good flick for anybody out there who hasn't seen it, where Morant said "I believe it is customary in war to kill as many of the enemy as possible." I guess that pretty much sums up how me, and folks in Bristol/Kingsport/Johnson City feel about Bin Laden. They definitely want to "bring justice to him."

[Ken White]

The clothing bit was directed at the fact that they've used the same pictures of him in at least two of the last three videos (haven't seen this one yet).

Can't speak for anyone else but I'm not offended -- why would I be. He's more than a cog in a wheel but he is not irreplaceable, no one is. He does have symbolic value and we don't need a martyr. The more important point is that AQ is not a heirarchial organization, it's amorphous -- the old starfish; cut a ray off and it just generates another to replace it. His death or departure wouldn't make much difference to the organization other than symbolically.

Still there is that symbology. His continued breathing is really in both our interests. Even if it isn't satisfying.

Presidents say a lot of dumb things; if they didn't, we wouldn't be able to say "What the President really meant was..."

And I'm glad to hear the Tri-Cities area hasn't changed that much; Good for them. Bring justice to him is one thing; bringing him to justice would likely pose more problems than it would solve. Now, if he isn't dead and we can just find him. He's as hard to locate as Eric Rudolph was...