In Pakistan Musharraf is in an impossible situation; he came to power by coup, is not popular, leads a state created & defined by religion - during the dissolution if colonial India - and has the much larger & more powerful ‘old enemy’ to his south. His situation was comparatively stable pre 9/11; he had the India problem to his south - but domestically could command popular support here. To his north he had a Muslim Taliban which was not a problem to him until the US issued its ‘you are either with us or against us’ ultimatum. Scared of the US aggressively taking sides with India he acquiesced and joined Bush’s ‘war on terror’ - initially not domestically popular but manageable. As US Islamophobia increased and disastrous policy initiatives unfolded in Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon and Somalia being ‘in league’ with the US has considerably weakened him domestically emboldening the Supreme Court to defy him and the already quasi-independent north to disown him completely. To take aggressive action in the north – where intelligence is very poor – at a time when he is trying to reposition himself as a candidate for democratically elected President will make him unpopular to the point that his rigging of the elections will need to be so blatant it risks severe civil disobedience. Obama - and others - statements regarding uninvited military action within Pakistani sovereign territory aren't helpful and provide a propaganda bonanza in the tribal areas. The problem is – as always – backlash; have we not learnt from all our interventions into the domestic politics of other countries propping up corrupt regimes because they profess some antipathy to our current ideological bet noir (for last century read Communism and for this Islamism) risks popular overthrow with the new power swinging the other way and blaming America with a vengeance for their previous suffering. What kind of nuclear Pakistan do you think will emerge if we push Musharraf to a point he cannot contain his own very Muslim people? Not that I necessarily think getting rid of him is a bad thing he is a nasty piece of work but following the usual US ‘lesser of two evils’ logic he is - currently - our nasty piece of work.
Some links:
US documents show Pakistan gave Taliban military aid:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/S...149588,00.html
Some insight into the pre 9/11 relationship between Pakistan & Taliban Afghanistan.
Generals Waiting in the wings:
http://www.dawn.com/2007/09/07/top4.htm
Musharraf needs to step down from the Army to run as a civilian for President, this article discusses who he may pick to replace himself. Given the role of the military in Pakistani politics not an insignificant decision.
Humour - Pakistan-style: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6984262.stm
An interesting look at the juxtaposition of roles amongst those jocking for the PM's job.
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